I have a confession to make, I love Dynasty Fantasy Football trades far more than any person should. I’ve completed 54 Dynasty Fantasy Football trades over this past season across seven leagues, not including startup pick trades. These are home leagues, the kind of league we all start our Dynasty journey in. Nothing goes better with a warm cup of coffee than scouring your league, looking at potential deals to acquire a player you think the league is too low on. From blockbuster acquisitions to 3rd round liquidations. I’ve made deals that make me cry, and I’ve made deals that make me feel like the sharpest manager in the league. Sometimes I’ll smash a Dynasty trade just for the sweet serotonin of hitting the accept button. Trading is the greatest part of Dynasty Fantasy Football, and I want to help you get out of inbox negotiations and get you hitting that accept button.
Every week, fantasy football websites churn out weekly “Buy Low, Sell High Trade Target” articles, such as “Buy DeVonta Smith (WR-PHI) for a late first-round pick!”. I don’t know what league this deal is getting accepted in, but my league mates would laugh me out of the room; it would be rejected and sent back as soon as it was opened. We all think “I’d love to be in that league” when we see these one-sided trades.
Now, there is a benefit of shooting your trade offers out, because you never know what a manager will accept. But how do we navigate this Dynasty landscape to get trades accepted and have both parties walk away feeling that their team was helped? How do we look at an inbox trade and evaluate whether it helps our team and is a fair deal? We’ll break down the trade variables together, examine some small factors that help a trade get accepted, and how to evaluate a player’s value properly.
With Dynasty information becoming more accessible, it’s increasingly difficult to gain a competitive edge. If you constantly wait for the breakout of a player to be obvious to everyone, you’ll find yourself consistently chasing assets that managers refuse to trade. So, what’s the next step? We need to be traders in this stock market that Dynasty Fantasy Football has become. Understanding the trade process, timing our trades, thorough player valuation, and the art of negotiating. This will help us get the deals done first, to acquire the players we think will rise in value BEFORE they fully breakout and become unacquirable assets.
We’ll lay out trade variables and the valuation process of players and learn together how to break down trade offers that benefit our fantasy teams. Future trade breakdowns will reference these concepts in a series reviewing real dynasty trades. No “sell for pick 2.03” advice; this will be actual roster examination, league scoring review, and an honest look at if your team is a contender or pretender.
Trade Variables
Let’s break down a few different factors of what goes into evaluating a trade. Contending status, league scoring, league starting roster size, league mate valuations, and timing all differ across each league and factor hugely into a trade evaluation. Let’s delve into the trade variables so that we all are using the same definitions for breaking down a trade. If you tell a man what side of a trade to take you help him once. If you learn how to break down the trade into its parts and values, you’re prepared for a lifetime.
Contending Status
Take an honest look at your roster. Does your team have the pieces not just to make it into the 6th seed, but to get a bye and push for a championship? This helps us understand the full value of our draft picks. Is your season going to end with the 1.06 pick in the draft or the ultimate goal of the 1.12? Not only does this change the value of older players for our team, but it also drastically changes the value of our draft pick.
Let’s say barring injury you know your pick is likely going to end in the latter half of the first round, but your league mates might not know yet. If you send off your 1st for an asset early in the season, you might acquire more for your pick than if you try to trade it later in the season when the league might have identified your team as a contender. Inversely, if your roster is looking shaky, you need to have your pick. There is nothing less satisfying than a losing season without owning your first-round pick.
League Scoring
This is how your league dishes out points. Are you in a 0.5 PPR, 1 PPR, 0.25 Point Per Carry, Tight End Premium? Do you have crazy bonuses for first downs and 60-yard touchdowns? Are you in an IDP league? These different scoring rules drastically change the value of players. Tight End Premium is becoming more and more popular, some managers will fully punt the tight end position in any league that isn’t 2.00 TEP. Full 1.0 PPR can make players like Josh Downs worth significantly more when they have a six-catch game for 45 yards. Understanding your league scoring and how it impacts player values is pivotal to evaluating any trade offer.
Number of Teams and Starting Roster Size
More teams mean more competition for players and often require deeper benches to stay competitive. A 12-team league with a Start 10 Roster size has 120 players starting each week, as opposed to a 10-team Start 9 league, which will have 90 starting players each week. Justin Jefferson‘s (WR-MIN) value in a 10 Team Start 9 is significantly more than a 12 Team Start 11. This, combined with league scoring, form the backbone of quantifying our trades. The smaller starting roster size, the more value top end players gain.
Leaguemates Valuations
Every league is different; my home leagues personally hold onto quarterbacks with a death grip. It’s nearly impossible to move a top 7 QB. The trade package to acquire one would have to be overwhelming for Jalen Hurts(QB-PHI) to be traded. In other leagues, I’ve seen Josh Allen (QB – BUF) traded three times in one startup draft and pre-season cycle. You have to know your league mates and what they value. Who loves shiny new drafted WRs, who will fall in love during the draft season and want to take the 1.10 dice roll for a solid veteran player? Does your league value 2nd round draft picks? Some leagues will ship off quality players for a 2.03, while others will laugh at you and decline. Knowing these league-wide values is essential to getting a deal done.
Timing & Leverage
Dynasty leagues run on a cycle. Draft picks are at their lowest value point at the start of the season. Managers want players who are going to score points when games are being played.
As the season progresses, around Week 9, the draft pick value slowly increases, and as few managers begin to realize that this isn’t their year, they start to shop for 1sts.
We hit Week 13, and suddenly, there is an arms race; deals are flying left and right as aging players are sent off to competing teams for draft compensation or younger hopeful prospects. Top-seeded teams who lost Joe Burrow(QB-CIN) in Week 11 last year were sending him away for tiered-down QBs and draft compensation. A previously untouchable QB is now available. This is where leverage comes into play; this team needs a QB now and has the urgency with playoffs coming to get a deal done. Don’t mistake leverage for holding someone hostage; think of it as the window opening for a deal getting done. We, above all, play this game for fun, and while we want to “win” our trades, the best way to get future trades done is for your league to see you as a reasonable and enjoyable trade partner.
Finally, our season ends, and our champion is crowned. Leagues across the world look forward to our favorite time and the reason we play Dynasty Fantasy Football: draft season. Picks are at their all-time value on the day of the draft. Nothing releases that sweet serotonin like smashing the draft button on your coveted prospect and opening the mystery box of rookies. Your pick might turn out to be C.J. Stroud(QB-HOU), or it might be Bryce Young(QB-CAR). This brings us to our final valuation tool.
Risk vs. Reward
We need to weigh the possible outcomes for the players in our trades. We’ll use Anthony Richardson (QB-IND) as our example. Currently going in the first round of startups, he is an exciting rookie with game-breaking potential. However, he’s only finished two games in his short NFL career. Here is a player with QB1 upside; he also comes with a fair amount of risk. Did you see enough to convince yourself that he can stay healthy? Each manager has their own risk tolerance; some managers play to win, swing for the fence, and take draft picks for upside. Others play it safer; there are plenty of ways to win a championship, and most likely, a balanced approach is best. But you have to decide for yourself what your risk tolerance is for each player in your trades.
Negotiating Manners
This is a simple one; the negotiating process should be fun, and your leaguemates should enjoy trade conversations with you. When you present yourself as a reasonable trade partner, you’ll become a go-to person in your league for trades and get more deals done in the future. We all have the managers in our leagues who send you the 3.08 for a locked-in every-week starter. Don’t be that guy; that guy doesn’t get deals done.
When you send a trade inquiry, you’re indicating interest in a player. Don’t then spend five minutes discussing why that player you’re trying to acquire is no good and you’re doing the other manager a favor by taking them off their hands. It’s silly, never works, and leaves a bad impression on future negotiations.
Instead, look at what that team needs. Are they short at WR and strong at RB as you try to acquire James Conner (RB-ARI) for one last season? Lead off with what you’re trying to acquire so they know what you want. “I see you have a ton of RB depth; I’m looking to send a WR piece for an RB if you’re open to moving one.”
This helps build a trade idea in each manager’s mind, and from there, we can build an outline of a trade offer that has a chance of being accepted. Shooting out lowball offers of 1.11 for Devonta Smith (WR-PHI) does nothing but have people open their app and become disappointed once they see it as a disappointing offer. When league-wide avalanche wins of trades go down in leagues, it does nothing but sour the sentiment of the league.
Hope you enjoyed the article! Thanks for reading, if you’d like a completed trade breakdown, please DM your trades at @DynastyTradeReviewHQ. Keep grinding those trade lines! #DFF Army #AlwaysBeBuilding
