Week 15 Start & Sit

Week 15 Start & Sit

 

Most leagues only have one more week to go, it’s crazy how this season has just blown by. Before you know it, we’ll be drafting and getting ready for next year in no time. Anyway, back to the present… If you’re reading this, then hopefully you’re still alive and well into the fantasy playoffs, playing to secure a spot in your league finals next weekend. Hopefully, this article has been a help to you throughout the season, you have many options out there and thank you for choosing us when contemplating your weekly start sit dilemmas. As usual, we have our picks for start & sit across all positions, plus JT’s IDP start ‘em section and finally Rick Kerns and I break down the Las Vegas Lines for a few games and let you know how we think that will affect certain games and players.

Taking a look at the Las Vegas Gambling lines for this weeks’ games, as always myself and Rick Kerns @CoachKernzy will be breaking down the highest and lowest projected scoring games (and teams) of the weekend, hopefully giving you a little insight into what teams and players to focus on or avoid.

The Saints visit the Cardinals with a game total of 50. The Cardinals air attack is clearly not what it once was, so they lean heavily on David Johnson. He’s the workhorse here. Ride him. The Saints are losing offensive steam as well, but they are going to keep slinging it around so Brees and company are always good options.

The Falcons host the 49ers and are the biggest favorite on the board this week at -14. Falcons should be able to do as they please on offense and hopefully, Julio will be back this week to add to the attack. SF will be playing catch-up but they seem to stick with Hyde no matter the score so he and Kaep are good bets for garbage time catch-up mode points. The over/under (O/U) of 51.5 is also the highest total this week, so Vegas is anticipating 32 points out of the Falcons, which is pretty nuts, so get all of your dirty birds in your lineups.

Carolina visits Washington with an O/U of 51 on Monday Night Football. With a projected 51 points to go around Monday night, no lead will be safe after Sunday. The ‘Skins are playing well, have a lot of talent all over the offense so it’s hard to single out one guy. Why try, play them all, especially versus a terrible Panthers’ secondary. Panthers have had a tough go offensively this season and I’m not sure the current regime is going to solve that anytime soon.

An AFC West showdown between the Raiders and Chargers in San Diego is also projected at 50.5, with Oakland favored by only 3, so expect a high scoring back-and-forth shootout in southern California. All the usual suspects are in play in this one.

Looking at the flip side of the above contests, a few games jump off the page as games to avoid. In the Thursday night game, the Rams visit the Seahawks with a total of 38.5, with the Seahawks sitting as 16 point favorites. A quick numbers crunch reveals that the Seattle is expected to win 27 to 11… I’ve been playing fantasy for nearly 20 years and have been gambling on football even longer, I cannot remember a team ever being projected to score only 11 points. No Rams are playable except under the most dire circumstances.

In what might be one of the least watchable contests this week, the QB-less Dolphins visit the essentially QB-less Jets with an O/U of 38. Expect a lot of running from both sides given their current QB situations. Outside of Ajayi & Powell, nobody has much value in this one. I’d steer clear if you can.

2 more yuck-fests this weekend for totally different reasons are the Packers at the Bears and Jacksonville at Houston. They both have an O/U right around 40. The Bears/Packer’s contest, mostly due to weather as the game progresses is expected to be played in awful weather with a forecasted high of Zero degrees. Yes, that’s the high. In case you’re curious, the low is supposed to be -16. On the other hand, the terrible Jaguars visit the mediocre Texans in an unexciting AFC South match-up featuring 2 of the most boring, underperforming teams in the NFL. Outside of either defense here, don’t expect much fantasy production from either team.

Featured Starts:

Quarterback: Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders- Carr is 7th among QBs in fantasy points. In real football, he is 5th in passing attempts, 8th in yards passing and 8th in TDs. Not too shabby for the youngster. In dynasty, Carr has cemented himself as a franchise guy and nearly an every-week-start. The Chargers defense has played well; they are very opportunistic, boasting a top-10 defensive efficiency rating and top-10 versus the pass. Still, I think this week offers a good opportunity for Carr, and just one reason will be his passing to keep pace with Philip Rivers. This is the time of year when domes can be good mojo for QBs and kickers. However, the Chargers don’t need a dome to contribute to fantasy points, since San Diego sports some of the best weather in the USA! Start the Carr. – Jeremy Browand @DFF_Madman

Running back: Tevin Coleman, Atlanta Falcons– Coleman totaled 19 fantasy points off of 10 touches against the Rams. He has the best match-up a running back could ask for this week. Not only do the 49ers give up an absurd amount of fantasy points to RBs they’re one of the worst defenses at covering RBs catching passes out of the backfield. They have allowed a league-high 19 touchdowns on the ground this season. I will be starting Coleman in two Semifinals match-ups this week and I feel very confident in doing so. – Lawrence Chaney @pacificscouting

Wide Receiver: DeSean Jackson, Washington Redskins- The embodiment of a boom or bust WR has managed to shake off the ‘bust’ part of that moniker with a string of great performances lately. He’s scored a touchdown in three of the past four games and has 100 yards or more in two of those games. Even the week he didn’t score (Week 13 at the Cardinals), Cousins still found him downfield for a 59-yard completion, in which Jackson was tackled at the 5-yard line. Cousins and Jackson could easily hook up for one or more deep balls this week. Carolina has given up 27 receptions of 25+ yards this season (T-7th most in the league, per sportingcharts.com). – Eric Iannaccone @pprranks

Tight End:  Ben Koyack, Jacksonville Jaguars- This is most likely a flyer for those facing injuries at the tight end position. Koyack should do well, as he goes up against a defense in Houston which has been up and down when facing opposing tight ends. Just five weeks prior they gave up 12 receptions and a touchdown to the Jaguars tight end trio. Look at starting Koyack over guys like Gates, Fleener, and Vernon Davis this week as a high ceiling play.  – Shaun Crandall @WhiskeyD0G

Defense/Special Teams: Buffalo Bills- At home, more importantly- facing an awful Cleveland Browns team on the road- the Bills defense should feast on whoever the Browns decide to make their quarterback of the week. Add on top of that the rumors of Rex Ryan getting fired (say what will you will about his coaching but you’ll never hear anything from players except that they love the guy) and this team is going to come to play for Rex this weekend. – John DiBari @dibari22

 

IDP Starts: courtesy of our very own J.T. Maynard @FatAdamSchefter

LB – Jamie Collins, Cleveland Browns – He went off last week and I really don’t see it getting any easier for my Browns. This means, Collins has more fantasy value than he has ever had. Start him!

Last Week:  Nick Kwiatkoski, Chicago Bears. 16 points (Solid)

DB – Jaquiski Tartt, San Francisco 49ers – If Eric Reid is still injured, then start Tartt with confidence. When & if this kid can hang in the passing game, LOOK OUT!

Last Week: Sean Davis, Pittsburgh Steelers. 21 points (Semi-Exceptional)

DL – DeForest Buckner, San Francisco 49ers – He has had 3 games with 8 plus tackles. I think he is coming into his own at the end of the year. I was a Buckner doubter, let’s see if he can continue to prove me wrong.

Last Week: Akiem Hicks, Chicago Bears. 23 points (Exceptional!)

Wildcard – LB Denzel Perryman, San Diego Chargers – He has been healthy and consistent the last 3 weeks. I’m going out on a limb here to a point but start him at home against the Raiders stout offense.   

Last Week: DT Sheldon Rankins, New Orleans Saints. 3 points (Bust, but with vast potential in the future)

*My MFL IDP league records: 9-4 (On a bye) 9-4 (On a bye). The two leagues I made the wild card in I lost in. The last two leagues I’m in are coming off a first round bye, but with many injuries and terrible matchups I really hope I can pull out at least one win! Hope you all fair better than me and reach your league’s championship rounds!!!! Seems like all the people I help are doing better than me, HA!! So please if you need any IDP advice, hit me up! GOOD LUCK, and May the Fantasy Football Gods bless you!!!

JT will be on Twitter before the 1 pm est. Sunday games if you have any questions about your IDP lineups, hit him up @FatAdamSchefter

Featured Sits:

Quarterback: Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams – Thursday night, on a short week, the rookie and franchise messiah travels to Seattle. I don’t like the odds working against the entire Rams offense against the Seahawks. Seattle is playing good football and they make it tough for their opponents to rack up a lot of points on them at home. While the Seahawks D is not doing as well versus the pass, sitting in the top-25 this season, they are in the top-6 in defensive efficiency. Combined with an inexperienced rookie QB, the Rams are in flux with a head coaching dilemma and have been playing badly on both sides of the ball. One more incentive to sit Goff is the terrible NFL play in Thursday games. This week, I scoff at Goff. – Jeremy Browand @DFF_Madman

Running back: Frank Gore, Indianapolis Colts – Gore has had a sneaky good year for fantasy but in the playoffs, all bets are off. Minnesota ranks 7th against RBs this year and have only allowed 6 rushing touchdowns on the season. Gore is averaging 3.8 yards per carry and he will need to see a wealth of touches to make any noise this week. – Lawrence Chaney @pacificscouting

Wide Receiver: Malcolm Mitchell, New England Patriots – I am aboard the Mitchell hype train, and will be looking to purchase him in dynasty leagues. This week is a good week to sit him, though. On the road against Denver with a group of banged-up receiving options, I expect the Patriots to go at the Broncos the same way Oakland did – ground and pound. It has the makings of a Blount game to me, but even if they air it out, Mitchell will see match-ups against Aqib Talib, Chris Harris Jr, or Bradley Roby – not favorable for the rookie. – Eric Iannaccone @pprranks

Tight End:  Coby Fleener, New Orleans Saints – Fleener has been a bust and non-existent for most of the season. I don’t think this is the week we see any kind of breakout as he faces a Cardinals team which up until last week had not allowed a touchdown to the position. As we get closer to the off-season, a team with Fleener as its tight end should be looking to upgrade prior to the start of the 2017 season, so sitting Fleener should become commonplace. – Shaun Crandall @WhiskeyD0G

Defense/Special Teams:  Tampa Bay Buccaneers – On the road against the Cowboys who are coming off only their second loss of the season, I think the ‘Boys come to play this week and I don’t think anything the Bucs do on defense will stop any part of the Cowboys’ offense. They have better the better line and better skill position players. – John Di Bari @dibari22

Staff Starts:

Jeremy Browand: @DFF_Madman

Running Back: LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills

Wide Receiver: Sammy Watkins, Buffalo Bills

Tight End: Ladarius Green, Pittsburgh Steelers

Team Defense: Atlanta Falcons

Lawrence Chaney: @pacificscouting

Quarterback: Eli Manning, New York Giants

Wide Receiver: Jamison Crowder, Washington Redskins

Tight End: Cameron Brate, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Team Defense: Baltimore Ravens

Eric Iannaccone: @pprranks

Quarterback: Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans

Running Back: LeGarrette Blount, New England Patriots

Tight End: Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans

Team Defense: New York Giants

Shaun Crandall: @WhiskeyD0G

Quarterback: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Running Back: Bilal Powell, New York Jets

Wide Receiver: Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders

Team Defense: Atlanta Falcons

John Di Bari: @dibari22

Quarterback: Sam Bradford, Minnesota Vikings

Running Back: Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers

Wide Receiver: Rishard Matthews, Tennessee Titans

Tight End: Ladarius Green, Pittsburgh Steelers

 

Staff Sits:

Jeremy Browand: @DFF_Madman

Running Back: Devonte Booker, Denver Broncos

Wide Receiver: Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals

Tight End: Jared Cook, Green Bay Packers

Team Defense: Los Angeles Rams

Lawrence Chaney: @pacificscouting

Quarterback: Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions

Wide Receiver: Golden Tate, Detroit Lions

Tight End: Dennis Pitta, Baltimore Ravens

Team Defense: Carolina Panthers

Eric Iannaccone: @pprranks

Quarterback: Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions

Running Back: fat Rob Kelley, Washington Redskins

Tight End: Coby Fleener, New Orleans Saints

Team Defense: Denver Broncos

Shaun Crandall: @WhiskeyD0G

Quarterback: Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers

Running Back: LeGarrette Blount, New England Patriots

Wide Receiver: Mike Thomas, New Orleans Saints

Team Defense: Pittsburgh Steelers

John Di Bari: @dibari22

Quarterback: Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions

Running Back: Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints

Wide Receiver: Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars

Tight End: Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans

 

Last week’s record:

We had a really good week 2 weeks ago, so a little regression to the mean was expected. Not ideal during the playoffs, but week 14 was pretty much a universal disappointment across the board. That said, throughout the season, we’ve pretty much bounced between good and ok, so I’m anticipating another solid week from us.Good luck in week 15 and throughout the playoffs if you’re still alive. Thank you for reading and thank you to our weekly team here at DFF; Jeremy, Lawrence, Eric, Shaun, Rick & JT. Please give them a follow on Twitter and feel free to interact with us regarding any of your fantasy questions. The season is almost over, only another week for most until it’s all over, so let’s get out there and win some fantasy championships!

 

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