The WR1 Analytical Model Rankings are one of our member favorites each year at Dynasty Football Factory. Months of research and years of dialing in and enhancing the model to accurately predict future wide receiver fantasy value bring us to today.
These WR1 model rankings will be your ultimate guide to predicting which prospects will produce the most fantasy points in their NFL career.
For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a proprietary formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future fantasy production for incoming rookie wide receivers. There are so many advanced metrics out there nowadays; we here at DFF know it can be difficult to navigate which ones matter and how much. The WR1 model takes all that hard work and boils it down to one easy-to-understand number. The model scores rookies on 13 predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating score. The goal is to provide an easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend hundreds of hours dissecting different metrics. Based on how the prospect scores in the model, I provide their % probability of achieving at least one top 24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season based on past prospects who have received a similar score range.
The WR1 model consistently outperforms NFL draft capital in predicting the future fantasy success of incoming prospects. For a full breakdown of the model’s past performance, click this link. You can also find last year’s WR1 model article here, where we were one of the very few publications to have Malik Nabers as the top wide receiver overall instead of Marvin Harrison Jr.
Today, we highlight the wide receivers ranked 10 through 6. Before we elaborate on the top 10, here are the wide receivers who just missed, ranked 15 to 11. Of note, we are not including Travis Hunter in the rankings due to the uncertainty around his receiving volume in the NFL. He would be our number one overall prospect if he were a full-time receiver.
15. Tez Johnson, Oregon, WR1 Model Score 2.0
Mock Draft Consensus Estimate Per NFL Mock Draft Database (15)
Probability of achieving at least 1 top 24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season: 17.3%
14. Isaiah Bond, Texas, WR1 Model Score: 4.0
Mock Draft Consensus Estimate Per NFL Mock Draft Database (13)
Probability of achieving at least 1 top 24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season: 17.3%
13. Ricky White, UNLV, WR1 Model Score: 6.0
Mock Draft Consensus Estimate Per NFL Mock Draft Database (23)
Probability of achieving at least 1 top 24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season: 17.3%
12. Jack Bech, TCU, WR1 Model Score: 9.0
Mock Draft Consensus Estimate Per NFL Mock Draft Database (9)
Probability of achieving at least 1 top 24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season: 17.3%
11. Andrew Armstrong, Arkansas, WR1 Model Score: 12.0
Mock Draft Consensus Estimate Per NFL Mock Draft Database (25)
Probability of achieving at least 1 top 24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season: 28.4%
10. Kyle Williams, Washington State, WR1 Model Score: 15.0
Mock Draft Consensus Estimate Per NFL Mock Draft Database (12)
Williams has been gaining support in draft circles the closer we get to the NFL Draft. He is now considered to be squarely in the Day 2 conversation. Williams ranked sixth in the class in college career fantasy points per game with a stellar 15.8 mark. This consistent production throughout his career is particularly appealing to NFL scouts. He is one of only seven wide receivers to eclipse a 3.00 receiving yards per team pass attempt mark. Williams lacks elite athleticism. His 7.67 Relative Athletic Score ranks just 23rd in the class.
In our business of analyst prospect prognostication, there are two sides: film and analytics. The WR1 model merges those two sides to give a more holistic view of the prospect. This model was a pioneer in merging the two sides of prospect evaluation using NFL.com film legend Lance Zierlein’s film grading system.
Zierlein gave Williams a 6.20 film grade which ranked 12th. Zierlein states, Fifth-year senior with alignment versatility and home run potential. Williams will never be tabbed as “sure-handed” but he can separate deep and create big plays, which could make the catch issues easier to swallow. He eliminates pursuit angles as a catch-and-run artist and gets respectful cushions, allowing for easy comeback throws. His lack of route-running fundamentals limit his tree, but that should be correctable with work. Williams’ subpar hands lower his floor, but teams looking to add a playmaker could have him queued up as a future WR3.”
9. Jaylin Noel, Iowa State, WR1 Model Score: 17.0
Mock Draft Consensus Estimate Per NFL Mock Draft Database (8)
Probability of achieving at least 1 top 24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season: 28.4%
Noel is the first of two Iowa State Cyclones in our top 10. Yards per route run is a very important contributor to the WR1 model, and Noel ranks just 15th amongst wide receiver prospects in this class. His best-season weighted dominator (share of the team’s receiving yards and touchdowns) was also only 18th among the prospects. Noel did post a strong relative athletic score at 9.58, ranking eighth in the class.
Noel has far more fans in the film community than he does in analytics. Noel scored a 6.24 film grade. Zierlein states, “He’s primarily a slot receiver but has enough size and speed to kick outside in a pinch. His routes can be a little unfocused, but that’s correctable with coaching. What can’t be coached is his consistent play speed. He can accelerate and separate from turns and stems and tends to uncover on cross-country routes. The catch focus can be inconsistent, but he is willing to mix it up in the middle of the field and is a natural after the ball is in his hands.”
8. Jalen Royals, Utah State, WR1 Model Score: 22.0
Mock Draft Consensus Estimate Per NFL Mock Draft Database (10)
Probability of achieving at least 1 top 24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season: 28.4%
It is hard for a non-power four conference player to break into the top 10 of the WR1 model. The level of competition is a sizable contributing factor to their overall score. After all, these players do not have the best track record when the NFL drafts them high (I see you, Corey Davis and Skyy Moore). Royals is the first of two non-power four players in this year’s WR1 top ten. There were zero in 2024 and 2023.
This shows not only the strength of these two players’ profiles but also the weakness of the class as a whole. Royals was one of only four wide receivers in this class to garner a best-season weighted dominator above 40%. He was also one of only nine prospects to surpass the 3.00 threshold in yards per route run.
Royals ranked ninth in Lance Zierlein’s film grading with a score of 6.27. Zierlein states, “Skilled and instinctive, Royals might lack the desired explosiveness, but he makes up for it with his body control and feel for the game. He has good size and is keenly aware of defenders around him, which allows him to adjust routes and improve his chances on contested catches. He’s a decent route-runner but doesn’t have the short-area foot quickness and burst to open wide windows for his quarterback. He’s excellent as a zone-beater and uses plus body control and play strength to bring in catches in traffic.”
7. Elic Ayomanor, Stanford, WR1 Model Score 34.0
Mock Draft Consensus Estimate Per NFL Mock Draft Database (7)
Probability of achieving at least 1 top 24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season: 41.7%
We have a big tier jump here from the eighth spot in the model to seven. We are starting to get into the players that can be true impact players on your Dynasty roster. Ayomanor is an excellent athlete, as evidenced by his 9.56 Relative Athletic Score. This Relative Athletic Score is similar to the WR1 model but only pertains to the athletic traits of the prospect. It combines their size and results in all the NFL Combine events, such as the 40-yard dash, vertical jump, 20-yard shuttle, and bench press. Age-adjusted production is also an important contributor. Ayomanor is one of only four wide receivers in the class to have a breakout (20% of the team’s share of receiving yards/touchdowns) in their freshman year.
Ayomanor scored a 6.19 in Zierlein’s film grade. Zierlein states, “Wide receiver with pro size and traits who is still in the early stages of his development. Ayomanor lacks suddenness and burst from his break points, leading to heavier contested-catch totals, but he does a nice job with stemming coverage out of corner routes and slants. He has good build-up speed to work vertically and the strength to handle possession targets from the slot, but his ball-tracking and catch technique need a major upgrade.”
6. Matthew Golden, Texas, WR1 Model Score: 42.0
Mock Draft Consensus Estimate Per NFL Mock Draft Database (2)
Probability of achieving at least 1 top 24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season: 54.2%
Golden has been in the discussion for the number one overall receiver in this class. This again speaks to the relative weakness of this class. However, there is past precedent for Golden’s archetype going higher than their presumed NFL production. Golden posted the fastest 40-yard dash time of any receiver at the NFL Combine with a 4.29 mark. NFL teams covet speed not just for production purposes but for the ancillary impact on the rest of the offense. In analyst circles, we call this being a “sacrificial X”. Think Henry Ruggs, Jameson Williams, John Ross, Christian Watson, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The list of NFL Combine speed demons drafted high to not produce in the NFL is long. While the NFL values this archetype, it is not the archetype you want for your Dynasty roster.
Golden works all three levels of the field with similar consistency and productivity. His route-running needs refinement, but he does a decent job of altering tempo and separating at break points. Golden has the ability to play all three receiver spots. He also has the agility and body control to turn near-misses into highlight catches. Focus drops still pepper his play, but he’s a willing participant in traffic and took command of contested catches with better physicality and catch strength in 2024.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. All of my articles have one goal in common. That goal is to provide you, our member, with actionable advice that can improve your Dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy or Blue Sky @forcefantasy.bsky.social. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting
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