Is Rome Odunze Undervalued?
All offseason, the drumbeat around second-year wideout Luther Burden has been deafening. Ben Johnson even said in late May that he was “buying Luther Burden stock right now.” When a head coach and playcaller says that, the fantasy community and NFL odds live should probably listen.
And we did.
Burden is currently going as the WR24 in FantasyPros’ Real-Time ADP for seasonal leagues. In Dynasty, he’s been steamed up to WR18 on KeepTradeCut. We’re even more aggressive here at DFF, where Burden sits as our WR17 in consensus rankings.
Point being, there are major expectations for Burden heading into Year 2.
Sadly, that momentum could be slowed because of a groin injury. Adam Schefter reported that Burden will be out for the entire preseason, although Chicago believes he’ll be ready for the season opener.
Enter Rome Odunze, the No. 9 overall pick in 2024. He and Burden win in various ways and occupy different positions in Johnson’s offense, but someone has to emerge as the top wideout. Now, that could be Odunze.
People seem to forget how good Odunze was last year before a foot injury derailed his season. In Weeks 1-8, he averaged 15.5 fantasy points per game, good for WR11 during that span. For the season, he ranked eighth in deep targets (23), 13th in red zone target share (25.0%) and 18th in target share (23.7%). Also, since entering the league, Odunze ranks seventh in total end-zone targets.
Burden’s injury now opens a door for Odunze to put some space between himself and his younger teammate. If he can take advantage and earn Caleb Williams’ trust, Odunze might end up being the better value of the two Chicago receivers, and you can routinely get him in Round 6 in Redraft and Dynasty.
The Time is Now for Josh Downs
Alec Pierce recently got the bag, signing a four-year, $114-million contract in March. But since then, he’s essentially been M.I.A while he recovers from offseason ankle surgery.
It doesn’t sound like we should expect him on the field when the season starts, either. General manager Chris Ballard recently said there is no firm timeline on the receiver’s return.
If Pierce isn’t out there to start the year, Josh Downs has a gargantuan opportunity in front of him. Just take a look at the rest of the receivers on the depth chart:
The Colts aren’t a serious organization if that’s what they are rolling out for pass-catchers. It feels like serious malpractice to not sign anyone noteworthy when they knew Pierce was going to be recovering.
Their mistake is Downs’ gain, though. He’s going to go from a slot-only player with a snap share hovering in the 60-65% range to an every-down receiver. That’s going to raise his fantasy floor.
In a down 2025 season following his 2024 mini-breakout, Downs still averaged 0.098 first downs per route run, good for 25th among all receivers. He was also heavily targeted in the red zone — his 15 targets ranked 13th at the position — which is surprising, given his 5’9”, 171-pound stature.
Right now, Downs is still going behind Pierce in seasonal drafts (WR39 to Pierce’s WR35), but I expect him to leapfrog his teammate the longer Pierce remains sidelined. You can currently get Downs near the Round 8-9 turn, which is not a bad price for a guy who could end up being first or second in targets for the Colts this season.
Jonathon Brooks to the Moon
We’ve watched Jonathon Brooks’ ADP slowly creep closer and closer to Chuba Hubbard’s all offseason. Early drafters were having aggressive visions of the former Longhorn taking off in Year 3.
I get it; he was the first running back selected in the 2024 NFL Draft, and there’s a lot to like in his profile.
Still, we’re talking about a player who had not one, but two ACL tears in the same knee and only career 12 touches as a professional. Not only that, but Brooks has just one season with more than 200 rushing yards since high school.
There’s not a lot to go off of when evaluating him. Brooks is a complete enigma, and fantasy managers always gravitate towards the mystery box for some reason. It could be a boat. Or maybe it’s another ACL rehab.
Either way, the price of the brick is going up.
Hubbard is currently dealing with a hamstring injury that the team is calling “week-to-week.” This injury clears the runway for Brooks to potentially earn a larger role on game days. We’ve already seen Hubbard lose his grip on the starting job because of an injury. Last year, Rico Dowdle went nuclear in two games Hubbard missed with an ankle issue.
If Brooks comes out the gates hot, we might see a situation where he eventually becomes the lead back with Hubbard settling into the 1B role.
At least that is what drafters are hoping for.
Rotowire’s Theo Gremminger recently tweeted out that Brooks went at the 5.03 in a high-stakes NFC draft. I understand being aggressive and trying to stay ahead of the curve with buzzy players, but the early fifth round seems far too rich for someone with Brooks’ injury history and limited — almost nonexistent — résumé.
If that’s where Brooks is going to start going in drafts, I’m happy to let others chase the upside. Give me the boring vets like David Montgomery or D’Andre Swift all day long in that range.
Wolf Trelles-Heard is a fantasy football contributor for Dynasty Football Factory. Find him on X at @DynastyFFWolf
