1.
Caleb Williams is a generational quarterback prospect walking into a generational receiving room situation for a first-overall pick. Do not overcomplicate your Superflex rookie draft. Take Caleb Williams at the 1.01.
2.
Wide Receivers drafted on day 3 of the NFL Draft (Rd 4-7) have a terrible hit rate. However, of the 38 Day 3 WRs drafted the last 3 years, 5 from that group and 1 from 2024 met this criteria:
- Yards per route run (Best season) >2.5
- College Career Fantasy Points Per Game >12.5
- Breakout age <21
Those five are Puka Nacua, Dontayvion Wicks, Romeo Doubs, Demario Douglas, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and the one from the 2024 class: Troy Franklin.
3.
Drew Brees averaged 13.8 FPPG pre-Sean Payton and 20.1 with Payton, Trevor Siemian averaged 15.1 FPPG with Payton, and Jameis Winston averaged 17.2 FPPG with Payton. Even the corpse of Russell Wilson averaged 17.7 with Payton (QB12), just 1 year after finishing as QB18. Bo Nix (a top-12 overall NFL Draft pick) is somehow a second-rounder in rookie drafts.
4.
Luke McCaffrey had the highest college career fantasy PPG starting at wide receiver of any player in this class. He likely walks into the starting slot role for the Commanders. Draft him in the late third of your rookie drafts.
5.
Last year D.J. Moore had a 28.9% target share. Keenan Allen had a 32% target share. Those are two alpha target earners. What is left on the bone for Rome Odunze in that offense this year?
6.
J.J. McCarthy enters one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the NFL. The Vikings are one of only two teams to be top-five in pass yards per game each of the last two years and they have Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson. You should be very in on J.J. McCarthy in the top-six picks of rookie drafts.
7.
Ricky Pearsall was a major reach in round one for the 49ers. Below is a list of all 1st round WRs with a cumulative score under 35 in my WR1 analytical model (see the 2024 version here) since 2007.
- DeVante Parker
- N’Keal Harry
- Jahan Dotson
- Jalen Reagor
- Kadarius Toney
- Calvin Ridley
- Phillip Dorsett
- Josh Doctson
Pearsall scored a 21.
8.
Gus Edwards was a huge winner from the NFL Draft with no running backs chosen by the Chargers before round 6. Before the draft, Chargers GM Joe Hortiz said this about RB Gus Edwards: “He’s the bell cow, the goal line guy, the finisher. I told you we wanted to be bigger, play a physical style of football on both sides of the ball and he helps us do that.” Further, they drafted stalwart tackle Joe Alt to bolster the offensive line. Harbaugh is one of the most run-friendly coaches in the NFL. Acquire Gus Edwards cheap in Dynasty.
9.
Also, draft Kimani Vidal in your rookie drafts in the late 3rd or early 4th. Vidal was last year’s college leader in PFF rush grade. He was drafted in the 6th round by the Chargers.
10.
Jonathon Brooks is the Dynasty RB1 in this rookie class and it’s not remotely close.
11.
If you are desperate for an RB in Dynasty, look towards the cheap old veteran market. See Gus Edwards above. There is help on the way in 2025 with a fantastic class vs. this year’s class which is quite mediocre.
12.
Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers both have a shot at 150 targets this year.
13.
I loved this quote about Ladd McConkey. “‘The QB knows where he’s going to be,’ Hortiz added. ‘That’s an outstanding thing to have and to bring to the Chargers.'” This is something that is rarely talked about and could be why an uber-separator like Jerry Jeudy never clicked.
14.
Both Nico Collins and Josh Palmer were mediocre NFL Draft prospects thrust into opportunity with an elite QB.
Prior 2 NFL years:
- Collins 481 and 446 receiving yards, Yards Per Route Run 1.68 and 1.24
- Palmer had 581 and 769 receiving yards, Yards Per Route Run 1.71 and 1.20
It is more likely that Collins was an outlier than that Palmer will make a massive leap, but I still like Palmer at value.
15.
Fun landing spot for Tyrone Tracy in New York:
- Weak incumbent starter
- Incredible athleticism
- Converted WR who crushed analytically in a small RB sample
He should be a top high-ceiling, low-floor target in the fourth round of rookie drafts.
16.
Per Scott Barrett, the top-10 Power 5 players with the highest contested target rate since 2017 include famous draft busts like JJ Arcega-Whiteside (37.3%), Denzel Mims (28.9%), Hakeem Butler (28.8%), Quentin Johnston (27.1%), Tylan Wallace (27.0%), Terrace Marshall (26.5%), and David Bell (26.5%). Keon Coleman’s contested target rate was an astoundingly bad 34.5%. This is the second-highest mark for a Power 5 receiver since 2017. Further, his contested catch % wasn’t very good last year at 33.3%.
17.
If you are out on Keon Coleman, as many are, you should be very in on Dalton Kincaid.
18.
Bucky Irving was a Dynasty-community favorite before he had a terrible Combine. The landing spot on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is a good one; Rachaad White was one of the least efficient RBs in the NFL last year as a rusher, although he’s an elite receiving option. Irving was in the top six in the class in missed forced tackles per attempt, yards after contact, and explosive run percentage. He also was second in target share among running backs—receiving prowess is the easiest route to consistent fantasy production at running back. I just picked up a Bucky Irving share at 4.04 in my last rookie draft—that is crazy value. I am back in on Bucky.
19.
Jerome Ford was an NFL Draft winner. Chubb is still rehabbing from a gruesome injury last year and the Browns did not draft a running back for their thing running back room.
20.
Even given this, the bigger news here is Nick Chubb. Not adding an RB is a huge vote of confidence for what they expect out of Chubb coming off his gruesome injury last year.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your Dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting
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