We’ve all made irrational, biased and short-sighted decisions in Dynasty. That’s what makes this game we play so much fun. But to be successful, we have to learn from those mistakes and capitalize when others continue to make them. This article is intended to shine a light on the Worst Dynasty Mistakes an owner can make in hopes of saving some of you from yourself.
Shiny New Toy
The NFL Draft is set to take place in a few short months, and Dynasty Rookie Draft twitter is already abuzz. I mean did you see how big D.K. Metcalf is?!
We need to stop overvaluing these rookies simply because they are new. The “way too early” rankings will change post combine and again post NFL draft yet rookie picks are still being valued far too high for my liking. The following is an actual trade that occurred in one of my dynasty leagues with the corresponding DTC Total Trade Value in parentheses.
DeAndre Hopkins (50.8) for 2019-2, 2019-4 & 2019-9 (52.0)
Three first round picks seems to be the going rate for premium players, but Hopkins is widely considered the Top WR asset in dynasty football. For that trade to work out for the owner getting the picks he needs to “hit” on at least two of those first round picks in what is widely considered a down draft year.
For posterity sake, let’s look at The Dynasty Football Factory Rookie ADP for those picks in 2017 and 2018 Rookie Drafts using their May ADP (which is when most rookie drafts take place).
The running backs make both draft lists look somewhat palatable, but there’s no lock top 10 dynasty asset in the bunch (Mixon is for me but not for most and Chubb is Top 20 at present).
I would be hard-pressed to trade Hopkins for either of those years picks even in a rebuild especially because each running backs peak years will be wasted by the time I can compete again.
A package with say 2019-2, 2019-4 and a 2020 1st might pry NUK away from me in a full rebuild. Might!
Known > New aka Don’t Buy Upside
A much simpler but tried and true philosophy of mine is “known > new”. Dynasty owners place such a premium on player age and/or peak performance years for the position that they prematurely devalue their veteran assets. There’s realized value in veterans, and a known commodity can be a difference maker in your championship run.
Here are some veteran players (age) that I would be interested in buying for the right price: Devonta Freeman (26), Paul Richardson (26), Albert Wilson (26), Tyrell Williams (27), Tyler Eifert (28), Alshon Jeffery (29), AJ Green (30), Julian Edelman (32), Larry Fitzgerald (35).
Don’t Be A Bored Trader
We are officially in the dynasty dark days between the end of the 2018 NFL season and the 2019 NFL Draft which to me signifies the kickoff of the 2019 fantasy season. It’s a boring time of year. Trading is fun. But I caution anyone from hyper-actively making trades to take a second to evaluate the current and future value of the picks and players.
For reference sake, the following indicate Dynasty Football Factory May Rookie ADP for their respective draft year.
Kareem Hunt 1.10
Alvin Kamara 1.11
Kenny Golladay 3.08
Aaron Jones 4.04
Kerryon Johnson 2.02
Dante Pettis 4.07
Keke Coutee 5.05
2nd, 3rd and even 4th rounds picks can have value for an informed dynasty owner.
Buy the Dip (shoutout to my boy @DFFMemphis)
It only takes one disheartened dynasty owner to sour on a player that you are high on. Recent news of Kareem Hunt signing with the Cleveland Browns may have opened a brief buy the dip window for Nick Chubb. Hunt’s deal is for one year, and he is in all likelihood facing a 6+ week suspension to begin the 2019 season. I don’t foresee Hunt crushing Chubb’s 2019 value as some have indicated on Twitter and would be willing to part with any 2019 draft pick and a known commodity to acquire him in a heartbeat.
Other “Buy The Dip” players include: Leonard Fournette RB17, the aforementioned Kareem Hunt RB24, Jerick McKinnon RB29, A.J. Green WR13
Positional Rankings are from FantasyPros Dynasty ECR (PPR)
It’s much easier to blow something up then it is to build it so take calculated risks but always be evaluating. Regardless, make sure to leverage the collective content at the Dynasty Football Factory.
Feel free to give me a follow on Twitter @DFF_Walk.