Still Eating W’s

There is a heightened level of emotional attachment that fans and players put into divisional rivalries. The familiarity of foe creates a palatable tension in an already brutal sport. You can feel the electricity in the air every time the Buccaneers enter the Superdome to face the Saints and vice versa. This Sunday was no different.

Devin White delivered a horse-collar tackle universally agreed upon as a dirty hit and an illegal maneuver. The results were devastating, as Jameis Winston’s upper body bent over backward, leaving his knees to buckle underneath him. Pro Football Network on Twitter posted the play shortly after the game. Warning: It may be graphic to some. White was flagged with a penalty, and Winston was carted to the locker room.

Seeing Jameis Winston dancing on crutches after the Saints’ 36-27 victory over the Buccaneers is the type of positivity we should all aspire for. Winston will likely have to undergo season-ending surgery, as reported by Ian Rapoport on Twitter, for an ACL tear suffered in Week 8. He is also facing structural damage to the MCL tendon.

In-Season Impact

The Saints are standing with an impressive yet surprising, 5-2 record in the always competitive NFC South. Their outstanding defense has carried them throughout the season. The Saints’ defensive unit is allowing a mere 18.3 PPG on average, ranked fourth in 2021. After forcing three turnovers from Tom Brady, there is no question that the Saints can compete regardless of Winston’s departure.

The offensive weapons for the Saints have not been fantasy-relevant this season, save for Alvin Kamara. The Saints are averaging a lowly 305.9 combined yards from scrimmage this season. 

According to BRoto Fantasy Football coaching logs, head coach Sean Payton and the Saints lead the NFL in rush attempts per game at 54.7%. That percentage is likely to increase moving forward in attempts to slow games down to a crawl and allow their defense to win games.

The Replacements

Saints’ third-string quarterback Trevor Siemian stepped into the field-general role, completing 16/29 passes for 159 yards and a touchdown. Siemian did well to control the ball, despite his inaccuracies, finishing the game with zero turnovers. Siemian’s role as the starter may be a one-off if Taysom Hill is medically cleared to play this week. Siemian has little value outside of deep superflex leagues and will only be a supplemental starter for one more game at most.

Hill would be the unquestioned substitute as the Saints starting quarterback in any given scenario. However, Hill has not played in three weeks and is still in concussion protocol after taking a brutal helmet-to-helmet hit against the Washington Football Team in Week 5. There are reports that Taysom Hill is expected to clear concussion protocol by Week 9 for the Saints divisional matchup against the Falcons, but league offices have confirmed nothing.

The Saints’ multi-tooled quarterback should see an increase in perceived value in both season-long and dynasty leagues. If Hill is available on your waiver wires in redraft formats, he is worth a stash for his rushing upside and propensity for goal-line touchdowns.

Hill’s value in dynasty leagues carries more than a few interesting nuances. There is a clear opportunity to sell at peak market perception before Hill ever plays a snap as the starter. If you are in a rebuilding phase or are unlikely to compete for this season, I would advise fielding offers for Hill.

Contending teams will likely have to pay a premium in superflex leagues if they want to acquire Hill for the final push. Winston ranked within the top 20 quarterbacks in fantasy points scored, meaning most teams started him as a low-end QB2 in superflex formats. Hill can certainly mimic Winston’s fantasy production, if not increase it. That slight chance of a raised ceiling is exactly why managers will attempt to up the bidding price.

As mentioned before, I expect the Saints to up their lead-leaguing run percentages without a traditional pocket-passer under center. Hill is the most obvious candidate for increased work in that area.

The Usual Suspects

Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram re-unite in New Orleans after a transaction between the Saints and the Texans. Our very own Joe Memmolo Jr. covered the fantasy fallout of the Mark Ingram trade to the Saints. He mentioned Ingram’s minimal impact on Kamara’s overall value. I agree with Joe. In Ingram’s first game back in black and gold, he carried the ball six times for 27 yards, compared to Kamara’s 19 RSH/61 YDS/1 TD. Both running backs may see an increase in carries but could see their goal line production vultured by Hill.

The receivers on the Saints’ offense have long disappeared from fantasy relevance. Marquez Callaway has shown some promise as a young deep threat and red zone target but has mainly been unreliable in your lineups. Hill does not have the field-stretching arm strength of Winston, causing an even steeper decrease in Callaway’s value in dynasty and redraft formats.

Tre’Quan Smith is finally healthy and in the lineup. He managed to catch Winston’s only touchdown pass in Week 8. Smith has not shown any consistency in his NFL career. I don’t believe Smith is a viable hold in dynasty leagues and should be ignored entirely in redraft.

Deonte Harris does hold some intrigue for me, with Hill as the starting quarterback. Hill is a quick-hitting, intermediate passer. Harris possesses incredible open-field agility and vision. Harris could see some increased usage in the short-yard passing game in his future.

The hope is that Michael Thomas will return at some point this season. Those hopes are slowly being snuffed out with every vague report surrounding Thomas’ injury. I have a sinking feeling that we have already seen MT’s last snaps as a member of the Saints.

Winston’s Future with the Franchise

At only 27 years of age, Winston is still in his athletic prime and will undoubtedly be looking to return to the NFL at full force. His return to the Saints’ franchise is unfortunately in question.

Winston’s contract is only solidified this season, with guaranteed outs for the organization in 2022 and 2023. Winston is receiving the base salary of just one million dollars, pennies in comparison to league standards. The Saints would face a dead cap hit of just 1.5 million in the offseason should they cut Winston before the next offseason begins. Winston will not be recovered before that window closes. It’s plausible he will be dismissed from the roster, an ugly and unfortunate truth of business in the NFL.

Taysom Hill is also on a discounted contract, signed on the roster through 2025. The nature of his contract allows the Saints to void all of Hill’s guaranteed money at any point, essentially only ensuring him a roster spot for this season. As it stands right now, it appears that Hill may be the future of the franchise.

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff. 

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