Stonk Down
Running Back
Rhamondre Stevenson
Week 12 Stats – Rush: 9/46/0 | Receiving: 0/0/0
Snap Share: 33%
The Rhamondre hype has lost its luster after the return of Damien Harris but you should still be encouraged for the rookie’s future. Stevenson has carved out a clear role in the offense and has split the early-down roles while Bolden rotates in for passing downs. This has created a fairly even three-way split that leaves Stevenson as a touchdown-dependent running back that shares early downs and is limited in the passing game. I’m sure that sounds depressing in a vacuum, but keep in mind that we were concerned about him even suiting up at the beginning of the season. Now he’s cutting into an already serviceable and talented back’s playing time while he’s having a career year. We still haven’t seen his ceiling.
Value Estimation: An Early Second
Buy or Sell the Dip: Buy
Wide Receiver
Elijah Moore
Week 12 Stats: Receiving: 4/46/0
Snap Share: 88%
Target Share: 8 Targets – 33%
Elijah Moore saw his production dip in Zach Wilson’s return but his playing time and targets are still there as he continues to establish himself as the WR1 in Corey Davis’s absence. The rookie is seeing the surge during the second half of the season that we’ve come to expect from highly-touted prospects and the only thing that will get in his way will be quarterback play. Moore has the skill and athleticism to consistently beat defenses no matter where you get him the ball and the Jets look like a team on the upswing that just needs to build their offensive line to get the most out of all of their rookies. Stop letting the Jets logo hold you back from buying real talent.
Value Estimation: First-Rounder
Buy or Sell the Dip: Buy
Rashod Bateman
Week 12 Stats – Receiving – 4/31/0
Snap Share: 44%
Target Share: 4 Targets – 12%
If your biggest concern with Bateman was his landing place you’re probably feeling some validation at the Ravens’ disappointing offense but please hold all “I told you so’s” for the end. Bateman is good. I actually think Bateman is better than many thought and has some of the most impressive coverage success rates clocking in 77.9% and 85.5% against Man and Zone respectively according to Reception Perception. The issue is the pedestrian offense that is utilizing entirely too many screens to Marquise Brown and not enough creative passes downfield. I’m willing to trust HC John Harbaugh to either correct OC Greg Roman or replace him with someone who will get the most out of all the talent on this offense. Next season should open up more efficient opportunities as the team improves their offensive line and their top two running backs return from injury. Buy this nice dip.
Value Estimation: First-Rounder
Buy or Sell the Dip: Big Buy
DeVonta Smith
Week 12 Stats – Receiving – 2/22/0
Snap Share: 91%
Target Share: 4 Targets – 13%
This bad game was less about DeVonta Smith and more about Jalen Hurts playing poorly and bringing down the entire offense. DeVonta Smith is performing well as the team’s pure X-Receiver and will go as far as Hurtts will allow him. There will be more six-catch games for 60+ yards than dismal games like this and there should be no worries. I doubt this is a real “dip” in value but it can’t hurt to try and pry him away from a contender wanting someone a little more solid for the playoff push.
Value Estimation: Early First
Buy or Sell the Dip: Buy.
Tight End
Kyle Pitts
Week 12 Stats: Receiving: 2/26/0
Snap Share: 78%
Target Share: 6 Targets – 21%
Kyle Pitts hasn’t performed as we expected after Calvin Ridley’s departure and it looks like I put him ‘To the Moon’ a little too early as I feared. Atlanta’s star rookie is still being peppered with targets but teams appear to be keying and game-planning for him. Keep in mind that Cordarrelle Patterson shares the middle area of the field with him and is vulturing targets and touches from everybody. The Falcons, specifically Matt Ryan, aren’t very good right now and Pitts will struggle along with them. Keep in mind that he is still a rookie and is performing far and above average everywhere but the red zone. It looks like we can finally gauge realistic value for Pitts going forward and his price has fallen back down to Earth.
Value Estimation: Two Firsts+
Buy or Sell the Dip: I’m finally willing to buy in a rebuild.
HODL (Hold on for Dear Life)
Running Back
Javonte Williams
Week 12 Stats – Rush: 14/54/0 | Receiving: 3/57/0
Snap Share: 58%
Javonte Williams continues to be hyped despite the very real possibility that Vic Fangio will still be around next season and will more than likely utilize multiple backs beyond this season. This isn’t saying that it’s concrete or that Williams isn’t talented but you should be cautious before you trade rookies performing well in clear-cut starting roles like Elijah Mitchell or Michael Carter. Williams has the size and some of the best tackle-breaking ability in the NFL but isn’t in the best situation while he shares a backfield with a still very talented Melvin Gordon. I wouldn’t overpay for him if you want him and I wouldn’t sell him for cheap due to the potential. He’s a firm hold till the offseason.
Tight End
Week 12 Stats: Receiving: 4/40/1
Snap Share: 76%
Target Share: 4 Targets – 10%
I’ve bought up Pat Freiermuth everywhere I’ve could and I don’t understand how other managers have allowed me to. Freiermuth is performing above and beyond expectations on a team that is still brimming with talent despite the limitations of Ben Roethlisberger. I doubt the Steelers find their franchise QB in next year’s draft but I’d bet my spare change that any free agent would love to be on a team with a solid defense, a bell-cow back, and a stable of youthful pass-catchers. The rookie tight end has been an efficient red zone threat with even mediocre QB play and his future is bright. Don’t get rid of a rookie performing like a TE1 in one of the toughest position groups. Even if you have one of the Big Three.
Stonk Up
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence
Week 12 Stats – Passing: 23/42 Attempts | 228 Yards | 1/1 TD/INT | Rush: 5/39 |
Sacks Taken: 1
The Jaguars are not very good and Trevor Lawrence is regressing along with them. Most of
his production is coming from garbage time or the modest rushing boost he’s getting but nothing that looks concrete enough to build on. His best weapons have been Dan Arnold (now on IR) and Marvin Jones (old) and isn’t getting the help we expected from Laviska Shenault. Lawrence still has plenty of arm talent and potential but it isn’t worth as much as many are willing to pay in his current situation.
Value Estimation: Probably only a First and maybe Matt Ryan. I wouldn’t overpay, but I’d definitely let others if I own him.
Buy or Sell High: Sell
Running Back
Jermar Jefferson
Week 12 Stats – Rush: Nope | Receiving: Zilch
Snap Share: 10%
Jermar Jefferson is seeing a bump solely because of the D’Andre Swift injury and OC Anthony Lynn’s philosophy of utilizing multiple backs. Managers should use this game as a Litmos Test of the rookie’s future. The most likely ceiling for the rookie is him working his way into the 1B role held by Jamaal Williams next season. That certainly holds fantasy value, but I’m not in a hurry to make a move for a player who has only touched the ball nine times unless I want to secure a handcuff as a D’Andre Swift owner. Yes, his stock is technically up but we’re just monitoring and holding for the future.
Value Estimation: A Third-Rounder
Buy or Sell High: Hold unless someone decides to overpay out of desperation
Tight End
Brevin Jordan
Week 12 Stats: Receiving: 3/23/1
Snap Share: 60%
Target Share: 3 Targets – 12%
Brevin Jordan has officially overtaken Jordan Atkins as the Texans starter and has crept into a touchdown-dependent desperation play ROS but is a nice stash I’d rather have now. It’s no secret that Houston is riddled with question marks surrounding their future at QB but I’ll continue to preach that TE is a desert wasteland and it never hurts to stash a young guy at the end of your roster to see what happens. Jordan could likely be a safety blanket for whatever rookie steps in or he could be another tiny flash in the pan. The important thing is that he’s still young and fairly cheap.
Value Estimation: A late Second or Third. An easy throw-in piece for a larger package.
Buy or Sell the Dip: Buy
To the Moon
Mac Jones
Week 12 Stats – Passing: 23/32 Attempts | 310 Yards | 2/0 TD/INT | Rush: 2/11/0 |
Sacks Taken: 2
I’m not saying Mac Jones is the next Patrick Mahomes or even Justin Herbert. But he’s now a solid prospect with the potential to have a very safe floor for a long time. Think Kirk Cousins or Derek Carr. Neither of them makes you feel giddy but you don’t want to undersell a sneaky QB1 or high-end QB2. Mac Jones may not be a Lamar Jackson-type fantasy darling but he is a quality “real” quarterback that you shouldn’t worry about losing his job anytime soon. The Patriots are back in the playoff hunt and much of that success is due to the rookie’s success.
Running Back
Elijah Mitchell
Week 12 Stats – Rush: 27/133/1 | Receiving: 5/35/0
Snap Share: 70%
I will continue to defend Elijah Mitchell as my rookie RB2 right her in the “To the Moon “section until others realize that he’s very good and the 49ers don’t want a crazy RB rotation and welcome the consistency. That’s why they drafted Trey Sermon and it’s why Raheem Mostert was the bell-cow for the few games he was healthy. Many are scared about draft capital but Kyle Shanahan cares much less about this than many analysts and people fail to realize he had the second-highest rookie SPARQ score of 95.2% in one of the oddest draft classes due to covid. Don’t do anything drastic like trade a rookie in a fantastic situation for another you liked better predraft in a much worse situation.
Final Rookie Dynasty Rankings
Quarterback
- Justin Fields
- Mac Jones
- Trevor Lawrence
- Trey Lance
- Zach Wilson
- Davis Mills
Running Back
- Najee Harris
- Elijah Mitchell
- Michael Carter
- Javonte Williams
- Rhamondre Stevenson
- Chuba Hubbard
- Khalil Herbert
- Kenny Gainwell
- Travis Etienne
- Trey Sermon
Wide Receiver
- Ja’Marr Chase
- DeVonta Smith
- Jaylen Waddle
- Rashod Bateman
- Elijah Moore
- Rondale Moore
- Terrace Marshall
- Kadarius Toney
- Josh Palmer
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
Tight End
- Kyle Pitts
- Pat Freiermuth
- Tommy Tremble
- Brevin Jordan
- Hunter Long
- Kylen Granson
- Jacob Harris
- Noah Gray
Think my Dynasty Rankings are insane? Let me know and find more content on Twitter @SportsJag.
