TPC Southwind is the home of the FedEx St. Jude Classic again this year. It’s a Par 70 that plays around 7,200 yards. The average green size is just a bit over 5,000 square feet which means they’re smaller than the average we typically see on tour. These greens are hard to hit, the fairways are hard to hit, and the temperature will be in the 90s in Memphis this week. If that wasn’t enough, the golfers also have to contend with 94 bunkers and 10 water hazards as they make their way around the track. You can see my Course preview and key stats article for this week here.
It’s going to be a shorter article this week thanks to all the WDs, but get ready next week for a beefed up article as the Tour heads to Shinnecock for the US Open.
Top End Golfers ($8,500+)
As the WDs start pouring in, the field is getting weaker and weaker. Whether you are looking for a reasonable price, upside, or a safe pick, Tony Finau ($9,300) fits the bill. He’s 6th in DK points over his past 24 rounds. Finau has made 12 starts this year and missed just two cuts. Even when he isn’t scoring his best from a pure golf perspective, he has the ability to string together birdies.
If you can find the money, Dustin Johnson ($11,700) is an excellent play. He is in the midst of an overwhelming “slump” that has seen him do nothing but post Top 20s so far this season. He’s one of the top two or three golfers in the world in an extremely weak field, so play DJ if you can.
Phil Mickelson ($10,600) is where I’m starting many of my lineups this week. Over the past 24 rounds, Mickelson is 1st in DK Points. With the exception of his blow-up at TPC Sawgrass, he’s been great this season having posted five Top 10s in his past ten events.
If you’re risk averse and want a safe option for cash, you could do worse than Charles Howell III ($8,600). He’s 7th in Strokes Gained: Total of his past 24 rounds.
Low-End Golfers (Sub – $8,500)
Luke List ($8,300) is a golfer who has immense upside that isn’t tied to his real-life golf performance. In the past ten events, List has the lowest correlation of this range between his finish position and his Total DK Points. He’s 2nd in DK Points over his past 24 rounds and with all of the withdrawals coming in the field is weakening by the minute.
When we get weak fields, the cream usually rises to the top. Most of the time that means that we see golfers with better pedigree grinding it out and performing well relative to the field. This week, that guy might be Brandt Snedeker ($7,600). For starters, he is a bit of a misprice down here with the other $7,000 golfers, in my opinion. If you’re a narrative believer, he’s a Tennessee guy and could make some noise in this field.
Joel Dahmen ($7,100) is getting super popular this year. He’s 9th in Strokes Gained: total over his past 24 rounds. For $7,100, I think it makes sense, but I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if he were packing his bags Friday night either. Dahmen is a GPP only play for me.
A balanced approach would make the most sense this week given the opportunity cost of drafting one of the top five guys in salary. But, if you need to dive down into the $6,000 range, there are a couple of options as GPP sprinkles. Sam Saunders ($6,800) comes in on the back of a few missed cuts, but he can get hot on a Thursday and make the cut for you at this price. Tom Lovelady ($6,900) is another guy who has some cut equity. He’s made 6-of-8 cuts recently, with a Top 5 in the weak field at Corales.