Good to see you all back! For those of you who haven’t yet read my first installment, check it out here. In this installment, I’ll try to shed some light on which of my specific roster builds did the best and worst. Finally, we will close with some of my highest rostered players (whether good or […]
Best Ball Newbie Perspective Part 2 Read More »
Fantasy football without the grind of setting a bunch of lineups? That has to be the dream. This past offseason I decided to try some paid best ball contests to see if I could make myself a more well-rounded fantasy player. At DFF, we believe that every aspect of fantasy football bleeds into the others, and thus, I had my motivation to jump in. Plus…it certainly didn’t hurt that drafting is an addiction. Being new to the format, I decided to track all the data I possibly could on my performance/selections. This way, I could maybe help or inspire others who may be new to the format in the future.
Best Ball Newbie Perspective: Part 1 Read More »
Every week this series will attempt to bring clarity to the goings-on, both on and off the field within each NFL Division so that dynasty owners can make championship level decisions based on our actionable information. Our writers will be digging through data and film for inference on coach/front office decision making so that they
NFC North Nuggets Week 15 Read More »
Every week this series will attempt to bring clarity to the goings-on, both on and off the field within each NFL Division so that dynasty owners can make championship level decisions based on our actionable information. Our writers will be digging through data and film for inference on coach/front office decision making so that they can keep you equipped with the “nuggets” you need to succeed. Many trade deadlines and such have passed, so this week I intend to focus on notable role changes for each team’s player.
NFC North Factory Divisional Nuggets: Week 13 Read More »
As a commissioner and as an active member of many leagues, I’m going to go over what I feel to be the most common league settings that get people up in arms. I’ll also show you how the bylaws/structure of your leagues can be tailored towards fairness and minimal self-interest.
Dynasty League Owner Experience Boosters! Read More »
Every week this series will attempt to bring clarity to the goings-on, both on and off the field within each NFL Division so that dynasty owners can make championship level decisions based on our actionable information. Our writers will be digging through data and film for inference on coach/front office decision making so that they can keep you equipped with the “nuggets” you need to succeed.
NFC North Factory Divisional Nuggets: Week 11 Read More »
Jace Sternberger (TE)
The promising rookie looks to be set for a return from IR soon, as he is back at practice. I wouldn’t look for him to take the starting role from Jimmy Graham any time in the near future, but if you need a nice flier at the position, now would be the last time to pick him up before playing time increases his price.
NFC North Divisional Nuggets: Week 7 Read More »
Geronimo Allison (WR-GB)
It’s very clear that Allison is the team’s third-best option when Adams and MVS are both healthy, but if he finds a way to produce before Adams can come back from injury you’ll want to act fast in selling him. He’s only commanding an 11% target share and 11% of the team’s air yards, even with the increased opportunity the last couple games. Those figures are just not something you can reliably start any given week, as 11% of 35 passes is just three targets.
NFC North Divisional Nuggets: Week 5 Read More »
Allen Robinson, WRHe’s the best option in the passing game. Trubisky stares him down on plenty of plays. He’s averaging nine targets per game, good for 26.5% target share. Nobody else on the team is above 20%. Taylor Gabriel is outscoring Robinson for the year, largely because he’s probably caught 60% of his yearly touchdowns vs the Redskins. Even with the great Gabriel performance, Robinson commands 38% of the team’s air yards. It’s only a matter of time before Robinson starts to find the end zone and breaks out. If somebody is just box score scouting, I’d offer a late first pretty easily for him. He’s just entering his athletic prime, more than a year removed from the ACL tear, and getting awesome volume. Gobble up those shares.
Divisional Nuggets: NFC North Week 3 Update Read More »
With news of Ben Roethlisberger being done for the season with an elbow injury, likely requiring Tommy John surgery how does that affect the Steelers fantasy assets. Before we go into what this means for young Mason Rudolph, we are best served to look at when we can reasonably expect Roethlisberger to be out for, and if we can expect him to return to pre-injury form or not.
No Mason Around: Rudolph takes over for the injured Big Ben Read More »
Every week this series will attempt to bring clarity to the goings-on, both on and off the field within each NFL Division so that dynasty owners can make championship level decisions based on our actionable information. Our writers will be digging through data and film for inference on coach/front office decision making so that they can keep you equipped with the “nuggets” you need to succeed.
Factory Divisional Nuggets: NFC North Read More »
I was humbled when I was asked to participate in the DFF Redraft Championship. I must have endeared myself to them with my proclivity for win-now squads in dynasty. I’ve never written about a redraft team or league before, so be gentle. Here goes nothing! My look back at my initial draft strategy for the league.
My DFF Redraft Squad Review Read More »
Introducing Factory Divisional Nuggets. We break down every division to give you the takes you need. Who will boom and who will bust? Are there values to be found? All that and more. This week the article will be a bit more long-form than your typical bi-weekly installment, but I wanted to give a preview and set baselines for expectations for all the NFC North teams.
Factory Divisional Nuggets: NFC North Read More »
Michael Thomas’ contract has been reported for a few days, but the salary cap information for Michael Thomas’ contract extension is publicly available now. If you read some of my other pieces on player contracts like Kyle Rudolph or Tyler Boyd, you know the difference between something dynasty owners should react positively to, or to fade doing so. Generally, when a player makes money as Thomas did, we don’t need to question if the guaranteed money will be substantial enough. However, the first time we don’t follow the process step by step is the first time we will find ourselves burnt by doing so. So let’s dive into his new deal, shall we?
Michael Thomas Extension Read More »
One of my favorite buy-lows from last season got himself some new PAPER this offseason, signing a four year, $43m extension per Adam Shefter.Bengals are signing WR Tyler Boyd to a four-year, $43 million extension, league sources tell ESPN. Boyd now will be under contract through the 2023 season.— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) July 23, 2019His role as the Bengals WR2 for 2019, and WR1 in 2020-2023 is cemented in stone, right?Well, as you know if you read my piece on the Kyle Rudolph extension earlier this offseason, NFL contracts as initially reported can be quite deceiving. Let’s have a look at it now that we know the full details of the structure of the guaranteed money in the deal.The ContractPer Overthecap, here’s how it breaks down:- I have conditioned myself when looking at these tables to focus on the “cap number” column and to the right of it. I do this because it lays out quite nicely what it takes for a team to cut Boyd, should they so choose year by year. This is not an exact science by any means, but I start to look for when a team can save $6m towards their cap, this is when a player starts to be in jeopardy of becoming a cap casualty.
Tyler Boyd Contract: Fake extension or legit? Read More »
We enter as a young boy talks with his (dynasty fantasy football) friends. His friends are scolding him for only playing with toys that are “so last year”. The young boy says to his friends, “I love these toys, they are fun to bring out and play with every time. I bet I can beat your toys in battle with my win-now team”. The rest of his friends gasp in the way that sheltered kids do when they’re not sure if parents are around, and they want to be able to save face with them if they were listening to what their friend just uttered. The young boy replies, “What? Win-now is not a dirty word!”I find myself playing dynasty much like this young boy likes to play with his toys. I see other owners celebrating players who have yet to break out like it’s a certainty that they do or entering start-up drafts while having no intention to win year one. I’ve been there, done that. Sometimes it works out well, other times you end up with a garbage roster full of post-hype players. Over years of playing dynasty, I’ve heard people talk about a three-year window or even a five-year window. I have found the most productive rosters I construct utilize a two-year window.There are quite a few benefits to this theology. Here are some of my favorites:Productive veteran players provide what might be the biggest competitive advantage in dynasty leaguesOwners are petrified to push the button in drafts on players who they believe only have one or two years of productivity left. When these types of players find themselves on rebuilding teams, the acquisition cost can be of insane value. Let’s take an example:-Julio Jones represents a player that dynasty players and redraft players are very different on. Per June ADP on DFF, Jones has an ADP of 22 overall (WR9). On Fantasypros.com which aggregates many ADP sources for redraft, Julio has an ADP of 11 overall (WR4). A difference of nearly a full round in 12 team leagues. You can find players who have a bigger difference, but in my opinion, dynasty ADP should roughly mirror redraft ADP for at least the first couple rounds. My rationale for saying so is the point of fantasy is to win. If the redraft community says that he is worth a late first-round selection and there’s no good reason to say he won’t be able to roughly duplicate a likely top 12 WR season from 2019 again in 2020, this should be a player worth pulling the trigger on close to his redraft valuation.I could go into his current contract dispute shedding light on the fact that he may find his way to a new team in 2020, but he’s still under contract for 2020 and I can’t fathom a world where he is a cap casualty at this point. Now you can quibble with Julio’s value all you want, but there’s more than just him slipping in dynasty drafts compared to redraft.
Win-Now is Not a Dirty Word Read More »
Sometimes in dynasty fantasy football, it can be hard to know if your roster is worthy of a championship run or not. There are stacked teams, but this is a high variance game that we so love, so even the stacked teams find ways not to win sometimes. Today I’ll show you how to quantifiably show you are in the ballpark of contention for either a playoff spot or a championship run.
How do we do that, Mike? Well, if you’ve read my stuff before, you know I love using VBD (Value Based Drafting) for a variety of subjects. If you haven’t read some of it before, I’ve previously shown you how to game your league format using the concept, as well as quantifying how much tight-end-premium scoring really matters. A lot can be learned from comparing players to “replacement level”. That’s the very basic definition of VBD if you’re unfamiliar with the concept.
Alright already, let’s get into it then! First off, VBD is built off projections. So you will have to find your favorite set of, hopefully fairly granular projections, and get them into a player database. Once you have this, you can apply your league’s scoring format to the season-long projections for every player to determine just how many points each player projects to score, specifically for your league. For this article, I’m using my good buddy @FF_TomB ‘s season-long projections. It’s honestly better than anything I could have gotten put together this year, not having done so before. Plus he let me in to see how the “sausage is made” so to speak and I wholeheartedly approve of his methodology. I also held a contest on Twitter to decide whose league to break down. My fellow “815” guy @JasonTran guessed my favorite Chicago Bear of all time correctly.
For my next article, I’ll be working to bolster a team in its championship window with some redraft concepts! I’d like to use somebody else’s roster and league to write about. The winner of this contest will be the 1st to successfully name my favorite Bear player ever. #DFFArmy pic.twitter.com/njCR9L1oNS
— Mike2FFB (@DFF_Mike2) July 9, 2019
If you don’t know who Peanut Tillman is, look him up. He’s a genuinely cool person outside of the sport too. But…that’s not why you clicked the link to this article!
Here are the scoring and starting requirements for Jason’s league:
As you can see here, it’s a relatively normal starting lineup for an offense only Superflex league. Flex heavy lineups allow for some cool roster construction techniques compared to more rigid starting lineup settings. A few things to note about their scoring that’s different from many leagues.
Using VBD to Determine Your Chances of Contention Read More »
Kyle RudolphIt’s important that we note the contract he had before. For those who don’t spend a lot of time on Spotrac, he had a $7.625m cap hit with zero dead cap (money still counting towards the team’s cap for the year). Virtually any time a player has zero dead cap in a year, he represents a cut candidate, or what some people may call a “cap casualty”. This fact was especially exacerbated by the fact that the Vikings were up against the salary cap for the year with very little room for flexibility. It’s not uncommon for teams to look at having $7.625m more cap space as being more valuable than a player. In this case, the Vikings found a way to have their cake and eat it too, while also giving Rudolph some short term guarantees………..
Kyle Rudolph Contract Extension Read More »
Earlier this offseason, I wrote this article about how to apply the concept of VBD to compare league formats. I didn’t look at this concept in the article, but I looked at something remarkably similar. I looked at the difference between a particularly “beefed up” scoring system for quarterbacks, and 2QB/super flex leagues. What we found was that even in a pretty high scoring setup for quarterbacks, there were still more quarterbacks in the top 30 VBD players in the super flex format than the beefy 1QB scenario. Let’s do something similar for TE-premium.
How much does Tight End Premium scoring matter? Read More »
If you are reading this article, you probably like to trade. It doesn’t take an avid mentalist to propose that thought, though. The vast majority of dynasty football players love to trade. This is understandable because of how crucial trading is to capture value for your rosters. I’ve compiled a list of trading theory and tips, many of which you probably already know. However, it’s always good to get a refresher on the best practices of trading.
Trading: Who, What, When, Where, and Why? Read More »
