Carnell Tate

fernando mendoza

Dynasty Data Trendz: Week 5

Dynasty / By /

Fantasy point production is not always the best predictor of future fantasy point production. One blown coverage or short touchdown can instantly make a player’s otherwise pedestrian week look great for fantasy..

This is where usage trends come in. A player’s usage is a better predictor of what kind of future fantasy production we should expect. You can use this to target Dynasty owners who may be otherwise disenchanted with a low macro fantasy output, while you know the underlying factors are healthy. On the other hand, you can also utilize usage trends to see which players may have a concerning trend relative to their historical valuation that you may want to consider trading.

*Data Sources: DFF Data Factory, PFF, Fantasy Pros, NFL Pro, Next Gen Stats*

Run your own custom reports in the DFF Data Factory within the Control Room app. Receiving yards per team pass attempt is a good way to measure a player’s efficiency within their offense.  The above chart lists the top eight in RYPTPA.

1. Zay Flowers is a player I am aggressively targeting in trade offers. He is WR11 in Dynasty Community value on Keep Trade Cut. He will cost you about a mid-first. But he is still obtainable because he has played most of this season injured. His Dynasty managers haven’t seen the end result of huge fantasy points, but in reality he is producing that way in his limited time. You can see in the chart above he is even out-producing the far more expensive Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The newest factor depressing his fantasy value is the absence of Lamar Jackson. This makes the trade window wide open.  Fire out some offers this week before it is too late.

2. Similarly, Drake London has been electric since the return of Michael Penix. He has nearly doubled his target share and fantasy points per game since Penix took over the reins. 

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denzel boston

Dynasty Rookie Round-Up: Week 4

All Access, Dynasty / By /

In this series, I’ll spotlight the standout performances from the 2026 rookie class and highlight both promising and concerning trends. Let’s dive into how these rookies fared in Week 4.

Quarterback
Stock Up

Jalon Daniels: He started in Week 4 for Baker Mayfield, who was injured the week before. He completed 19 out of his 27 pass attempts (70%) for 148 yards. He threw for a touchdown but also threw 2 interceptions. His QBR was 49.7. He rushed eight times for 55 yards, so he does offer the rushing side if you need a quarterback to start because of bye weeks or injuries. He plays Dallas on Thursday night, so he should be able to score some points with their defense not being great.

Stock Down

Athan Kaliakmanis: Made his debut when Marcus Mariota got injured. He completed 15 out of his 33 pass attempts (45%) for 186 yards. He threw for a touchdown but also threw 1 interception. He rushed three times for 16 yards. His QBR was 20.7. He did not look great, but he was prepared to be the backup all week. It’s unclear who will start Week 5 for Washington, so he is a name to look for on the waiver wire if you are desperate for a quarterback.

Jack Strand: Made his debut when the Falcons were getting crushed in Week 1. He played 42% of the snaps. He completed eight of 15 passes for 59 yards and added two rushes for 16 yards. No new playing time since Week 1.

Running Back

Week 4 was relatively quiet for rookie running backs, which was expected. Nevertheless, a few trends are worth noting.

Stock Up (Above 40% of team carries)

Jeremiyah Love: In Weeks 1-4, he has had 55 carries for 223 yards, a touchdown, and 13 catches for 36 yards and a touchdown. Week 4, he played 45% of the snaps, which was down from Week 3 when he played 64%. His carry percentage also went down for the first time this season from 91% in Week 3 to 69% in Week 4. However, the drop in usage was just due to Love suffering a minor ankle injury in-game. His window to buy is probably closed.

Stock Down (Below 40% of team carries)

Emmett Johnson: In Weeks 1-4, he had 16 carries for 56 yards and five catches for 74 yards, playing on 36% of the snaps. In Weeks 1 and 3, they got up big. Week 2 was a tight game, and he did not play as much, and that was the case again in Week 4. Clear backup and handcuff to Kenneth Walker.

Kaelon Black: In Weeks 1-4, he has had 31 carries for 120 yards, and one catch for 5 yards. Week 4, he played 26% of the snaps, which was up from Week 3 when he played 15%. His carry percentage went up slightly from 21% in Week 3 to 29% in Week 4. He is the clear backup and handcuff to Christian McCaffrey.

Mike Washington: In Weeks 1-4, he has had 24 carries for 120 yards, a touchdown, and one catch for -1 yard. Week 4, he played 21% of the snaps, which was up slightly from Week 3 when he played 16%. His carry percentage also went up from 21% in Week 3 to 35% in Week 4. Clear backup and handcuff to Ashton Jeanty.

Kaytron Allen: In Weeks 1-4, he has had 12 carries for 41 yards. Week 4, he played 19% of the snaps, which was his season high so far this season. He had 3 carries in Week 4, which was 17% of the carries.

Nick Singleton: He did not play at all in Week 1. In Weeks 2-4, he has had seven carries for 12 yards. Week 4, he played 13% of the snaps, which was his season high. His carry percentage was 14% in Week 4.

Seth McGowan: In Weeks 1-4, he had 12 carries for 45 yards, and two catches for 7 yards. His snap percentage has gone up each week up to 29%. His carry percentage has gone up each week so far this season, up to 23% in Week 4. He is the clear backup and handcuff to Jonathan Taylor.

Demond Claiborne: In Weeks 1-4, he has had six carries for 13 yards, and one catch for 2 yards. Week 4, he played (12%) of the snaps, which was his season high. His carry percentage was 13% in Week 4.

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Hammer's Hammer

Hammer’s DFS Hammers: NFL Week 5

All Access, Strategy Content / By /

Welcome to Week 5, which is one of my favorite weeks. Why? We now have four weeks of proof points and data to paint a picture of who a team is, and what players’ roles are becoming. It’s an opportunity to start forming conclusions based on this season rather than heavily relying on data from last year and the summer. That said, it’s shaped up as quite a strange main slate for Sunday. There aren’t many games that scream for points to be scored, and there also aren’t many QB spots that stand out. However, I do see some hidden opportunity in some of the matchups, especially those with smaller totals that some might overlook for DFS. There is also a higher point total game that I will be building my own lineups around.

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Cam Ward

4 Biggest Dynasty Story Lines Heading into Week 1

Dynasty / By /

Welcome to a new weekly column where I run through the biggest Dynasty storylines week to week. We’re going to cover a lot of different angles over the next 18 weeks. It won’t always be pretty. But, by God, we have missed it. Without further ado, let’s dive in. 

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De'Zhaun Stribling

Rookie Report Ahead Into Preseason Week 2

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

De’Zhaun Stribling (WR – 49ers)

Did the 49ers just fast-track their rookie wideout for a sizeable role right out of the gate? Sure seems that way. The No. 33 overall selection looked awesome in his first game action, catching seven of eight targets for 63 yards. Stribling played mostly in the slot and consistently moved the chains for the offense. He also showed his contested-catch ability on a deep ball down the sideline, hauling it in with a defender draped all over him. He won in a variety of ways, something you love to see out of a young wideout. With Ricky Pearsall out for the season, Stribling could be featured heavily opposite Mike Evans. At this rate, he will crack the top-100 in Dynasty ranking in no time and could be a weekly WR3/FLEX option in what should be an explosive San Francisco offense. 

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loveland

Building My Dynasty: A Full Startup Draft Breakdown

Dynasty / By /

In today’s article, I’m breaking down my most recent dynasty startup draft, covering everything from my draft strategy to player values and roster construction. The goal is to leave you with a few ideas you can take into your own startup drafts this offseason. In this particular draft, I was able to construct a team I believe can compete in Year 1 while being built for long-term dominance. With the help of the DFF Dynasty Control Room, I was able to maximize value by reviewing consensus big boards and checking “top players available” with every pick. According to DFF consensus, it paid off, as I finished with the best draft class in the league.

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stribling

“Colossus” 2026 Final Rookie WR1 Analytical Model Rankings

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

The Prospect Analytical Model Rankings are one of our members’ favorite series each year at Dynasty Football Factory. Years of refining and enhancing the models to accurately predict future fantasy value have brought us to today. 

This article covers the final post-NFL Draft analytical model rankings for the wide receiver position. These WR1 model rankings will be your ultimate guide to predicting which prospects will produce the most fantasy points in their NFL career.

You can find the running back RB1 model here.

For those new to the WR1 rating, it is a proprietary formula I developed in 2019 that provides a data-driven forecast of future fantasy production for incoming rookie wide receivers. There are many advanced metrics available today; we at DFF know it can be difficult to determine which ones matter and how much each matters. The WR1 model distills all that hard work into a single, easy-to-understand number. The model evaluates rookies across 13 of the most predictive metrics and combines their individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating. It was a pioneer in the fantasy analysis industry, being the first to incorporate a film-grade into the model. The goal is to provide an easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend hundreds of hours dissecting different metrics. Based on the prospect’s model score, I provide their probability of achieving at least one top-24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season, using historical prospects with similar score ranges.

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Carnell Tate

2026 NFL Draft Coverage: Carnell Tate

All Access, Dynasty, Rookie / By /

Carnell Tate was a 3-year player for The Ohio State Buckeyes and was a starter in both 2024 and 2025. He steadily improved his production with each passing season. His freshman season saw him catch 18 passes for 264 yards and 1 touchdown. His most productive season came as a senior, where he caught 51 balls for 875 yards and 9 touchdowns. He played alongside multiple highly-touted receivers throughout his time at Ohio State, including Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith, which meant that he was never the primary target for the Buckeyes. Even still, it should be noted that he managed to produce great numbers despite being the team’s secondary target which could indicate that he can take on a larger role at the next level.

FILM

Carnell Tate might be the most fluid mover at the wide receiver position in this draft class. He is not an elite athlete, nor is he going to blow you away with speed, but he is an extremely polished route runner and technically sound receiver who wins with body control, precision and an adept understanding of the opposing defensive coverages. He has a knack for winning 50/50 scenarios and will allow his quarterback to trust him even if he isn’t creating obvious separation. His game at the next level will largely be predicated on scheme. If he is deployed on the outside to win deep or is asked to win consistently against press coverage he will struggle. His strengths are in finding the soft spots in zone coverages and in the short and intermediate sections of the field. 

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Denzel Boston

2026 Rookie WR1 Analytical Model, Version 1.0: Rankings 5 to 1

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

The Prospect Analytical Model Rankings are one of our members’ favorite series each year at Dynasty Football Factory. Years of refining and enhancing the models to accurately predict future fantasy value have brought us to today.  These WR1 model rankings are your ultimate guide to predicting which prospects will produce the most fantasy points in their NFL career.  You can find the wide receivers ranked 15 to 11 in the WR1 model here. You can find the wide receivers ranked 10 to 6 here. You can find the running back RB1 model here. For those new to the WR1 rating, it is a proprietary formula I developed in 2019 that provides a data-driven forecast of future fantasy production for incoming rookie wide receivers. There are many advanced metrics available today; we at DFF know it can be difficult to determine which ones matter and how much each matters. The WR1 model distills all that hard work into a single, easy-to-understand number. The model evaluates rookies across 13 of the most predictive metrics and combines their individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating. It was a pioneer in the fantasy analysis industry, being the first to incorporate a film-grade into the model. The goal is to provide an easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend hundreds of hours dissecting different metrics. Based on the prospect’s model score, I provide their probability of achieving at least one top-24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season, using historical prospects with similar score ranges. The WR1 model consistently outperforms NFL draft capital […]

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Carnell Tate

What to Do After 1.01 and 1.02 in 2026 Superflex Rookie Drafts

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

In 2026 rookie drafts, Jeremiyah Love is the clear 1.01, and Fernando Mendoza sits right behind him at 1.02 in Superflex, PPR, and Tight End Premium formats. After those two, my next pick starts with Carnell Tate, then Makai Lemon, then Kenyon Sadiq, and then Jordyn Tyson. That order comes down to a mix of safety, upside, positional value, and how clean the path feels to early fantasy relevance. Tate is the safest wide receiver in the group. Lemon brings the most explosive upside. Sadiq gets a real bump in tight end premium because the athletic ceiling is different at that position. Tyson has the talent, but the risk profile is heavier than the other three.

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George Pickens

Dynasty Buy and Sell: Week 12 (Trades)

Dynasty / By /

This week, I continue the theme as the trade deadline draws even closer. Most leagues wrapped up trading on November 17, so I had to make the right calls quickly before the window closed. This is the stretch of the season when smart managers start shaping their roster for both the playoff push and the long game. Every move matters right now, and the best trades are usually the ones you make before everyone else sees them coming. I’ve been rebuilding my Dynasty roster while staying competitive in my C2C leagues, making sure every move lines up with where I want my teams to be. My goal is always to help you spot value, think ahead, and make confident decisions in your own leagues. Light up that cigar, pour yourself a bourbon, and let’s dive into this week’s trades. Win Now, Brag Later.

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