Dynasty Trendz – Week 6

Finding trends in underlying data has always been critical to staying one step ahead of your Dynasty league. Many key metrics stabilize quicker than fantasy points and predict future fantasy breakouts. This series analyzes that data for you and details which players you need to be ahead of the curve on before their Dynasty value appreciates or depreciates.

Dynasty values used for this article are from Keep Trade Cut which is a Dynasty community-driven value tool.

Statistics used are from NFL PRO premium next-gen stats.

To evaluate which quarterbacks are performing well and poorly in real life vs. fantasy we can properly see which QBs may have jobs in jeopardy or are thriving. This is a useful metric to evaluate which QBs are good long-term investments in Dynasty.

To do this we use Next Gen Stats EPA/DB: Expected Points Added per Dropback.

The average amount of expected points added on dropbacks by a QB

A few highlights of this chart in terms of Dynasty valuation are below.

Jayden Daniels is a certified stud. He is a Konami rushing QB fantasy cheat code who is also rated first overall in terms of real-life team valuation for EPA/DB. The fantasy community already values him as such though so there is no inefficiency here to buy him. 

Jayden Daniels is priced as the QB1 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.

Baker Mayfield has gone from a good comeback story last year to one of the best fantasy draft values this year. Mayfield is currently the QB2 overall in fantasy for the year. This is very impressive for a QB who doesn’t have significant added rushing value. He is still under 30 years old and has established himself as a top starter in the NFL.

Baker Mayfield is priced as the QB15 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a buy rating.

The Anthony Richardson/Joe Flacco predicament is interesting. 

Shane Steichen stated last week Richardson would be the starter when “healthy”. As I stated last week this gave him an out to sit him at least another week.

Flacco is currently 7th in EPA/DP and clearly outplaying Richardson. I don’t know how Steichen gets away with sitting Richardson another week. At this point, Flacco’s value will tank. But whenever he gets a chance, he balls out. He is one of my favorite very cheap backup QB stashes but wait until Richardson starts again first to acquire him for nothing.

A final interesting highlight front he chart above is Kirk Cousins. The Falcons drafted Michael Penix eighth overall this year. If Cousins faltered the door would be open sooner vs. later. That is not happening with Cousins ranking ninth overall in EPA/DB. Penix owners could be looking at a Jordan Love-type timetable for Penix. That is tough to be that patient.

Kirk Cousins is priced as the QB25 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a buy rating.

Michael Penix is priced as the QB21 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a sell rating.

We have been pleading with you to add Mason Rudolph and sell Will Levis for your Dynasty rosters in this column. If you haven’t yet it may be too late. He is still available in 83% of the Sleeper Dynasty leagues. If he is available run do not walk to acquire him.

Once he inevitably becomes the starter his KTC value should rise to around QB35. That is the point where you sell him for a 3rd round rookie pick.

Mason Rudolph is priced as the QB56 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a strong buy rating.

Will Levis is priced as the QB30 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a strong sell rating.

Aaron Rodgers is old and hasn’t been good for years. I would move off of him while his name value can still get you a usable asset.

Aaron Rodgers is priced as the QB33 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a sell rating.

Deshaun Watson is the absolute definition of the sunk cost fallacy. “The phenomenon whereby a person is reluctant to abandon a strategy or course of action because they have invested heavily in it, even when it is clear that abandonment would be more beneficial.”  Jameis Winston is certainly better but I just don’t see him getting an opportunity. There is more than enough evidence to move off Watson already but he is still starting. Both are already appropriately priced by the Dynasty community.

Deshaun Watson is priced as the QB34 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.

Jameis Winston is priced as the QB40 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.

Don’t panic about Matthew Stafford. He will be fine once he gets Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back.

Indianapolis Colts Running Backs

Week 6

Week 5

This is a temporary situation as Jonathan Taylor rehabs from his ankle injury. Taylor has a chance to come back next week. 

Goodson has been significantly more explosive than the plodding Trey Sermon. Sermon is now averaging a paltry 2.5 yards per carry on the season  Sermon got his chance to prove himself with significant volume and failed. Goodson should be the backup RB in Indy moving forward. If he is still available in your Dynasty league pick him up.

Trey Sermon is priced as the RB62 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.

Tyler Goodson is priced as the RB89 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a buy rating.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Running Backs

Season

A new contestant entered the ring in the Tampa Bay backfield in week 6, Sean Tucker. We have had Rachaad White as a sell since week 1 with Bucky Irving being a buy. Irving’s value has skyrocketed, and he still seems like he is the RB1 in this backfield.

Tucker had by far the best game of his career Sunday. He exploded for 136 rushing yards and a touchdown on 14 attempts (9.7 yards per carry). Per Next Gen Stats, he racked up 47 rush yards over expected, 6 rushes over 10+ yards, and a scintillating rush EPA per attempt of +.73.

Rachaad White has 4 runs of 10+ yards on 51 attempts

Sean Tucker has 6 runs of 10+ yards on 16 attempts

Tucker was widely considered a top NFL running back prospect during the course of his college career. Unfortunately, a heart condition caused him to go undrafted. He amassed an amazing 92.2 PFF rush grade to go with 3203 rush yards, 27 touchdowns, and an impressive 139 missed tackles forced.

Rachaad White has been one of the least efficient rushers of the football for the last 2 years. Coming into this year I had him as a hard fade and Bucky Irving as a buy due to this fact. White seems destined for a 3rd down-passing back-only role.

Irving has been very impressive and remains the favorite for early rushing downs. But Tucker just proved he can be a more than capable backup to Irving.

Bucky Irving is priced as the RB18 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.

Rachaad White is priced as the RB39 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a sell rating.

Sean Tucker is priced as the RB78 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a buy rating.

New York Giants Running Backs

Season

Devin Singletary missed his second straight week for the Giants. Tyrone Tracy was solid but not near as impressive as the prior game only averaging 2.9 yards per rush attempt this week. 

It would be hard to fathom Tracy not having an expanded role after his two-game performance. I see it shaking out with Singletary as the starter and early down rusher. Tracy, I see more as the third down back while also spelling Singletary for a series here and there.

Tracy did have impressive advanced metrics ranking top 5 in this draft class in explosive run %, yards after contact, and missed tackles forced per attempt.

Devin Singletary is priced as the RB45 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a buy rating.

Tyrone Tracy is priced as the RB36 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.

I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your Dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting

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