After being selected 173rd overall in the fifth round of last year’s NFL Draft, Mooney emerged as one of the most productive wide receivers for the Chicago Bears QUICKLY. In the Bears’ Week 1 matchup against the Lions, he hauled in three receptions for 38 yards, but you could see the potential in him right away. From then on, he produced at least two receptions per game throughout his rookie season.
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Many of us in the dynasty community were excited about Bryan Edwards last year, but based on the stats he put up as a rookie, it is fair to call him a rookie face planter. Historically, wide receivers who fail to reach meaningful thresholds are longshots to ever emerge in the future. I think Edwards can be an exception to the rule. Given proper context, much of last year’s poor fantasy stats can be explained.
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Darren Waller burst onto the scene during the 2019 season after years of bouts with substance abuse. Waller is a true American comeback story. After being suspended for the entire 2017 by the NFL, he overcame his addictions and found his way back onto the Ravens practice squad in 2018. From there, he was plucked by the Raiders and further developed behind aging starter Jared Cook. After Cook’s departure in free agency, Waller earned the starting job at TE for the Raiders.
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Michael Gallup’s college football career began at Butler Community College. As a freshman in 2014, he dominated the competition and led the team in receiving. Unfortunately, Gallup missed most of his sophomore season with an ankle injury before transferring to Colorado State University for his junior season. There, he posted back-to-back seasons of at least 1,250 yards. Gallup’s recorded breakout age of 20.5 is relatively late, but his 98th-percentile College Target Share and 75th-percentile College Dominator reflect a truly dominant finish to his college football career.
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Through his first 25 career games, Montgomery had yet to break out as he was averaging just over 54 rushing YPG, 3.6 YPC, 15.9 receiving YPG, and 7.2 YPR. In his last six games, he’s averaging an astonishing 99.7 rushing YPG, 5.2 YPC, 4.0 YPR, and 37.7 YPR. His late-season push last season moved him up to the RB4 spot in PPR leagues as he served as the RB1 during the last six weeks of the 2020 season.
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The fantasy community had high hopes for a Jonnu Smith breakout last season and did in some ways despite some injuries and the Titans’ infamously low passing volume. He still finished as the TE15 in PPR and TE9 in standard, but 2020 was also a terrible year for tight ends. Smith got most of his work from his dominance in the red zone, finishing number five in targets and scoring at a 20% rate with eight touchdowns. His 448 yards on 41 receptions certainly left truthers wanting more.
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CeeDee Lamb was a box-stuffing college prospect at Oklahoma. His Breakout Age of 19.4 ranks in the 80th percentile, while his 38.1% College Dominator ranks in the 77th percentile. Additionally, Lamb recorded a 97th-percentile College YPR and a 79th-percentile College Target Share. In other words, Lamb was highly targeted and extremely productive and efficient with the targets that he received–oh, and he did it all at a young age. To say that Ceedee Lamb was a “good” prospect would be a drastic understatement.
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To get a general idea of who Corey Davis is, he was an Upside prospect out of Western Michigan. Coming into the league at 6 feet 2.8 inches, 209 pounds, and a 26.3 BMI, he qualified as an Alpha. Which is a solid start to a profile, a prospect with potential upside and Alpha size. Unfortunately for Davis, he was selected by a team that deployed a low passing volume. Which played a big part in consensus not being high on him after his rookie season where he posted 375 receiving yards on 65 targets. But the raw numbers don’t do him justice. He owned a 19.1% target share is quite impressive. To get an idea of what Corey Davis’s first season told us, here is the fellow Upside Alpha’s who posted a target share within 3% of Corey Davis’ 19.1%.
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JuJu Smith-Schuster played college football at USC from 2014-2016. JuJu registered a breakout season as a true freshman with 54 receptions for 724 yards and five TDs, but he was truly dominant as a sophomore, racking up 1,454 yards and 10 TDs on 89 receptions. After a solid junior campaign, JuJu declared for the 2016 NFL Draft and was selected by the Pittsburgh Steelers with the 30th pick in the second round.
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Myles Gaskin played college football at the University of Washington from 2015-2018. Gaskin put together an impressive college career, rushing for over 1,200 yards and double-digit TDs in each of his four seasons. During the pre-draft process, he measured in at 5’ 9”, 205 lbs, and registered a below-average speed score with his 4.58 40-yard dash. Gaskin was selected by the Miami Dolphins in the seventh round of the 2019 NFL Draft.
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