Dynasty Trendz

Finding trends in underlying data has always been critical to staying one step ahead of your Dynasty league. Many key metrics stabilize quicker than fantasy points and predict future fantasy breakouts. This series analyzes that data for you and details which players you need to be ahead of the curve on before their Dynasty value appreciates or depreciates.

Here were some situations I was watching closely in Week 1.

Green Bay Wide Receivers Wide Receivers

The Packers have one of the deepest wide receiver rooms in the NFL. Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks are each worthy of starting roles. Even Bo Melton surprised in limited usage last year. 

Wicks led all Packer wide receivers in yards per route run at 2.30 last year, but his role was most in question. Reed seemed cemented into the slot, and his 2.20 YPRR ranked 2nd. Watson (1.80) and Doubs (1.50) trailed. 

However, Week 1 was an unmitigated disaster for this wide receiver situation. The biggest news was Jordan Love’s MCL strain with a likely 4-to-6 week recovery time. Compounding that was the fact that no wide receiver had over a 20% target share. That is what we all feared coming into the season and it indeed manifested.

Reed was the WR8 overall in fantasy from weeks 10 to 18 last year. He picked up right where he left off and his role is firm. Reed was electric and is the only remotely startable option here until Love returns. However, I would be cautious even with him. As for Doubs, Wicks, and Watson, I don’t see any of them as reliable starters in Love’s absence.

There is no sense selling on these players right now with Love out. You would be selling low. At a cost of just WR48, Doubs may be worth sending out some lowball offers on. 

Houston Texans Wide Receivers

The Texans have a lethal offensive attack and one of the top wide receiver rooms in the NFL with Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell. Dell is highly productive when he plays. When both he and Nico Collins played together, Dell averaged more fantasy points, yards, and touchdowns.

With the addition of Stefon Diggs, it was very much in question as to how this unit would be deployed. Collins seemed locked into the X position, but would the Texans manage Dell’s snaps to keep him healthy?

Each WR ran roughly the same amount of routes. That is very encouraging for Tank Dell. His Dynasty cost had some concern baked in about him being the odd man out in terms of routes. 

Buy Tank Dell. Hold Nico Collins (he is too expensive to be a buy) and Stefon Diggs.

Dallas Cowboys Running Backs

From a talent perspective, this is perhaps the least exciting backfield situation in the NFL with a middling journeyman Rico Dowdle and way past their prime journeymen Ezekiel Elliot and Dalvin Cook.

However, this is still a good offense, which means there will be touchdown opportunities. 

Neither Dowdle nor Elliot is a good starting option for fantasy, but if you must choose one, choose Elliot.

Los Angeles Rams Running Backs

X was abuzz last week when it was reported that Kyren Williams would be returning punts. Blake Corum has been one of the biggest names in college football for the past few years. It is questionable how good Corum still is. His junior year efficiency stats pre-knee injury were far more impressive than his senior year. He was outside the top 10 RBs in this rookie class in missed tackles forced per attempt.

Kyren had similar bellcow usage to last year when he was the RB2 overall in fantasy points per game. He had a huge 91% snap rate. Blake Corum didn’t even get a carry. Williams’ Dynasty cost had been suppressed all off-season because of the anticipated decrease in usage, so he is still cheap.

Buy Kyren Williams.

Tennessee Titans Running Backs

The word all off-season was this backfield would be a 50/50 split. This came straight from the coach’s mouth. Yet in Week 1, Pollard had four times the rush attempts of Spears in the game. The good news for fantasy is that we had a situation where neither running back was particularly startable. Now it looks like Pollard is flex-worthy.

Buy Tony Pollard.

Miami Dolphins Running Backs

We all know De’Von Achane is a great player in a great scheme. He posted otherworldly efficiency stats last year en route. His usage in Week 1 was exciting.

Most figured touches will be somewhat limited to keep him healthy. 17 is a great number and the distribution is fantastic. If he is going to get limited touches, we want them to be targets vs. rush attempts, as a target is worth 2.5 times a rush attempt in fantasy. Achane is an excellent receiver. 

Buy De’Von Achane. He is right there with Jahmyr Gibbs as far as Dynasty value for me.

Chicago Bears Running Backs

D’Andre Swift was a big-money free agent acquisition. Despite this, there were significant questions on how Chicago would deploy Swift, Khalil Herbert, and Roschon Johnson. Well, Johnson appears to be the odd man out, as he was a healthy scratch. Caleb Williams, D.J. Moore, Velus Jones, and Travis Homer each had more rush yards than Khalil Herbert.

Swift has historically brought nice usage in the passing game, but given the Bears’ WRs and Caleb’s ability, it is unlikely he has a big year receiving.

Chicago Bears Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen looks like a screaming buy right now. He led the Bears with 11 targets, and the best part for buyers is his cost will still be low, as he finished with only 29 receiving yards. He was the WR3 overall in fantasy points per game last year. The Dynasty community incorrectly assumed his targets would take a huge step back with a rookie QB, D.J. Moore, and first-round rookie Rome Odunze. Caleb Williams was looking for him often as shown by his insane 45.8% targets per route run.

KeepTradeCut values him as the WR54 overall so you can acquire him cheap! He has also talked about signing an extension. I already have several shares but will be looking to acquire more. Caleb Williams was playing in his first-ever game, so he showed an understandable discomfort and lack of chemistry with all of his receivers. That will improve each week.

Buy Keenan Allen.

Los Angeles Chargers Wide Receivers

This situation was on everyone’s watch list going into Week 1. The target distribution was wide open. The winner was Ladd McConkey, who already has established himself as the alpha in the room, despite being a rookie in his first game. You can expect that chemistry with Herbert to only build from here.

Unfortunately, as suspected, the total pie here is likely to be much less than it has been in the past for Justin Herbert.

Buy Ladd McConkey.

Tampa Bay Buccaneer Running Backs

Now to the other side of the coin. As for the most inefficient starting running back last season, that honor belonged to Rachaad White.

Per Fantasyptsdata, last season, among the 23 running backs that carried the ball at least 200 times, Rachaad White ranked dead last in yards after contact per carry (2.24), missed tackles forced per carry (0.14), *and* rushing yards over expectation per carry (-0.41).

Enter fourth-round rookie Bucky Irving, a decisive downfield runner. Irving ranked top five in this rookie class in PFF Rush Grade (90.8), Target share (11.7%), missed tackles forced per attempt (.36), and career yards after contact per attempt (3.81).

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You are probably too late, but if Irving is available in any league of yours (Redraft or Dynasty), he needs to be a priority waiver add. He took over the rushing game in the second half after White was ineffective once again. Irving was used as the closer.

Oakland Raider Running Backs

The coach-speak coming into this week seemed to indicate Zamir White would see very heavy usage on early downs. Instead, this is looking like more of a committee.

Neither back looks like a great starting option.

Jacksonville Jaguar Running Backs

This backfield split was quite a surprise. Etienne was an expensive asset. If this is anywhere close to a 50/50 split, his Dynasty value is going to tank.

Baltimore Tight Ends

Isaiah Likely exploded for 9 receptions, 111 yards, and a touchdown. The Ravens had Andrews and Likely on the field together 39 times. This was more than twice as much as any game last year. The Chiefs were 5th overall in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends, so we knew this would be a tough matchup for Andrews. Likely was used in a variety of ways to complement Andrews, who was often double-teamed. 

We have long known what Likely has been capable of. However, Andrews has always been an obstacle to his usage. The fact they played together so often is a tremendous sign for Likely going forward. Andrews will still get his as defenses shift coverage, so do not sell low on him.

Per PFF’s Nathan Jahnke:

Plays Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely were on the field together tonight: 39

Most plays Andrews and Likely were on the field together in a game last season: 16

– 70% snaps

– Team high 12 targets, 9 catches, 111 yards, TD

– 24 routes (28 for Andrews)

– 52% snaps came from slot

– Nearly had a 2nd TD!

Ravens route participation rates and target shares for Week 1:

• Mark Andrews: 72%, 5%
• Isaiah Likely: 69%, 30%

Buy Isaiah Likely. Hold Mark Andrews.

Other Notables:

• DeVonta Smith played 71% of his snaps from the slot vs. just 36 last year. This usage is big for his fantasy value. Kellen Moore brought his motion offense to Philly that helped make Keenan Allen the WR3 overall in fantasy points per game last year. 

Per Scott Barrett:

“Since Smith entered the league, he’s run just 23% of his routes from the slot. But over this span, he ranks 7th-best of 119 WRs in YPRR from the slot (2.48 vs. 1.66 on all other routes). A.J. Brown ranks 28th (1.76). Smith also still holds the PFF College-era record (2014-present) for career YPRR from the slot with 4.96. Only one other WR was over 3.60. Given his slight frame, he would also benefit the most by use of motion; getting free access off the ball away from physical DBs to quickly generate velocity and take advantage of his accelerating speed.”

The best part is this did not manifest into big fantasy production in Week 1, so you still have a buy window. 

• Ray-Ray Mcloud had a 30% target share. Target him on waivers. He is only 30% rostered on Sleeper.
• Devaughn Vele had a healthy 19% target share. He is available in 91% of leagues on Sleeper.
• Greg Dortch was a popular sleeper coming into the season and backed that up with a 26% target share.
• Cooper Kupp’s Dynasty funeral was planned far too soon. He was a great buy all off-season and camp reports were glowing on his role this year. His 21 targets in Week 1 led all wide receivers.
• Drake London had just a 13% target share. If you didn’t move him during his sell-high window, I am sorry.

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I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your Dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting

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