In this series, I am diving into each NFL team and putting forth my predictions on what I think they will do in the 2021 season. I think having a set of reasonable or expected projections can help us during our drafts. They can help differentiate between closely ranked players, not only by comparing floor but also by comparing potential upside. I will be showing a set of realistic or expected projections and telling you if I think anyone is being under or overvalued in best ball/redraft drafts right now. These can also be used in a dynasty mindset, especially if you are a contending team. But, even if you are in a rebuild these projections could outline a young, cheap player who may get more work than a lot of people think. Let’s dig in.
First, I’ll just touch on my process. I start by looking at the team and individual player trends over the last 2-3 seasons. I get stats like target shares, rush shares, yards per carry, yards per reception, completion percentage, and yards per attempt. As well as team-focused stuff like pass-to-rush play ratio (this is just team pass attempts divided by team rush attempts), pass-to-rush touchdown ratio, and total plays. I then use these past trends and try to predict what will be in store for 2021. Here are my projections for the Cincinnati Bengals’ fantasy-relevant players.
Keep in mind, these stats are for the new 17 game season and not the old 16 game season. The Bengals have typically been a pass-heavy team over the last two years, even in neutral game scripts when they are not trailing. The Bengals had a reduced pass rate in 2020 compared to 2019, but I think this is due to Burrow being hurt for half of the season. This caused the Bengals to lean on the run more often because they did not trust their inexperienced quarterback. In 2020 we saw the Bengals with a 1.41 pass to rush play ratio and in 2019 it was 1.6. I am giving them a ratio of 1.7 in 2021. I think this number will be high because when the Bengals were led by an aging Andy Dalton in 2019 and they still managed a 1.6 pass ratio. Burrow is one of the best young quarterbacks in the league and the Bengals just drafted him a stud wide receiver at fifth overall in the draft. I think they plan to unleash Burrow and allow him to take full advantage of his great wide receiver trio. Let’s see what this increase in pass attempts does for the players.
Joe Burrow looked awesome in 2020 when he was on the field. As a rookie, he was very impressive and I cannot wait to see how he grows in 2021. The team is giving him every chance to succeed and I think he will take advantage of these resources to have a great season and career. I have him projected for a very solid 4,700 passing yards and 35 total touchdowns. This results in him averaging 23.4 fantasy points per game, this leaves him easily in the top eight QBs for 2021. With his ADP being about QB12 I am loving him in drafts and find myself stacking him with a Bengals wide receiver very often.
Joe Mixon is always a polarizing player this time of the year. There are questions like will he get a full workload and will he stay healthy. I can not guarantee Mixon will stay healthy, but I do think he has just as good of a shot as any other player to stay healthy or get injured, so I throw this out the window. Now for the workload. In 2019 we saw Mixon achieve a 72% rush share and in 2020 when Gio Bernard was out Mixon averaged a 13% target share. Now in 2021 with Bernard out of town and very poor RB depth in Cincinnati I can see Mixon combining these two assets of his game. In 2021 I have him projected for a 65% share of the carries and a 10% share of the targets. These numbers are what help him reach a mark of almost 17 points per game. Joe Mixon is a locked-in RB1, with his ADP being right around RB12 I will gladly be drafting him at or even a few spots above cost.
The wide receiver group is deadly, to say the least. It is a three-headed monster complete with a top-five draft pick in Ja’Marr Chase, a sophomore who exploded onto the scene as a rookie in Tee Higgins, and a consistent vet that has a safe floor in Tyler Boyd. I think the Burrow to Chase connection will have a huge impact on Chase’s rookie year production. When the pocket collapses and Burrow is running for his life he will be scanning the field for his favorite target, Ja’Marr Chase to help him out. I currently have the group projected for a very similar target share; Chase with a 22% share, Higgins at 21%, and Boyd with 20%. It’s impossible to know how these shares will work out, but last year we saw the Bengals trio of Higgins, Boyd, and AJ Green with shares of 18.6%, 19%, and 18%. This distribution makes me feel we could see something similarly close in 2021. I feel that these receivers are all currently values at their ADPs, so I would recommend picking one to target in each draft and grabbing him. Depending on how that particular draft shakes out.
I was a bit disappointed in how Drew Sample’s projections shook out because I do like grabbing him late in my dynasty drafts. However, with these three dominant receivers and Mixon being so talented catching out of the backfield there just is not much leftover for Sample to go around. Sample will be in the avoid category for me in redraft, a very late grab if you need a TE in best ball, and still a good target late in dynasty drafts.
To conclude, everyone in this offense will be on at least one of my teams. I have already completed a couple of best ball drafts where I have stacked Burrow with each of Chase, Higgins, and Boyd. This is an offense that will score a lot of points and put up a lot of yards. That is all I have for you here today. I hope you enjoyed it. Be sure to look out for the next installment when I take a look at how the Bengals will perform with a healthy Joe Burrow and a shiny new weapon in Ja’Marr Chase.
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I really appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions, you can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content, along with rankings for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
