Welcome to part two of my weekly publication! As always, part one of this publication is my weekly picks against the spread, with a deep dive into three picks that I feel will provide a nice payout to bettors. In part two, I’ll be looking at three player props that I think have a strong chance of paying out. This article will run the gamut and will include bets such as passing yard totals, the first player to score, and even total tackles for those who love Defense.
Betting lines were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. Deposit $20 into DraftKings today and receive not only a FREE DFF Membership but also $10 in extra DraftKings credit! It’s a no brainer!
With that, let’s get started!
A Brief Recap of Week One
We opened up the season 2-1 after crushing the over on Jerome Baker’s total tackles and Josh Allen’s passing yard totals. Jerome Baker had nine total tackles against a run-heavy Baltimore offense that feasted on an inept Miami team. Meanwhile, Josh Allen passed for 254 yards as he led his team in a comeback effort against the Jets.
Unfortunately, our last bet of Geoff Swaim scoring did not end on such a positive note. While I’d love to use the Nick Foles injury as an excuse, the fact of the matter is Swaim was out-targeted by James O’Shaughnessy 5-4 and was targeted only once in the red zone. It seems as though O’Shaughnessy may be the tight end to target moving forward.
Regardless, 2-1 is certainly a win by any standard! Let’s get on to this week’s picks!
Cole Beasley o3.5 Receptions (-148)
The odds are certainly not great on this bet, but this seems as sure of a lock as any. Last week I wrote that Cole Beasley and Josh Allen had developed chemistry early in the offseason. Well, after one week it looks like that chemistry has translated seamlessly to the regular season.
Cole Beasley came away with nine targets in the Bills comeback win over the Jets. He accounted for nearly 25% of Josh Allen’s target share and posted a 5-40 line. If we had bet this bet last week, he would have cashed it in midway through the second quarter. He may not gain many yards, but racking up targets and short completions is Beasley’s MO.
Also, the Bills’ Week Two opponent is none other than the New York Giants. The Giants were shredded by Dak Prescott last week to the tune of 25 completions for 405 yards and four touchdowns. Randall Cobb, the Cole Beasley replacement in Dallas, went 4-69 on only five targets. With the target share that Beasley commands, it isn’t outside the realm of possibilities to imagine Beasley catching six or seven passes against this Giants secondary.
Now, there is a question regarding Beasley’s availability for Sunday. Right now, it sounds as if he’ll play. Once his status if confirmed, I’m pounding the over on this bet and am confident I’ll be reaping the rewards early.
Kirk Cousins u22.5 Completions (-132)
While it’s my opinion that last week’s Vikings team was an aberration (only ten passing attempts?!), I do believe we got a serious glimpse into what the Vikings’ offense will look like for the remainder of the season. I wrote a brief blurb on what Gary Kubiak would bring to this offense in my NFC Divisional Betting Odds article but long story short, Kubiak has a history of restoring prestige to offenses through his zone-blocking scheme and commitment to the run.
That commitment to the run was evident, as the Vikings ran the ball on 79% of their offensive plays! Yes, a lot of this was due to game flow and the early lead they built against the Falcons. But that number cannot be ignored.
Green Bay’s defense was spectacular against the Bears last week holding them to 3.1 yards per carry and three total points. Their secondary also held Trubisky to 228 yards passing and a paltry 62.1 QBR. I expect the Packers to continue this level of play and force the Vikings to throw way more than ten total passes. Last week 13 quarterbacks who played a majority of the teams’ snaps completed less than 22 passes. Given the Vikings’ commitment to the run, coupled with a Green Bay defense that can keep quarterbacks in check, betting the under Cousins’ completions is the way to go.
Michael Gallup o58.5 Receiving Yards (-106)
Before the season, my colleague Sam Wallace wrote a great article detailing how Michael Gallup can thrive in this Dallas offense. Well, Gallup did that and more in Week One! He led the team in receptions and yards, catching all seven of his targets for 158 yards. He was stellar both before and after the catch en route to a 22.6 yard per target average. Simply put, Gallup was a stud.
Admittedly he feasted on a weak Giants’ secondary. However, his Week Two opponent is not much better. The Redskins are fresh off a demoralizing loss in which they gave up a 20-7 halftime lead to the Eagles. Carson Wentz connected multiple times with deep-threat DeSean Jackson who torched the Washington secondary for 154 yards on eight receptions. Jackson ended the day with a 51-yard touchdown reception, a 53-yard touchdown reception, and plenty of more work underneath.
If Gallup can get exploit the secondary the same way Jackson did, he is in line for a huge day. Luckily, Gallup spent the off-season developing his connection with Dak Prescott to become a more consistent deep-threat. From all accounts, their hard work appears to have paid off. I’ll be happy to take the over on Gallup’s receiving yards and expect one or two splash plays to easily push me over this total.
For more from Stephen, check out his archive and follow him @DFF_Biscuits.
