The WR1 Analytical Model Rankings are one of our member favorites each year at Dynasty Football Factory. Months of research and years of dialing in and enhancing the model to accurately predict future wide receiver fantasy value bring us to today.
These WR1 model rankings will be your ultimate guide to predicting which prospects will produce the most fantasy points in their NFL career.
For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a proprietary formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future fantasy production for incoming rookie wide receivers. There are so many advanced metrics out there nowadays; we here at DFF know it can be difficult to navigate which ones matter and how much. The WR1 model takes all that hard work and boils it down to one easy-to-understand number. The model scores rookies on 13 predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating score. The goal is to provide an easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend hundreds of hours dissecting different metrics. Based on how the prospect scores in the model, I provide their % probability of achieving at least one top 24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season based on past prospects who have received a similar score range.
The WR1 model consistently outperforms NFL draft capital in predicting the future fantasy success of incoming prospects. For a full breakdown of the model’s past performance, click this link. You can also find last year’s WR1 model article here, where we were one of the very few publications to have Malik Nabers as the top wide receiver overall instead of Marvin Harrison Jr.
As you will read in this column, this is one of the weaker classes at wide receiver I have studied since first creating the WR1 analytical model in 2019. In fact, I do not see myself drafting many of these players for my Dynasty teams after the top 7. The sweet spot for value is between 2.02 and 2.06 in the second round of rookie drafts. That is when the value from the top 7 on this list falls.
15. Jaylin Noel, Iowa State, WR1 Model Score: 6.0
Drafted Round 3, Overall Pick 74 – Denver Broncos
Probability of achieving at least 1 top 24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season: 28.4%
Noel is the first of two Iowa State Cyclones in our top 10. Yards per route run is a very important contributor to the WR1 model, and Noel ranks just 15th amongst wide receiver prospects in this class. His best-season weighted dominator (share of the team’s receiving yards and touchdowns) was also only 18th among the prospects. Noel did post a strong relative athletic score at 9.58, ranking eighth in the class.
Noel has far more fans in the film community than he does in analytics. Noel scored a 6.24 film grade. Zierlein states, “He’s primarily a slot receiver but has enough size and speed to kick outside in a pinch. His routes can be a little unfocused, but that’s correctable with coaching. What can’t be coached is his consistent play speed. He can accelerate and separate from turns and stems and tends to uncover on cross-country routes. The catch focus can be inconsistent, but he is willing to mix it up in the middle of the field and is a natural after the ball is in his hands.”
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12. Elic Ayomanor, Stanford, WR1 Model Score 34.0
Drafted Round 4, Overall Pick 136 – Tennessee Titans
Probability of achieving at least 1 top 24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season: 28.4%
We have a big tier jump here from the eighth spot in the model to seventh. We are starting to get into the players that can be true impact players on your Dynasty roster. Ayomanor is an excellent athlete, as evidenced by his 9.56 Relative Athletic Score. This Relative Athletic Score is similar to the WR1 model but only pertains to the athletic traits of the prospect. It combines their size and results in all the NFL Combine events, such as the 40-yard dash, vertical jump, 20-yard shuttle, and bench press. Age-adjusted production is also an important contributor. Ayomanor is one of only four wide receivers in the class to have a breakout (20% of the team’s share of receiving yards/touchdowns) in their freshman year.
Ayomanor scored a 6.19 in Zierlein’s film grade. Zierlein states, “Wide receiver with pro size and traits who is still in the early stages of his development. Ayomanor lacks suddenness and burst from his break points, leading to heavier contested-catch totals, but he does a nice job with stemming coverage out of corner routes and slants. He has good build-up speed to work vertically and the strength to handle possession targets from the slot, but his ball-tracking and catch technique need a major upgrade.”
11. Jalen Royals, Utah State, WR1 Model Score: 22.0
Drafted Round 4, Overall Pick 133 – Kansas City Chiefs
Probability of achieving at least 1 top 24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season: 28.4%
It is hard for a non-power four conference player to break into the top 10 of the WR1 model. The level of competition is a sizable contributing factor to their overall score. After all, these players do not have the best track record when the NFL drafts them high (I see you, Corey Davis and Skyy Moore). Royals is the first of two non-power four players in this year’s WR1 top ten. There were zero in 2024 and 2023.
This shows not only the strength of these two players’ profiles but also the weakness of the class as a whole. Royals was one of only four wide receivers in this class to garner a best-season weighted dominator above 40%. He was also one of only nine prospects to surpass the 3.00 threshold in yards per route run.
Royals ranked ninth in Lance Zierlein’s film grading with a score of 6.27. Zierlein states, “Skilled and instinctive, Royals might lack the desired explosiveness, but he makes up for it with his body control and feel for the game. He has good size and is keenly aware of defenders around him, which allows him to adjust routes and improve his chances on contested catches. He’s a decent route-runner but doesn’t have the short-area foot quickness and burst to open wide windows for his quarterback. He’s excellent as a zone-beater and uses plus body control and play strength to bring in catches in traffic.”
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9. Dont’e Thornton, Tennessee, WR1 Model Score: 16.0
Drafted Round 4, Overall Pick 108 – Las Vegas Raiders
Probability of achieving at least 1 top 24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season: 28.4%
Thornton was on very few people’s radars before the NFL Draft. He was never that big of a part of the Tennessee offense. He really stood out to me when we had our DFF League of Record startup draft, where we picked rookies before they were actually drafted. One metric in particular, he popped in a big way. Thornton posted a very impressive 3.72 yards per route run. In this sense, he parallels Puka Nacua, who also didn’t post great surface stats in college but had excellent yards per route run. This showed that when he was used, he was very efficient. For whatever reason, these coaches did not give them the volume they earned.
Thornton does have a bit of Marques Valdes-Scantling to his game, so he could be frustrating to own in fantasy. He projects as a low-volume but potentially explosive week-to-week player. In bestball leagues, he would be much more palatable. There, you can withstand a dud week and a blowup the next week.
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MASSIVE TIER JUMP
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6. Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State, WR1 Model Score: 51.0
Drafted Round 1, Overall Pick 19 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Probability of achieving at least 1 top 24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season 54.2%
One thing you do not need to worry about with Egbuka is his finding a starting job. The question with Egbuka will be how much he produces. He is a rare slot who brings a lot of value outside of the passing game with his elite blocking in the run game. He brings a lot of non-fantasy value to an NFL team. This was reflected in his draft capital.
But I am not here to tell you which wide receivers bring the most value to an NFL team. I am here to tell you the wide receivers who will score the most fantasy points. That is where I have some questions about Egbuka. Egbuka did not rank in the top five in any of our key predictive metrics. He was solid across the board but not elite in any of them. And that is how I would best describe him as a player. Solid. He has a decent floor but a limited ceiling. While he was not elite in any single category. He also lacks any significant red flags. It would have been nice to see him declare when first eligible, but that isn’t the non-starter it used to be. Egbuka was able to eclipse the 3.0 threshold in yards per route run.
Egbuka scored a 6.37 in Lance Zierlein’s NFL.com film grade. Zierlein states, “Fluid athlete with good size and quality ball skills who works primarily from the slot. Egbuka runs his routes with tempo and pace. He does a nice job of influencing coverage when needed. He lacks the explosiveness to race past the coverage and is a little tight in his hips getting in and out of breaks. Egbuka’s baseball background shows up with his laser-focused ball-tracking and ability to make sudden adjustments to bring throws in for a safe landing. He’s not elusive or sudden after the catch but is competitive and can squeeze out additional yardage.”
Egbuka scored a 6.37 in Lance Zierlein’s NFL.com film grade. Zierlein states, “Fluid athlete with good size and quality ball skills who works primarily from the slot. Egbuka runs his routes with tempo and pace. He does a nice job of influencing coverage when needed. He lacks the explosiveness to race past the coverage and is a little tight in his hips getting in and out of breaks. Egbuka’s baseball background shows up with his laser-focused ball-tracking and ability to make sudden adjustments to bring throws in for a safe landing. He’s not elusive or sudden after the catch but is competitive and can squeeze out additional yardage.”
5. Jayden Higgins, Iowa State, WR1 Model Score: 63.0
Drafted Round 2, Overall Pick 34 – Houston Texans
Probability of achieving at least 1 top 24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season: 63.5%
Jayden Higgins’ 63.0 is comfortably ahead of Emeka Egbuka’s 51. We are officially in the range of receivers who profile as strong starters for your Dynasty team. Higgins posted an exceptional 9.63 Relative Athletic Score, which is fourth among the players highlighted in the top 15 of the WR1 model.
Higgins possesses a rare combination of size, speed, and explosiveness. His 6’4” frame and vice-grip hands with a 1.54 10-yard split are a recipe for getting open quickly. Higgins was very strong in all the advanced metric inputs we used for the WR1 model. His 17.2 college career fantasy points per game were only behind Travis Hunter and Tet McMillan. Higgins was the only receiver in this class to score a PFF receiving grade above 90 this past season. He eclipsed the all-important 3.00 yards per route run threshold, showing he was efficient with his touches.
Higgins scored a 6.33 in Lance Zierlein’s film grading system. Zierlein states, “Big inside/outside wideout with modest athletic attributes but outstanding ball skills that make him a projectable NFL prospect. Higgins needs a more limited route tree but can operate on all three levels in the right scheme. He’s smooth but physical in his routes and does a nice job of creating pockets of separation with force and strength. He has mismatch qualities from the slot with body control and a catch radius that make him a menace on jump balls downfield. He won’t outrun cornerbacks and is nothing special after the catch, but his size, ball skills, and competitiveness create a profile of production as a future contributor in three-wide sets.”
4. Luther Burden, Missouri, WR1 Model Score: 66.0
Drafted Round 2, Overall Pick 39 – Chicago Bears
Probability of achieving at least 1 top 24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season: 70.8%
Burden is a bit of an enigma. After his scintillating sophomore season, he was widely thought of as a blue-chip future NFL superstar. High-end age-adjusted production is highly predictive of future NFL success.
Burden bucked the traditional ascension in production as you get older in your college career. Instead, his production fell from an astounding 93.2 yards per game as a sophomore to 56.3 yards per game as a junior. That is certainly a red flag, but it is also why we use best season vs last season for the WR1 model. Best season has proven to be more predictive since it highlights a player’s ceiling, and there can be a myriad of factors as to why production could drop, from injury to quarterback play to coaching.
However, that sophomore season was Special with a capital S. Burden was the only prospect in the class to post yards per route run above 3.25 as a sophomore. His 3.21 receiving yards per team pass attempt were fourth overall. He also posted top 10 marks in weighted college dominator (36.3%) and college career fantasy points per game (15.6). Burden is one of six early declare wide receivers symbolizing a vote of confidence from the NFL that he is getting high draft capital and is ready to play at the next level.
His landing spot is tantalizing in Detroit. Ben Johnson is one of the most creative play-callers in the NFL. He propelled Amon Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs to fantasy superstardom. Burden has traits similar to both players and could be used in similar roles that Gibbs and St. Brown portrayed in Detroit with Johnson.
Burden had a 6.43 film grade from Lance Zierlein. Only Travis Hunter graded higher. Zierlein stated, “Former five-star recruit who offers five-star athleticism and playmaking ability. Burden is a natural on the field with above-average speed and exciting ball skills to win at a high rate. He takes snaps off and short-circuits routes if he’s not the primary option, but he can separate and succeed on all three levels when it’s his time. Missouri exploited Burden’s yards-after-catch talent with a barrage of short throws, but NFL teams are much more likely to diversify his usage, activating his complete skill set and big-play potential. The production against top teams was uneven at times, but so was Missouri’s quarterback play. Burden checks several priority boxes that typically foreshadow an impressive NFL career.”
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