DFS: Jones | Valspar Championship Picks

The PGA Tour is making a stop at Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead course, as it comes back to Florida after a week abroad in Mexico. Copperhead is a Par 71 course that plays around 7,300 yards on average. The course features over 70 bunkers and 8 separate water hazards, so there’s definitely trouble that needs to be avoided if golfers are going to find some success here. It’s a relatively weak field with just two of the Top 10 OWGR players, but the presence of Tiger Woods is going to mean that there are plenty of viewers this week. Luckily for us, that also means some extra “public” money on DraftKings.


Key Stats:
DraftKings Points
Strokes Gained: Approach
Proximity from 175 Yards+
Par 3 Efficiency (200-225 Yards)
Greens in Regulation Gained


Expensive Golfers ($10,000 and Up)

Complaining about Jordan Spieth’s ($11,800) play is a bit like when redraft folks start complaining about Julio Jones. Since the start of 2017, Spieth has made thirty starts and finished in the Top 10 fifteen times. His last three starts have resulted in T20, T9, and T14 finishes. When his putter snaps back into form, he’s going to win a tournament again. He’s 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach over his past 36 rounds, according to Fantasy National. The sky isn’t falling, stop worrying about Spieth.

I’m not a Sergio Garcia ($10,900) fan. He makes a ton of sense this week though. Garcia is an elite ball-striker and has shown that he can play well on second shot courses. Over the past eight rounds, Garcia is 2nd in DraftKings points and Strokes Gained: Approach. He certainly would be a difficult fade.

Fade: Henrik Stenson ($10,200) is a guy who I never play and will continue to do so until he proves me wrong. He hasn’t done much since his victory at the Wyndham, and we haven’t seen him play in about a month.


Mid-Range Golfers ($10,000 – $8,000)

Cameron Smith ($8,000) is my favorite play in this range, and possibly of the week. I’ll be throwing him in as my One And Done this week. Smith doesn’t necessarily “wow” you off the tee, he’s 76th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee over the past 36 rounds. When it comes to all of the other facets of the game, though, he’s been impressive. In that same timeframe, he’s 18th in DraftKings Points. Over the past twelve rounds, he’s been incredible from everywhere but the tee box.

Despite a bit of a Sunday fade, Tony Finau ($9,400) played well in Mexico. He’s played well for a long time and isn’t showing any signs of stopping. Finau has made 21-of-22 cuts with the lone exception being a blemish in Phoenix a few weeks ago. He is at least Top 10 in DraftKings Points, Greens in Regulation Gained, and Strokes Gained: Approach over the past 24 rounds. I’ll take that at $9,400 all day long.

Fade: I’m going to be underweight on Adam Scott ($8,700). Yes, he performed well at the Honda Classic (13), but I’d like to see him do it again this week to get fully back on him.


Value Golfers ($8,000 – $7,000)

Chesson Hadley ($7,400) is interesting this week. After missing the cut at the Honda Classic a few weeks ago while sitting over 50% ownership in cash games, it’ll be interesting to see how his ownership numbers shake out this week. Either way, he’s back in play for me this week. Hadley lost 6 strokes around the green at Honda- which is almost unimaginable. That resulted in him hitting a 3rd percentile outcome at PGA National, and I think he bounces back in a big way this week.

It may sound outrageous, but 51-year-old Steve Stricker ($7,500) is one of my favorite plays of the week. He just won the Champions Tour event this past week, so he’s obviously playing well. Stricker is just a few weeks removed from a 26th place finish at Pebble Beach. It’s tough to beat his cut equity at this price point.

Fade: I’m going to fade Chez Reavie ($7,900) this week despite his recent form. Reavie has put together two rough events back-to-back and looks to need some time off to recharge and get his game back together.


Cheap Dart Throw (Sub – $7,000)

If I have to throw someone in at this range, it would be Aaron Wise ($6,900). Wise is in the top ten in Proximity from 175-200 Yards and 13th in DK Points, over the past 24 rounds. I’d still be limiting my exposure in this range. Full disclosure, I don’t envision myself having much exposure below $7,000. A balanced approach seems like the way to go in this field.


I host a podcast called Bogey Free which can be found on iTunes or YouTube. I'm one of the PGA Analysts at DraftKings. On this site, you can find me talking Football Redraft or PGA DFS. Follow along on Twitter @MattJonesTFR to stay up to date.

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