Past Production
The Raheem Mostert hype train left the station long ago in the 2019 NFC Conference Championship when he handled 29 rushing attempts for 220 yards and four touchdowns in the win over the Packers. Most don’t recall one of the main reasons he had to bear the load is because Tevin Coleman suffered a shoulder injury, sidelining him for the remainder of the game.
Most remember him capping off the season successfully as the lead back, and he was quite productive. Mostert finished with at least 10+ carries and a touchdown in the final five games of the regular season. He ended the season with 137 carries for 772 yards and 14 catches for 180 yards and 10 total touchdowns. Wildly efficient.
What most don’t recall is Matt Breida being the clear lead back before aggravating an ankle injury in Week 9 and being virtually useless the rest of the season. Tevin Coleman had also been hampered all year by an ankle injury he suffered in Week 2, creating the perfect storm for the Raheem Mostert experience from Week 11 on. Even in those final five games, Mostert played over 60% of the offensive snaps only one time. He finished 2019 with just a 36.4% snap share.
2020 Outlook
Mostert’s current dynasty ADP (100) and redraft ADP (51) is shockingly high. He’s being drafted ahead of Kareem Hunt, Mark Ingram, and Ronald Jones as the RB18 in dynasty formats.
How many carries can we reasonably expect for Raheem Mostert in 2020? Probably somewhere between 150-180 and he’s likely to be less efficient. It’s highly unlikely any 49ers’ running back receives 200+ carries in this RBBC offense. It’s hard to see how Mostert could crack the top 20, let alone the top 25, with less than 200 carries.
Mostert could still provide some fantasy value to your team in 2020 but he’s not nearly worth what you’d have to pay to get him and he’s certainly not a three-down running back. He will be utilized alongside Tevin Coleman, Jerick McKinnon, and whatever other warm body coach Shanahan decides to bring in to compete.
Dynasty Analysis
Raheem Mostert should be atop all of the “sell high” lists across the industry. His current ADP alone is a sign to test the market. Reports indicate Jerick McKinnon is healthy and back in the fold while Tevin Coleman still looms in the shadows. I personally want no part of this backfield.
A 49ers’ running back played more than 70% of the offensive snaps just once last year. Let’s not forget who Kyle Shanahan is and how he utilizes running backs. Remember Jeff Wilson scored two touchdowns in Week 1 and was “the guy”. Mostert had just a 32.2% opportunity share (total team running back carries plus targets) in 2019. Shanahan runs a running back by committee offense and that isn’t about to change for the Journeyman Raheem Mostert in 2020.
Thank you for reading. If you have any thoughts or would like to discuss, you can find me on Twitter @WillieBeamanDFF.
