Hello DFF members, I am Chris, and I am doing a rookie roundup series for the 2023 season. My primary space in fantasy centers around analytics, rookie models, and early career models, so this is something I should be able to make beneficial content out of. This will be released every two weeks, and I will keep you updated on how these rookies have been performing and how their values should be changing. I will provide my take on their current value. This should be used as a tool when buying or selling as what I think their “fair value” is. I would be trying to make moves for these players where you buy for less and sell for more, but if you can get the price I list, I do think it is still in your favor. We have a lot to talk about; let’s get right into it.
Zay Flowers – 61/44/461/1 (Targets/Receptions/Yards/Touchdowns)
Zay has pretty much continued at the same pace as of late. There’s not much to say here other than he is still Lamar’s favorite receiver, and I do not see that changing anytime soon.
Current Value: Late-first
Puka Nacua – 89/61/795/2
Puka has officially proven he is that dude, even with Kupp back in the lineup. He has continued to rise for me, and I do not see why he shouldn’t be in the tier with guys like Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, and Jaylen Waddle. If Puka can keep this up, he will rise even further, maybe to dynasty WR5.
Current Value: Mid-first + mid-second
Jahmyr Gibbs – 76/399/2 – 33/28/165/0 (Rush Attempts/Yards/TDs – Targets/Recs/Yards/TDs)
Gibbs has arrived! We finally get a sneak peek into the future of a David Montgomery-less Jahmyr Gibbs, and it has been beautiful. Back-to-back games over 25 fantasy points have been fantastic, and I think this displays his actual upside. I also think it will raise his floor for when Monty returns, so we can feel good about starting him for the rest of the season.
Current Value: Mid-first + late-first
Sam LaPorta – 59/43/434/4
LaPorta keeps churning, adding another touchdown and almost 20-point game on the year. At this point, LaPorta might be the confirmed dynasty TE1. And if he is, we should be trading two firsts for him. Give me LaPorta or give me death. I want all the shares.
Current Value: Mid-first + late-first
Rashee Rice – 39/30/361/3
Rice has been able to stay involved in the Chiefs offense, which is a big plus. I don’t think he will ever be a guy with elite upside, but he could certainly find himself being a consistent piece that you want to put in your lineup every week, and that sounds like a win to me.
Current Value: Early-second
C.J. Stroud – 143/237/1800/9/1 – 20/68/1 (Comp/Att/Yards/TDs/INTs – Rush Att/Yards/TDs)
C.J. Stroud had a bye during the break between roundups, so not much changed here. He still looks awesome, playing QB at a high level for his age and experience. Stroud is an asset I want on my teams; he should be valued close to the Burrow/Herbert tier already. I like to be ahead of the market, and I think he will be in that tier sooner than later. For me, that is about three mid-firsts, so if I can get him for less, I will take it every time.
Current Value: Three mid-firsts
Tank Dell – 32/22/340/2
Tank has remained largely unimpressive and will lose some value here for me. He was already not my favorite prospect, and I was ready to change my tune after his start to the season. But now, with seeing him in six games and only two of them being more than unusable, I am thinking the two usable games may be the outlier.
Current Value: Late-second
Jordan Addison – 52/36/482/7
Addison has continued his monstrous pace, even having two blowup games in the wake of Justin Jefferson missing time. Addison is quickly approaching the DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, and Chris Olave tier of dynasty WR, and I think we may be jumping too far out over our skis here. I don’t have any issue with him being next to Smith or Waddle. These are other WR2s that play with elite alphas. But once we start talking ARSB, Olave, Garrett Wilson, I am out. Plus, what will happen without Kirk for the rest of the season? I have no idea.
Current Value: Mid-first +mid-second
Bryce Young – 137/213/1202/7/4 – 12/76/0
Young just had maybe his best game of the season vs Houston. He was passing well, looking sharp, and taking care of the football. Bryce was in a solid spot to buy, in my opinion, but that window may be shutting. If we can see this state of play become more of a trend, his value will stabilize. If he takes another dip, I am right back into buying. Like I said last time, Bryce is playing within expectations and has not been awful, just not great. I will always buy young, decent QBs if they are cheap. If you can move a single first in value for Young, you should do it, especially if you move an older, productive QB2 type.
Current Value: Mid-first + late-first
Bijan Robinson – 92/466/1 – 37/26/189/2
Bijan is playing well but is also being stymied by the famous hater of fantasy football, Arthur Smith. However, Smith finally lost in embarrassing fashion in a game in which he did not utilize his studs, and I think ownership is starting to get to him. We also saw a drastic change from the team naming Heinicke their starter. This should be good for Bijan as I think Taylor is an upgrade at QB and should help run the offense more smoothly and provide more check-downs for Bijan. He is still the dynasty RB2; remember that.Â
Current Value: Two mid-firsts + mid-second
Marvin Mims – 14/11/246/1
Mims is starting to enter the zone of players who never see the field. He started the year with two targets in every game but has seen one or fewer in the last four. He also scored a total of -2.7 points over the last four weeks. I am about ready to sell for a 2nd if I can still get that anywhere.
Current Value: Mid-third
Quentin Johnston – 21/12/114/0
Johnston has managed to double his career receptions over the last two weeks. Signs of life are there. We need to see him getting more involved ASAP, though. If he can just get a solid 15% target share in the next few games and build on that as we head later into the season, he will be looking good value-wise heading into next year. It’d be good enough to sell for a first.
Current Value: Early-second + late-second
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – 36/23/209/2
Jaxon has caught some TDs!! We are seeing JSN grow, perform better, play more, and get more targets. This is great. He, unfortunately, is still very mid, but that is okay. We are not on panic watch anymore. He may not have been an immediate hit, but he can still get there and be a WR1 in dynasty someday.
Current Value: Late-first + mid-second
Zach Charbonnet – 28/162/0 -11/8/47/0
Charbonnet has gotten some glowing reviews from Pete Carroll over the last few weeks, but it has yet to show on the field. The kind words are encouraging, but it will be hard for him to become the starter without injury. Let’s see how this progresses over the next two weeks and see if his on-field role expands.
Current Value: Early-second
Dalton Kincaid – 34/30/258/1
The Kincaid breakout has arrived! Over the last two games, he has earned 15 targets, caught 13 balls for 140 yards, and a touchdown. He is thriving in the Bills offense, with Dawson Knox sidelined due to injury. Dalton is surely on his way to being a top-six dynasty TE, and it will be here before you know it.
Current Value: Late-First
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017. Shoot me a DM; they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy, where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
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