In this series, I am diving into each NFL team and putting forth my predictions on what I think they will do in the 2021 season. I think having a set of reasonable or expected projections can help us during our drafts. They can help differentiate between closely ranked players, not only by comparing floor but also by comparing potential upside. I will be showing a set of realistic or expected projections and telling you if I think anyone is being under or overvalued in best ball/redraft drafts right now. These can also be used in a dynasty mindset, especially if you are a contending team. But, even if you are in a rebuild these projections could outline a young, cheap player who may get more work than a lot of people think. Let’s dig in.
First, I’ll just touch on my process. I start by looking at the team and individual player trends over the last 2-3 seasons. I get stats like target shares, rush shares, yards per carry, yards per reception, completion percentage, and yards per attempt. As well as team-focused stuff like pass to rush play ratio (this is just team pass attempts divided by team rush attempts), pass to rush touchdown ratio and total plays. I then use these past trends and try to predict what will be in store for 2021. Here are my projections for the Buffalo Bills’ fantasy-relevant players.
Keep in mind, these stats are for the new 17 game season and not the old 16 game season. In 2020 we saw the Bills passing volume absolutely explode with the addition of Stefon Diggs. The Bills had a pass-to-rush play ratio of 1.45, which grew from the 1.10 ratio they had in 2019. Their pass to rush TD ratio also grew from 1.62 in 2019 to a whopping 2.50 in 2020. The league average for TD ratio is about 1.8, so 2.5 is astronomical. For 2021 I am giving the Bills a pass to rush play ratio of 1.4 and a pass to rush TD ratio of 2.11. The play ratio is just a little lower than 2020 but still a little higher than the league average of 1.35, so this feels very reasonable. I dropped the TD ratio down to 2.11, but to be fair this is still well over the league average of 1.8. I feel good about giving the Bills both of these ratios. Now let’s dig into the players themselves.
Another thing we saw skyrocket in 2020 was Josh Allen’s completion percentage. He went from a lowly 59% completion rate in 2019 to an absurd 69% in 2020. We need to bring this back down to Earth too so I am giving him a 66% rate for 2021, just over the league average of 65%. Along with the other parts of my process (which I will keep under wraps), he ends up with a fantastic line of 4600 pass yards, 440 rush yards, and 43 total touchdowns. This would give him 27.2 fantasy points per game and firmly plant him within the top 5 QBs for the 2021 season. Josh Allen’s combination of floor and upside is only matched by Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. Draft Allen at ADP and feel great about it.
The Buffalo RB group is interesting. I gave Zack Moss more rushing work than Devin Singletary and gave Singletary more receiving work than Moss. Which matches the trend set when both were active in 2020. Unfortunately, this creates two RBs that I do not want. At first, I found it surprising that Singletary came out with more points than Moss because I thought Moss’s TD upside would trump the receiving upside. However, Singletary uses that receiving upside to achieve four receiving touchdowns. Both of these running backs ended up with seven total touchdowns, but Singletary had 30 more receptions which give him the point advantage. These RBs may not seem desirable, but at their respective ADPs, I could see myself owning some Singletary. He is currently being drafted after Zach Moss, so I would take advantage of this by fading Moss and scooping Singletary late.
Stefon Diggs is just what we wanted him to be in my projections. A monster that is poised for a 1,400 yard, 10 TD season, also averaging a massive 18.8 points per game. Diggs belongs in the top five for redraft WRs this year and should be drafted as such. Cole Beasley looks to be a solid flex play due to the departure of John Brown. I did scale up Gabriel Davis’s role in the offense for that reason too, but Beasley still looks to have a high target share and average over 13 points per game. Even Gabe Davis should be usable this season, averaging almost 11 points per game in my projections.
To conclude, everyone in this offense will be on at least one of my teams except for Zack Moss and Dawson Knox. This is an offense that will score a lot of points and put up a lot of yards. Guys like Beasley, Davis, and Singletary seem like they should be great cheaper options to stack with Josh Allen if you go that route. That is all I have for you here today. I hope you enjoyed it. Be sure to look out for the next installment when I take a look at how the Bengals will perform with a healthy Joe Burrow and a shiny new weapon in Ja’Marr Chase.
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I really appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content, along with rankings for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
