Trying to forecast the dynasty stock market can be a daunting process. We have to account for what seems to be limitless variables. Coaching changes, draft picks, age, and even contracts all factor into whether we should buy, hold, or sell a player.
“IT’S JUST BUSINESS. EVERYTHING IS JUST BUSINESS WITH US: BUY FOR A NICKEL, SELL FOR A DIME.” – SPIROS “VONDAS” –THE WIRE
In my opinion, no quote could ever better encapsulate the meaning of “Buying Low and Selling High” than the one posted above. Whereas Vondas was referring to something else entirely, this quote always comes to mind when pondering the trade market. Below I will analyze the buys, sells, holds from the Miami Dolphins. But I would like to make one point clear before we dive into those players. Each league and team construction will greatly determine if a player is a buy, sell, or hold. I hope this list will help you in your quest to dynasty dominance. Enjoy.
DeVante Parker, WR
The former 2015 1st round pick, Parker, is entering his mythical “breakout 3rd season” in the NFL. As covered by DFF’s very own Eric Iannaccone here, the 3rd year breakout is very real and things are lining up nicely for the former Louisville player. The skill and talent are obviously there, he’s just been held back by injuries and inconsistency thus far. If his coaches are to be believed, both of those problems are in the rearview mirror heading into the 2017 season. The hype surrounding him is picking up, so try to buy him now before he starts looking good in the pre-season.
De’Veon Smith, RB
The Dolphins have budding star Jay Ajayi at running back and his role as the lead back is safe, but he does come with some injury concerns and the depth chart behind him isn’t very inspiring. Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams are decent backups, but Smith can replicate the punishing style of Ajayi better. He’s a perfect back for the Dolphins to throw in on short yardage and save some of the pounding that is typically earmarked for Ajayi. Smith is no lock to make the roster at this point, but he has reportedly looked good in OTAs and is worth a late-round flier (especially as a handcuff for Ajayi owners). As a player who is going undrafted in all but the most extremely deep leagues, Smith is typically available on waivers.
Leonte Carroo, WR
A year ago the Dolphins traded up to grab Carroo in the 3rd round. but now, after being on the field for only 120 snaps last year, he is reportedly facing a real risk of not making the team’s 53-man roster- how the mighty have fallen! At best he’s the team’s #4 receiver and with Parker, Landry, and Stills ahead of him, targets and opportunities will be hard to come by. Many in the analytics crowd are still big fans of his.
If they are willing to pay for him, let them, it may be time to move on. The team just gave Stills a big contract and Parker will be around for at least 2 more years. Carroo’s only path to success is if an injury occurs to one of the players ahead of him on the depth chart, or if the team chooses to let Landry go following the 2017 season (Landry’s contract expires after this season).
Kenny Stills, WR
Capitalize on Stills’ big 2016 right now and trade him as soon as you possibly can. It’s not that I don’t think he’s capable of putting up similar numbers to last season (40+ receptions, 700+ yards, and 9 TDs), but at what cost to your weekly lineup? He only topped 100 yards in a game once, 6 of his 9 touchdowns came in games where he had 3 or fewer receptions, and in 5 of his 16 games(nearly 33%), he recorded 0 or 1 receptions. He’s a great play if you’re playing DFS or are in a best ball league, but in season long dynasty leagues, that kind of volatility is brutal. Move on and let another owner deal with that weekly chaos.
Jarvis Landry, WR
Landry has averaged 102 receptions on 148 targets over the last 2 seasons. He’s as consistent and solid as they come in fantasy football and is among the top-ranked players in ESPN’s consistency rankings. With a high floor each and every week, unless another owner is looking to overpay, you’ll never get an adequate return on him in a trade. Keep him and ride out his career and enjoy your fantasy points.
Jay Ajayi, RB
Similar to Landry, You’re going to have a hard time getting appropriate value back in a trade for Ajayi. He has the upside to be an elite running back, both in real football and in fantasy. The rumors about his knees have circulated for a few years now, and people trying to trade for him will always bring that up too. So, if you have him, stick with him and ride his bone-on-bone grinding knees into the dirt just like the Dolphins appear to be doing. Top producing backs are always fun to have on your fantasy roster; no need to move him…especially to owners looking for a discount exploiting his rumored impending knee injuries.