Trying to forecast the dynasty stock market can be a daunting process. We have to account for what seems to be limitless variables. Coaching changes, draft picks, age, and even contracts all factor into whether we should buy, hold, or sell a player.
“IT’S JUST BUSINESS. EVERYTHING IS JUST BUSINESS WITH US: BUY FOR A NICKEL, SELL FOR A DIME.” – SPIROS “VONDAS” –THE WIRE
In my opinion, no quote could ever better encapsulate the meaning of “Buying Low and Selling High” than the one posted above. Whereas Vondas was referring to something else entirely, this quote always comes to mind when pondering the trade market. Below I will analyze the buys, sells, holds from the Atlanta Falcons. But I would like to make one point clear before we dive into those players. Each league and team construction will greatly determine if a player is a buy, sell, or hold. I hope this list will help you in your quest to dynasty dominance. Enjoy.
Austin Hooper: The tight end position is one of the most difficult transitions from the college to professional level in football. You need to be able to block like an offensive lineman while catching and running routes, like a wide receiver. Austin Hooper has shown that he can not only handle the responsibilities but that he excels at executing his assignments. The 22-year-old Stanford product didn’t impress on the stat sheet enough to draw attention from the fantasy community despite his 70% catch rate and 14 yards per reception. However, given the fact that it usually takes 2-3 years for a tight end to find his stride in the NFL, Hooper looks primed to breakout in the 2017 season. Owners will sell him at a low price when they glance back at his rookie stats and only see 27 targets and 271 yards, which means you can cash in when he annihilates those numbers this year. With an elite QB like Matt Ryan at the helm of this prolific offense, look for number 81 to be bursting up the seam en route to a TE1 season.
Taylor Gabriel: This dude is FAST. Let’s look past his 5’8” 165lb frame and notice that he ran a 4.27 forty yard dash at his pro day. I don’t care how much bigger the guy covering him might be; I would love to see them try to keep up with “Turbo Taylor.” Opposing defenses are too busy trying to cover superstar receiver Julio Jones and the lightning rods coming out of the backfield. They don’t even realize that Gabriel chugged a gallon of rocket fuel in the huddle and is scorching down the sideline. Starting in early November of last year, Gabriel was getting 5-6 targets per game. For a big play guy like him, that’s all he needs to really pad his stats with yards and long touchdowns. He won’t cost much to buy and with his unbelievable acceleration, you could be investing in the next Tyreek Hill.
Matt Ryan: This is a no-brainer. I’m going to list some of his 2016 stats, and you tell me what you see:
69.9 completion percentage
4,944 total passing yards
309 yards per game
You’re probably saying to yourself, “I see an elite QB with his best career numbers in every single category.” At face-value, you’re absolutely right; Matt Ryan had his career season. When I look at all these fancy numbers, I see a single 10-letter word: Regression. Ryan played unbelievable last season, and he’s an amazingly talented quarterback. Due to his pocket passing style and accuracy, he’s easily got another 5+ years in him. Which is why you should sell him to the highest bidder this offseason. Basic logic tells us that he will regress back to the average of his stats in each category and will not hold his current value at this same time next year. That’s not to say he won’t have another great season because chances are he will still be a QB1, but he is at peak value, and you should sell him at his max price.
Devonta Freeman: By the rankings here at DFF, Freeman holds the number 4 spot amongst running backs. Don’t get it twisted, just because he’s in the sell category, doesn’t mean I don’t think he’s good. He’s going to break 1,000 rushing yards and probably catch another 50 balls from Matty Ice. Let’s think about the three guys above him right now: DJ, Le’Veon, and Zeke. I think I can speak for a vast majority of the dynasty community when I say that Freeman will not supplant any of these three for a top-3 spot. So, if we all agree that this is his ceiling, selling him now would give you your greatest return on investment because he won’t ever be worth more than his current value. There are people in your league that will pay an obscene price to plug him into their starting lineup. If you have running backs to spare, you may want to consider cashing out on Freeman for a package deal that may include a WR1, multiple first round picks, and some sweeteners on the back end. There are so many weapons in Atlanta, and Tevin Coleman is going to siphon carries/catches away from Freeman just like he did last season. If you can afford it, selling Freeman at his peak price this offseason could allow you to bolster all other weaknesses on your roster.
Mohamed Sanu: This guy is about as solid as you can get for a bye week fill-in or to help a roster that’s plagued by injuries. He ended last season with 59 catches for 653 yards and 4 TDs. Sure, his scoring total is low, but he’s catching balls and he’s getting yards. With an average of about 11 yards per catch and 43 yards per game with the occasional score, he’s making an impact. You can’t expect to get anything for him in a trade, but you can’t drop him in case the turf monster gets a hold of Julio’s toe again. Let Sanu hangout on the bench and summon him to the Flex in times of desperation or opportunity.
Tevin Coleman: Coleman definitely isn’t the man in the Atlanta backfield. It’s clear that he’s playing a complementary role to the electric Freeman. Despite playing the part of Robin in the Falcons’ backfield, he still managed to gain over 70 yards from scrimmage per game not to mention tacking on 8 total touchdowns. Based on how efficient he was with those touches (4.4 yards per carry, 13.6 yards per reception), he should have no problem being a significant part of the halfback work in this upcoming season. He’s not worth a sell because you won’t be able to get enough value for him with Freeman leading the charge. He’s a good utility back that will provide great depth on your roster.