Daily Sports Factory

DFS: Jones | AT&T Byron Nelson

Trinity Forest Golf Club is a Par 71 course that will play 7,380 yards this week. The course was designed with “many of the greatest old courses of the Northeast and Great Britain” in mind. Trinity Forest features wide fairways outlined by tall, native grasses to go along with “dramatic” bunkering and green complexes. The design puts an emphasis on smart course management. It also has a strain of grass for the fairways, tees, and rough that golfers aren’t used to playing on which is aptly named “Trinity Zoysia”.
As we see with most weeks after big events, this field isn’t the strongest we’ll see all year. There are just seven golfers in the Top 50 OWGR that will be making the start this week, with only two of them in the Top 10 (Jordan Spieth and Hideki Matsuyama). Even when you look at this year’s FedEx Cup standings, the cupboard is pretty bare. There are just 2 of the current Top 30 in the 2018 FedEx Cup Standings. It seems like an opportunity for some lower-priced golfers to find their way towards the top of the leaderboard.

Key Stats:
Strokes Gained: Approach
DK Points
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Scrambling/SG: Around the Green
3 Putt Avoidance

Expensive Golfers ($9,500+)

Since missing the cut at this event last year, Jordan Spieth ($11,900) has made 20-of-22 cuts, including 12 Top Ten finishes. Spieth has gained strokes tee to green in 21 of those starts. He also happens to be 2nd in DK Points over the past 36 rounds. Spieth is a member at Trinity Forest GC, which is a brand new course for the tour that many in the field haven’t played until this week. That familiarity could help him, but I’m diving into narrative street on this one too. His best friend, Justin Thomas, just became #1 OWGR and Spieth will be motivated to remind everyone that he’s still around as well. Yes, people have made a big deal of his putting, but he is 87th in Putting Reliance in the field when it comes to scoring DK Points.
Though he did win this event last year, Billy Horschel ($9,700) is overpriced considering who’s around him. I’d prefer Sergio Garcia ($10,100) and Jimmy Walker ($9,500) over Horschel this week. Garcia is 5th in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green over his past 36 rounds, despite a dip in performance more recently. Walker seems to finally be out of the doldrums that came along with his battle with Lyme disease last year and ready to compete.

Mid-Tier Golfers ($9,500 – $8,500)

As with most weaker field events, we have some names that aren’t terribly familiar in the $9,000 range. Don’t let that dissuade you from them, though. Beau Hossler ($9,000) has ties to this course and is 20th in DK Points, and 9th in Strokes Gained: Total over the past 36 rounds.
The guy I’m playing in One & Done contests this week is Aaron Wise ($8,800). He’s coming off of a T2 finish at the Wells Fargo and has made 5-of-6 cuts lately. Despite an up and down stretch, he’s still 3rd in DK Points over the past 36 rounds.
The cash play right below him may be Charles Howell ($8,700), but I like Wise for GPPs. It doesn’t get much safer than Howell, though. Since the start of 2017, Howell is 31-of-35 in made cuts. Much of his DK Points hinge on his putter though; he gains over 11 DK Points per event when he finishes in the Top 25 of SG: Putting.

Value Golfers ($8,500 – $7,000)

GPPs will be won and lost in the $7,000 range this week. Sam Saunders ($7,400) is someone who interests me in this range. He’s 6th in DK Points and is basically free this week. If he can bring his short game around these challenging green complexes, he could be in for a good finish this week. It’s worth noting, that when Saunders is in the Top 25 of Strokes Gained: Around the Green, he averages five more DK Points compared to when he isn’t.
If we think around the green game will factor in at all this week, Seamus Power ($7,300) makes a ton of sense. Power is 18th in Strokes Gained: Short Game, according to Fantasy National.
Kevin Tway ($7,200) is a guy who’s slowly rounding into form and could pick apart a course like this with his skillset. He had a rough California/Florida swing but has made all of the Texas cuts this year and is a hot putter away from an outstanding result. When Tway finishes in the Top 25 of Strokes Gained: Putting, he averages over 6.5 more DK Points than when he doesn’t.

Cheap Dart Throws (Sub – $7,000)

The well runs pretty dry by the time that you get to the sub-$7,000 range. The optimal lineup construction might lead you to avoid this range altogether. But, if you really want to stack two top tier guys, there are a few guys at $6,900 that are worth a small sprinkle in a GPP. You could do worse than Brian Gay ($6,900) this week. He is just a few starts removed from a T22 at the API and is 38th in DK Points. Andrew Putnam ($6,900) flashed a bit last time he was in Texas with a T8 finish and can score well. He’s had two Top Ten finishes in his past four starts.

mjones

I host a podcast called Bogey Free which can be found on iTunes or YouTube. I'm one of the PGA Analysts at DraftKings. On this site, you can find me talking Football Redraft or PGA DFS. Follow along on Twitter @MattJonesTFR to stay up to date.

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