The DFF Army got together again after the NFL Scouting Combine for its second analyst-only rookie mock draft of the 2023 off-season. Here we randomly selected spots and then ran the draft in linear order; the settings are Superflex and PPR. Hopefully, this can help give you an earlier sense of the players you should be considering at the top of your draft and the gems you will want to target later. Check out every first-round selection below and each writer’s reasoning behind their pick. With more rounds to come later!
1.01 – Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Matt Ward – @PsychWardFF
Bijan Robinson is undeniably the dead-to-rights RB1 overall on the dynasty market. The Doak Walker Award winner has accumulated three consecutive years of top-end production in college, smashing through analytic models and Big 12 defenses as a bonafide superstar before he ever steps foot on an NFL field. Only one rookie in this draft class is considered a top 12 asset in startup drafts and I am not hesitant to lock him down with the rookie 1.01.
1.02 – Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
Doug Harrelson – @DougHarrelson
By the time we get to rookie drafts, I may be taking one of these quarterbacks but at this stage, I want to take the prospect that I like the best regardless of position. In previous years rookie QBs were given at least three seasons to develop but lately, teams are moving off of young QBs much faster than before if they aren’t sold. The insulation provided by the quarterback position even in Superflex leagues isn’t what it used to be. Gibbs would be the clear RB1 in almost every rookie class and will be a fantastic addition to any dynasty roster. If you are a couple of years away, I don’t mind just taking whichever QB you like best.
1.03 – Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Ben Winkler – @bwinknfl
I wasn’t expecting at the 1.03 to have my choice of the top 3 QBs, but I’m not complaining either. I’ve been on the Anthony Richardson QB1 train since long before the combine, so here’s my official DFF-published flag plant on him as my guy this year. The Josh Allen comparisons have been well-vetted already in the fantasy community, but that’s not to say they aren’t warranted. And while many consider this a risky fantasy pick, I think Richardson enters the league at worst as a top 5 rushing quarterback, which should give him a higher fantasy floor than the other 3 more pocket-oriented quarterbacks in the class. So, I view Richardson as a high-floor, high-ceiling pick- and I’ll gladly scoop that up the future Raiders all-time great (wink wink) at the 1.03.
1.04 – Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Chris Museezer – @force_fantasy
It happens every year at about this time. Analysts twist themselves into a pretzel over-analyzing prospects and grapple onto some negative until they start fading a blue chip prospect. Surprise, Bryce Young is short. Well if you didn’t know this already you haven’t followed college football much at all.
Bryce Young has been the QB1 in this class since he was a freshman. He won the Heisman as a Sophomore and followed that up with a stellar junior campaign. Young threw 80 touchdowns to only 12 interceptions and did so without the typical elite Alabama wide receivers (since Ohio St signed them all). Young has the top QB grade from Next Gen Stats and many of the most respected mock draft analysts. Young is simply a good football player. Don’t make this harder than it has to be.
1.05 – C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
Chris Miles – @ChrisMiles1017
After a surprising turn of events, I get my QB1 of the class here. Stroud and Young are not far apart for me at my top spot but I do give C.J. the slight edge. Yes, Stroud had better weapons, we all know this. But even so, he still had 1.2 more best-season yards per attempt, a 5% higher best-season completion rate, a 2.1% higher TD rate, and a 17 points higher career passer rating. Stroud outperforms in every category and it isn’t close in some. I do not knock Young for his size but when you have two prospects that hit every threshold and one has prototypical size and the other doesn’t I will take the size there. I would be happy to get any of these QBs at 1.05, I just happened to have my favorite fall in my lap.
1.06 – Jaxson Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Drew Pettiford – @puma_drew
With the big three QBs and top two running backs off the board, Jaxson Smith-Njigba was an easy choice for me here at the 1.06. For quite a while this off-season, it seemed like JSN was falling out of the “top receiver” conversation. To an extent, I understood it. We didn’t see much of anything from the Ohio St receiver in the 2022 season, dealing with a nagging injury. Then the combine happened, and we were all reminded how good JSN can be. I can’t think of one NFL offense that he doesn’t eventually excel in, and that speaks volumes about his versatility. Combine numbers aside, Jaxson Smith- Njigba looks every part of a dynasty stud for years to come.
1.07 – Zach Charbonnet, RB, UCLA
Jagger May – @FantasyBluechip
Maybe a little early with this pick here, but it looks as though this draft class only has three or four RBs that profile as high-volume guys, so I wanted to get my hands on one. After Bijan Robinson, Charbonnet is the next best bet for a bell-cow role from this draft class. Charbonnet checked in at 214 pounds which is solid, but many were hoping for 220+. Despite his size and length, he is athletic enough to make guys miss in the open field. His Relative Athletic Score of 9.42 from the NFL Scouting Combine makes it more likely he earns that coveted Day 2 NFL draft capital.
1.08 – Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Paul Patterson – @FantasyFreezer
Addison is my WR2 so it was an easy choice here at the 1.08. I don’t care much about WR size or athleticism as long as they aren’t super tiny or super slow. Addison did fine at the combine with his only true blemish being the sub-25.0 BMI. But, we have been seeing more and more low BMI WRs come in and succeed in recent years, like Devonta Smith, Garrett Wilson, George Pickens, and Jahan Dotson, so this does not worry me. Addison has an elite production profile and will get the draft capital to match. He is my safest WR after JSN.
1.09 – Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Doc – @DocFFFN
A pretty fortuitous opportunity here to draft the WR2 of the 2023 draft class at 1.09. Your author loves the post-combine hype part of the dynasty offseason, as “analysts” and “content producers” overreact to predictable NFL Combine outcomes for clicks and attention. Quentin Johnston dominated the Big 12 Conference and the much stronger competition he faced during Bowl Games.
But Johnston was listed as 6’4” and measured in at 6’3”… who cares? He’s bigger and more athletic than the other top prospects at the position, and he already runs a decent-sized route tree. And for you analytics nerds out there:
This is a selection that has both a low chance for busting and also a moderate chance for landing a bonafide long-term dynasty stud. You cannot say the same for some of these QBs or any of the RBs after Bijan.
1.10 – Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
Billy Beaman – @WillieBeamanDFF
Will Levis didn’t break the combine like Anthony Richardson but I still can’t let him fall any further. I’m not necessarily a believer but we can no longer fade the quarterback position in Superflex leagues. This pick will hold as long as Levis goes in the first round of the NFL draft.
1.11 – Josh Downs, WR, UNC
Joe Memmolo – @DFF_JoeMem
At 1.11 I am seeing my top tier of WR, RB, and QB all depleted. So at the top of my second tier, I am taking my next best WR which is Josh Downs. I am not a sizeist, I care about production and draft capital. Downs has a pristine production profile and has been talked about as a surefire day-two pick who could even sneak into the late day-one territory. NFL WRs are getting smaller and Downs is part of the next wave of future studs.
1.12 – Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
MG – @AlwaysBBuilding
The quintessential TE in this new era of TE prospects. As with most TEs, there are holes that only NFL-level training can refine. He’s not an exception, although, in the right system, he could make a splash earlier than some of his contemporaries. A no-brainer pick in a TEP league at the 1.12. Value boon.
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