Dynasty Analysis
Welcome to Episode 86 of the @DynastyTradesHQ Podcast! “#TradeAlerts, DJ […]
Football isn’t just played from one side of the ball. If you want a new and exciting form of fantasy football, incorporating Individual Defensive Players (IDP) into your roster may just be for you. But this can be an overwhelming new process. Have no fear, members, the Factory is here to tell you where to start in your IDP startups.
Welcome to the IDP Nation Podcast. We are your hosts Dan Cook and Darrell Winstead. We’ve got you covered from your LB1 to your taxi squad.
In this two-part article, we’re going to take a look first at three tight ends that I will be targeting at their current ADP and then in part two, examining three tight ends I’m fading at their ADP. As a quick note, Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, and George Kittle will not be featured in either article. Those are the consensus top three tight ends for most experts and I want to discuss players that have received a bit less attention. Also, only three teams can grab one of those top-tier tight ends, so everyone else will need to decide on one of these later players. With all that said, let’s jump right into it.ADP is taken from Fantasy Football Calculator’s Half-PPR ADP.
Evan Engram (NYG)Evan Engram is a mid-round target at the tight end position for 2019 fantasy drafts. He is currently being drafted as the 61st player off the board as the TE5. While I also have Engram ranked as my TE5, I believe there is still value at his overall draft cost. In points per game, Engram finished as the TE4 in 2017 and then the TE7 in 2018, so a TE5 price seems appropriate. However, he is guaranteed to play a whole season in 2019 without the presence of target hog Odell Beckham Jr. In 2017, Engram received 115 targets when Beckham missed a majority of the season and was the unquestioned number one receiving option during that period. Then in 2018, Engram was having a quiet season until Beckham was out injured for the final four games. In those four contests, Engram topped 75 receiving yards in each game and totaled 22 receptions on 31 targets.
In the lead up to the 2019 season, Redraft Football Factory will be dissecting each division in the NFL to outline two ‘unbustable’ players, two busts, two breakout players, two bounce-back candidates, and two sleepers. Today, we will examine the AFC West teams: the Chiefs, Chargers, Raiders, and Broncos. Where is the best place to mine fantasy gold? Who can you rely on and who should you avoid? Read on, fellow members, and find out!
If you’re anything like me, there are fewer things in this world more satisfying than watching a wide receiver dismantle a defensive back with a nasty, precise route on his way to scoring a touchdown. You know exactly what I’m talking about, don’t you? You can picture it in your head – the receiver aggressively comes off the line and forces the cornerback into a frantic back peddle. Next, the receiver breaks hard towards the middle of the field…the defender’s hips turn…and suddenly you can feel the six points coming from your couch. The receiver turns upfield and is immediately so open, you wonder if the defender was ever there. The quarterback hits him in stride as he crosses the goal line while the defender is left behind. Simply beautiful.Now, maybe there are a few things in this world that are more satisfying than what I just described, but you have to appreciate the technical effort that goes into making that play happen in only a matter of seconds. One of the best young route runners in the league, and arguably the most exciting rookie wide receiver last year, is Calvin Ridley, and he is quickly making a name for himself in the league.Coming out of college, his Draft Profile Analysis started with the following statements from NFL Analyst Lance Zierlein, “Ridley has game-changing talent complete with blazing speed and rare route-running ability for a college prospect. He ran the full route tree at Alabama, has experience working in a pro-style attack and is a plug-and-play starter on day one.” Prior to him even stepping onto the field for a professional game, he was already known for his incredible route running abilities.Before I dive into the numbers and analysis, if you haven’t yet seen some of Calvin Ridley’s proficient route running, go do that and then come back and finish reading this. Better yet, check out some of my recent tweets and you’re sure to see some Ridley routes in there. I want you to be able to picture the greatness in your mind as I convince you that he is one of the most dominant young wideouts in the game.
Welcome to the IDP Nation Podcast. We are your hosts Dan Cook and Darrell Winstead. We’ve got you covered from your LB1 to your taxi squad.
NFL camps are in full swing, but so are the injuries. The first week of camp has brought on an onslaught of injuries and we’ve got Garret Price of the Dynasty Nerds in the house to help break them all down and how they affect your rosters. Then zombies, dynasty zombies, the kind that just […]
Whether you believe in the third-year breakout theory for wide receivers or not, there is a strong case to be made for a number of players from the 2017 NFL Draft class. I’m going to briefly discuss the notable third-year wide receivers and determine the likelihood that they break out in 2019. Using an arbitrary 25% increase over their best fantasy season to date using PPR scoring, I’m going to assess a percent chance that each player reaches their breakout score THIS season (suffice to say this is assuming the relative health of each player). Here is part two of this piece.
Welcome to the IDP Nation Podcast. We are your hosts Dan Cook and Darrell Winstead. We’ve got you covered from your LB1 to your taxi squad.
It has been a while since we’ve witnessed a fantasy running back as polarizing and talented as Joe Mixon. Last I can recall is Demarco Murray, maybe (feel free to offer suggestions, could be a fun discussion topic). Either way, the Joe Mixon takes are HOT. Some believe he can’t crack the top 10 again, and others project him as a candidate to finish the number one fantasy running back. Either one of those things can happen. I mean anything is possible, but what I want to analyze is the notion Mixon can’t be a top-five fantasy running back. This idea has been tossed around the twitter-verse and all over the fantasy community, but there is a strong case he will take the leap this year and elevate his play in 2019. The arrival of former LA Rams QB coach Zac Taylor and the West Coast offense is a major indicator Joe Mixon will be better utilized this year. Taylor played a major role in overseeing and constructing one of the most high powered offenses in the league last year. Sean McVay noted: “he was instrumental our in third-down game-planning.” Placing more emphasis on passing the ball certainly didn’t hurt Todd Gurley’s fantasy production last season. Gurley was the number three fantasy running back with 1,831 total yards and a remarkable 21 touchdowns in 14 games. The Bengals new offensive philosophy will have a dual effect, improving Mixon’s rushing and passing production. A breakdown of each aspect reveals how Joe Mixon and Zac Taylor can take his game to the next level. …………………….
Two statistical measurements are quickly growing in popularity among fantasy football analysts – Dominator Rating and Breakout Age. Essentially, these two variables tell us how productive a player was in college at their peak, and how old they were when that (hopefully) high level of production occurred. As I have become more comfortable working these numbers, I began to draw comparisons between established NFL players and incoming rookies with similar Dominator Ratings and Breakout Ages.According to PlayerProfiler, an incoming player with a Dominator Rating greater than 45% and a Breakout Age less than 19 years old is phenomenal. For the sake of this article, I am using a Dominator Rating of greater than 40% and a Breakout Age of younger than 20 years old for my comparative research on wide receivers. To filter out those rookies who produced immediately upon entering the league, I am using 600 yards receiving as a rookie and draft capital inside of Day 2 (Rounds 1-3) as my final cut off variable.Since 2010, there have been nine players who have met the cutoff of having a Dominator Rating of 40% or greater, a Breakout Age of less than 20 years old, who had at least 600 receiving yards their rookie year and were drafted in Rounds 1-3.
This year’s Scott Fish Bowl (SFB9) has been the talk of the fantasy town for the past few weeks. With drafts wrapped up, FFLinx reviews his lineup and goes over his strategies for this draft and other superflex and premium scoring leagues. Become a member to check out his team and see how his draft choices compare with yours. Would your team beat his?
One of my favorite buy-lows from last season got himself some new PAPER this offseason, signing a four year, $43m extension per Adam Shefter.Bengals are signing WR Tyler Boyd to a four-year, $43 million extension, league sources tell ESPN. Boyd now will be under contract through the 2023 season.— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) July 23, 2019His role as the Bengals WR2 for 2019, and WR1 in 2020-2023 is cemented in stone, right?Well, as you know if you read my piece on the Kyle Rudolph extension earlier this offseason, NFL contracts as initially reported can be quite deceiving. Let’s have a look at it now that we know the full details of the structure of the guaranteed money in the deal.The ContractPer Overthecap, here’s how it breaks down:- I have conditioned myself when looking at these tables to focus on the “cap number” column and to the right of it. I do this because it lays out quite nicely what it takes for a team to cut Boyd, should they so choose year by year. This is not an exact science by any means, but I start to look for when a team can save $6m towards their cap, this is when a player starts to be in jeopardy of becoming a cap casualty.
Welcome to the IDP Nation Podcast, the Factory Sports Network’s IDP-centric show. We are your hosts Dan Cook and Darrell Winstead. Are you ready for some tenacious IDP discussion? We’ve got you covered from your LB1 to your taxi squad. This is IDP Nation!
Welcome to Episode 85 of the @DynastyTradesHQ Podcast! “Trading Philosophies, […]
Whether you believe in the third-year breakout theory for wide receivers or not, there is a strong case to be made for a number of players from the 2017 NFL Draft class. I’m going to briefly discuss the notable third-year wide receivers and determine the likelihood that they break out in 2019. Using an arbitrary 25% increase over their best fantasy season to date using PPR scoring, I’m going to assess a percent chance that each player reaches their breakout score THIS season (suffice to say this is assuming the relative health of each player).
Let’s go back to 2015. A small, rookie wide receiver out of Kansas State, standing only 5’10”, 182 pounds, who was extremely fast (4.40 40), earned a spot in the Pro Bowl. He showed game-breaking ability as a receiver and returner, racking up over 1,000 total return yards and two touchdowns. He had 51 receptions for 664 yards, six touchdowns and finished as the WR44. The next two seasons he finished as the WR65 and WR57 respectively. In his fourth year, he would have one of the most efficient seasons of any receiver and finish as the WR16. If you haven’t figured it out by now, I am talking about the Seattle Seahawks wide receiver, Tyler Lockett.
Welcome to the IDP Nation Podcast, the Factory Sports Network’s IDP-centric show. We are your hosts Dan Cook and Darrell Winstead. Are you ready for some tenacious IDP discussion? We’ve got you covered from your LB1 to your taxi squad. This is IDP Nation!This week’s episode: Same hosts, same great IDP content, new name!News and NotesThe Fantasy Football Fellas (@TheFFfellas) Seth (@sethfffellas) and Kyle (@kyleFFfellas)Uniform Draft
Part of your duty as a dynasty owner is identifying high asset players and moving off of them before their value drops to a point you’re unable to get anything for them. It can be a hard pill to swallow, saying good-bye to a high caliber player who is in the prime of their career. But to sustain your team and remain competitive for years (not to mention avoid the uncertainty of an unknown rebuild), you will have to cut ties and gain maximum value for players. These decisions can be hard, but for Dynasty Football Factory members, they just became a lot easier.
We enter as a young boy talks with his (dynasty fantasy football) friends. His friends are scolding him for only playing with toys that are “so last year”. The young boy says to his friends, “I love these toys, they are fun to bring out and play with every time. I bet I can beat your toys in battle with my win-now team”. The rest of his friends gasp in the way that sheltered kids do when they’re not sure if parents are around, and they want to be able to save face with them if they were listening to what their friend just uttered. The young boy replies, “What? Win-now is not a dirty word!”I find myself playing dynasty much like this young boy likes to play with his toys. I see other owners celebrating players who have yet to break out like it’s a certainty that they do or entering start-up drafts while having no intention to win year one. I’ve been there, done that. Sometimes it works out well, other times you end up with a garbage roster full of post-hype players. Over years of playing dynasty, I’ve heard people talk about a three-year window or even a five-year window. I have found the most productive rosters I construct utilize a two-year window.There are quite a few benefits to this theology. Here are some of my favorites:Productive veteran players provide what might be the biggest competitive advantage in dynasty leaguesOwners are petrified to push the button in drafts on players who they believe only have one or two years of productivity left. When these types of players find themselves on rebuilding teams, the acquisition cost can be of insane value. Let’s take an example:-Julio Jones represents a player that dynasty players and redraft players are very different on. Per June ADP on DFF, Jones has an ADP of 22 overall (WR9). On Fantasypros.com which aggregates many ADP sources for redraft, Julio has an ADP of 11 overall (WR4). A difference of nearly a full round in 12 team leagues. You can find players who have a bigger difference, but in my opinion, dynasty ADP should roughly mirror redraft ADP for at least the first couple rounds. My rationale for saying so is the point of fantasy is to win. If the redraft community says that he is worth a late first-round selection and there’s no good reason to say he won’t be able to roughly duplicate a likely top 12 WR season from 2019 again in 2020, this should be a player worth pulling the trigger on close to his redraft valuation.I could go into his current contract dispute shedding light on the fact that he may find his way to a new team in 2020, but he’s still under contract for 2020 and I can’t fathom a world where he is a cap casualty at this point. Now you can quibble with Julio’s value all you want, but there’s more than just him slipping in dynasty drafts compared to redraft.
I’m going to give you at least one buy low dynasty asset at each position, that I believe you are must own or you should stash away on your bench or taxi squads. These players may need a year or so to give you a significant return, but it will be worth the wait. Let’s jump right into it.
Up first is the defensive tackle position, and we head to Buffalo, to discuss 2nd-year guy, Harrison Phillips. If you have been following me, then you know I was high on him coming out of Stanford. As a rookie, he played in all sixteen games but had zero starts. Harrison was buried on the depth chart behind veterans, Kyle Williams and Star Lotulelei. He outperformed Lotulelei and with Williams now retired; he’s a prime candidate to step into a starting role.
While I don’t believe coaches necessarily can make players better, […]
Handcuff. This simple noun is known worldwide from military equipment to adult erotic toys. It means something entirely different in the world of fantasy football. When I got into fantasy football, back in the mid-1990s, drafting a risky player with high draft capital meant you had to draft their backup as their “handcuff.” So, when that player got hurt, you could slide in their replacement without missing a beat. How the times have changed. What if in 2019 the term handcuff has changed? What if I told you that you don’t have to draft a high-risk player to stash handcuffs for depth on your bench? Here are five of my favorite handcuffs for the 2019 season that you don’t need to take a risk to reap the reward.
Ryquell Armstead (RB – JAX) The 5’11, 220-lb running back from Temple was drafted by the Jacksonville Jaguars in the 5th round this season. The draft capital isn’t high enough to sound the horn, but it boils down to this question: Do you trust Leonard Fournette’s ankles? He has missed 11 games so far in his first two years in the league. This comes after missing six games in his final season at LSU. Alfred Blue is listed second in the depth chart, but when it comes to explosiveness, Armstead is faster and more athletic than Blue. With no T.J. Yeldon or Corry Grant in the mix, the backfield is not as cloudy as last year. Once Fournette goes down with his annual ligament injury, don’t be surprised when Armstead takes his opportunity and runs with it. Pun intended. Armstead’s current ADP is around the 18th round…………………