Welcome back to Factory AccuRankings Analysis, the series where I will give you guys a closer look into our member-exclusive DFF consensus rankings.
The full rankings are available on our website at dynastyfootballfactory.com. By purchasing our annual membership, you’ll get full access to our entire staff of creators and editors in the DFF discord on top of all the member-exclusive articles and, of course, the centerpiece of this series, the DFF AccuRankings. We also have highly comprehensive Devy rankings, which I can attest are extremely hard to come by online.
In this edition, I’ll analyze a few reactions from opening weekend and determine where there is cause for concern, excitement, caution, and more.
SMOKE: Justin Fields is bad at football
I have no idea where people are coming from on Justin Fields. I have seen tweet after tweet, poll after poll, and analyst after analyst bashing Fields’ Week 1 performance, and to be frank, yes, I was disappointed, too. After such an explosive season last year in fantasy, our expectations were sky high, evident in his round 1 startup ADP this offseason and pricey, elite QB1 price tag in trade negotiations.
So tell me this: why are we entirely abandoning ship after a lackluster first game? A first game with new weapons against a stellar defense, that actually, when you really look at it… wasn’t that bad of a first game.
His 216 passing yards are almost 70 over his average from last season. His one passing TD keeps him on the same pace as last season. His 59 rushing yards were ~17 less than his average last year, but his yards per carry were only down 0.5 yards. If you watch the tape, he seems much calmer and more accurate passing from the pocket; the problem seems to be more that his receivers are either running their routes poorly or running poorly designed route concepts. He was still very effective as a rusher, and it’s still evident that he’s the best athlete on the field 99% of the time. Honestly, factoring in rushing touchdown variance and a couple of bad turnovers, this was an above-average Fields performance by last year’s standards.
But that’s the key. Our standards have changed, and we are expecting more. I’m not saying this type of performance is okay to continue. My point is simply that his being moved down eight spots in KeepTradeCut‘s rankings is a substantial overcorrection. Obviously, this is not gospel, but it reflects the consensus’s mood, which has turned its back on Justin Fields. I think Fields is primed to bounce back against a below-average Tampa defense, but if he doesn’t, then we might actually have a problem.
Ranking Prediction: Hard fall
Ben’s Status: Don’t fade yet
FIRE: Puka Nacua is good at football
There’s something here, for sure. Some notes on Puka’s performance this weekend:
Puka’s 15 targets on Sunday have him tied with Tyreek Hill for the league lead in targets and are the most earned by a rookie in their debut ever.
Puka is the 4th player ever to clear ten receptions and 100 yards in their debut.
Puka’s 39.5% target share is 2nd in the league (behind fellow rookie Zay Flowers) and is 4th all-time among rookies in their first game.
Puka is 4th in receiving yards this season so far.
From a film perspective, Puka popped as well. His strong hands are his biggest strength and were evident on a number of plays in the Seattle matchup. He’s an ultra-smooth route runner and is excellent at creating separation, both on the line of scrimmage and down the field. He’s a good hand fighter, and while he isn’t the most superb athlete, he’s strong and well-built and has enough agility to create space. Maybe most importantly, though, he’s clearly a smart player who picked up a featured role in a complex system in no time and has earned the trust of Matthew Stafford, who played at an extremely high level in that game.
Obviously, there is risk Puka is a flash in the pan. The lack of Cooper Kupp and the general mediocrity of Seattle in this game are just two of many valid reasons to be concerned about Puka. But I know what I saw, and I’m not hesitating to pull the trigger on Puka. In fact, I’m just wishing I had done it earlier.
Ranking Prediction: Hard spike
Ben’s Status: Buy Buy Buy
SMOKE: Austin Ekeler is still a top 3 option at RB in 2023
Austin Ekeler is someone I faded all offseason long, and I regret to inform you that despite a strong performance in Week 1, I’m still out on Ekeler long-term in dynasty. Ekeler definitely had an excellent game: averaging over 7 yards per carry on 16 totes is remarkable efficiency, finding the end zone is always awesome, and 4/5 receiving for 47 yards is excellent PPR involvement as well.
So why the heck am I still out on this guy? Well, I think this week is about as good as it gets for Austin Ekeler. You know who else had 16 carries against Miami? Joshua Kelley. His 5.7 yards per carry is hardly an inefficient line in its own right, and he even found the end zone as well. But what really scares me about Joshua Kelley? The 48% snap share. Not 48% snap share in garbage time, racking up carries with a big lead. This was the most competitive game of the entire week, and Austin Ekeler was off the field for 51% of it.
If you’re like me and think Austin Ekeler lacks a certain oomph in the rushing game to be a true #1, this game simply confirmed who you think Austin Ekeler is. He’s a change-of-pace scat back with an excellent receiving profile. However, his ceiling remains contingent on a ridiculous amount of touchdowns being scored by him specifically, which I don’t find to be sustainable. As Justin Herbert settles into Kellen Moore’s offense and develops rapport with Quentin Johnston, I would expect Ekeler’s passing game usage to dip. With his snap share dropping to around a 50/50 split and Joshua Kelley being a potential goal-line vulture this year, I don’t see Ekeler garnering enough volume or high-value touches to be the consistent RB1 he’s been these past two seasons.
To wrap it up, this is about what I think Ekeler’s absolute ceiling in this new Chargers offense looks like, and I feel he’s valued at that ceiling at the moment. Capitalize on this strong Week 1 and sell him for his top 12 value that he’s currently holding, as I truly don’t see this run lasting as long as most think.
Ranking Prediction: No change
Ben’s Status: Still fading
FIRE: Jordan Love could finish top 12 this season
I have been one of the few DFFers defending Jordan Love this offseason, and boy, were my priors confirmed in Green Bay’s opener. Let’s cut the fluff on this one, and just let me explain to you why I think Jordan Love has a potentially elite upside.
1 – He elevates his weapons. One of the primary anti-Love arguments this offseason has been the poor or too-young supporting cast surrounding him, which does feature two sophomores and a rookie at receiver, as well as a rookie tight end. Granted, everything Love did this week was against a poor defense, but we can’t hold that against him- he doesn’t decide who he’s lining up against. Love excelled at finding his playmakers in space, and it paid off in a big way with some big splash plays to Aaron Jones, Jayden Reed, and Luke Musgrave. He was excellent executing in the red zone, with a couple of extremely well-thrown touchdowns to Romeo Doubs. He did just about all you can ask for with what he had, and it turned into a performance to remember for Love and all of the Packers’ offense.
2 – He has elite tools. Love has repeatedly put his arm talent on display, even in the limited moments we had seen him before this season. He’s improved so much as a processor, and that was evident on plays like his first touchdown to Doubs, where he clearly moves through his progressions while staying strong in a collapsing pocket and has the quick release to find Doubs once he got open. He’s mobile, as well, albeit not much of a real rushing threat- but he has the escapability to make plays out of structure.
I’m very much buying in on Love, situation and history be damned. I’m still sending out offers despite the gradual increase in hype after this game, and I could see a world where he cranks out a top-12 finish and launches himself into the first three rounds of startup ADP for next season. I’m betting on talent here; Love’s got it.
Ranking Prediction: Modest spike
Ben’s Status: Still buying
SMOKE: The New York Giants suck again
Yyyyyyikes. That was- something, for sure. I’ll cut right to the chase here: the correct reaction to the Giants’ performance against Dallas is simply to have no reaction. We learned absolutely nothing new about the New York Giants. This is the same team we saw last year. A brilliant offensive mind, one talented back, a mediocre but admittedly slightly above league average quarterback, surrounded by a mediocre offensive line and possibly the worst pass-catching core in the league.
Again, literally nothing new. You should feel just as bad starting Giants receivers but also just as confident starting Saquon in Week 2. Daniel Jones is still a viable, albeit ugly, play at QB2. Darren Waller is still a viable, albeit slightly ugly, play at TE if you have no better option.
Yes, it was a bad game. No, you should not freak out and abandon all hope for Giants players in 2022. I’m calling smoke on the Giants being frauds, and see themselves regressing to some degree to where they were last season.
Ranking Prediction: Collective drop
Ben’s Status: Fading slightly
FIRE: The Atlanta Falcons still won’t/can’t pass the football
I guess we’re doing this again. 18 passing attempts is either exactly or adjacent to the worst outcome I could conceive for Atlanta in their opening matchup. Their offseason additions have been great, but the real key for them making the jump from a feisty wild card exit to a serious, legitimate playoff team has always been the growth of Desmond Ridder to at least a Ryan Tannehill-esque game manager. For Atlanta to stand a chance against other good teams, they have to pass the ball effectively.
It’s hard to do that if you don’t throw it, though. And unfortunately, it seems like that’s the game plan for Atlanta once again. While Ridder did finish with an impressive completion percentage, this does not reflect the pitifully dull playcalling that limited the Falcons to such an unexplosive passing attack on Sunday. I still think Ridder has a chance to be a competent NFL passer, but what I don’t have faith in is Arthur Smith running route concepts that will be conducive to Ridder’s growth as a potential high volume (or even just a league average volume) passer.
And, of course, this will keep a lid on the ceiling of Drake London and Kyle Pitts until further notice. London is borderline unplayable until Arthur Smith proves we can trust their playcalling balance to improve, especially with the depth at the receiver position of players who actually get targets. Given the rough landscape at his position, Pitts is likely still a must-start for most and should continue to have splash plays like he did in Week 1, which will provide some fantasy viability. But, overall, I’m not feeling good about what I saw from Atlanta on Sunday and would proceed with extreme caution surrounding the Falcons passing offense.
Rankings Prediction: Collective drop
Ben’s Status: Buying the dip
Thanks for reading! I hope you were able to learn something, or at the very least found this piece entertaining. You can find me @bwinknfl on Twitter/X and Tik Tok, where you can see my day-to-day content as well as short videos. Subscribe to the DFF YouTube channel and check out some other recent articles to dominate your leagues! #DFFArmy
