In all of my (relatively short) years of watching football, I’ve never experienced a free agency quite like this. As I’m writing this article, Aaron Donald announced his retirement and that seems to be only the 10th most important thing that happened over the last 3 days. Over this free agency, Mike Williams was released, Austin Ekeler was signed to the Commanders, and Keenan Allen was traded to the Bears. This begs the question—what the hell is Justin Herbert supposed to do?
Let’s take a look at the Chargers’ draft picks first –
1st round – No. 5
2nd round – No. 37
3rd round – No. 69
4th round – No. 105
4th round – No. 110 (from Chicago)
5th round – No. 140
6th round – No. 181
7th round – No. 225
7th round – No. 253 (compensatory pick)
With the loss of their WR1 and 2, it’s now no doubt that the Chargers will be selecting Malik Nabers of LSU with their first pick. However, this is their depth chart –
Yuck. It’s clear that the Chargers will have to add another wide receiver and running back during free agency or during the draft, but who those players will be remains to be seen. Most of the premium wide receivers are gone, but a few notable names that have yet to be signed are
Hunter Renfrow, and
Some notable RBs left are
Ezekiel Elliott, and
Some potential targets for their draft picks could be Adonai Mitchell (WR) or Ladd McConkey (WR), though it’s highly unlikely the Chargers would use both their 1st and 2nd round picks on wide receivers. It’s more likely they’d use their 3rd and 4th round picks on wide receivers or running backs (maybe even a tight end). Some choices in the third could be Cade Stover (TE), Trey Benson (RB), or Ja’lynn Polk (WR), while some choices in the fourth (two selections) could be Jermaine Burton (WR), Jalen McMillan (WR), Jaheim Bell (TE), Jamari Thrash (WR), or Braelon Allen (RB). A splash pick by Harbaugh could be his former Michigan RB Blake Corum, but I find it unlikely that the Chargers would spend valuable draft capital on any RB given the amount of holes on their roster and how many free agent RBs still exist.
All of this is to say that the Chargers’ offense is not anything I want to touch this upcoming year. The only two Dynasty assets I’d like to roster would be Justin Herbert and Malik Nabers. Some analysts like @force_fantasy say that “Nabers has the most elite analytical profile since Ja’Marr Chase,” and in a year without Marvin Harrison Jr., he’d be the obvious WR1 of the class. I don’t believe in vacated targets, so I don’t expect Quentin Johnston, who I was once a fan of, to suddenly pick up the baton left by his two former teammates, so I won’t be investing. If you can sell now, I would. Gus Edwards doesn’t excite me, but I imagine he’ll fall into the endzone at least a few times, so he’s worth a waiver wire add. Vacated targets aren’t real, but vacated touches very much are. As for the play-caller himself, Herbert will probably still throw for more than 4000 yards and 30 touchdowns in a 2023 Patrick Mahomes-esque season, distributing 800 yards evenly to the worst players you’ve ever seen. I will never doubt the skill of Herbert and will continually buy, especially if the loss of Allen drops his price in your leagues.
Finally, I’m buying Keenan Allen at price, but not right now. A good rule of thumb is to buy productive, aging Dynasty assets at the beginning or middle of the season so as not to invest in competing before you know that you are. It’s always better to be as flexible as possible while playing Dynasty and aging vets are one of the least flexible assets that exist. I imagine Keenan will have a good season, but you can buy him at the same price he is now during week 5 of the 2024 season.
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