Week 11 Start & Sit

Well, Week 11 is already upon us and the fantasy playoff picture is coming into focus in most leagues. Hopefully you’ve already locked a spot up or are still in the mix. If not, this is prime-time to become a spoiler, especially in your home leagues. Maybe I’m just a hater, but knocking one of my buddies out of the playoffs is almost more satisfying to me than actually making the playoffs myself. Hopefully our recommendations below will help you lock up a playoff spot or get you positioned into a better finish and higher seeding once the playoffs begin. As always, we have our normal Start & Sit suggestions, our IDP start recommendations and we will look into the Las Vegas sportsbook numbers to find games and players to target or fade

As we do each week, we’ll be taking a look at the Las Vegas numbers this week with DFF’s Rick Kerns @CoachKernzy. One thing I want to quickly touch on that I’ve been having trouble confirming are the travel plans for the Raiders & Texans ahead of Monday night’s showdown in Mexico City. Mexico City is a high elevation destination, meaning there is less oxygen. By comparison, Denver is over 5,200 feet in elevation while Mexico City is nearly 7,400 feet.

In the past, this has become an issue in sporting events held there. Most recently UFC Champion Cain Velasquez- who notoriously has had one of the best gas tanks in MMA- was gasping for air early into a bout he subsequently lost, while his overmatched opponent was fine because he had been in the environment for a longer period of time prior to the fight. Anyway, back to football… I’ll be trying to get more information on each teams travel plans via their beat writers on Twitter, so keep an eye on my account @dibari22 the next few days, if the Texans, for example, have been in Mexico City since last Monday and the Raiders are waiting until Saturday night to travel, I might be all over the Texans and avoid Raiders, or vice versa.

Now, onto the rest of the slate. There are several games this week above that 7 touchdown, 49 point, mark we like to see.

Tennessee at Indianapolis -3, with an over/under (o/u) of 53. Oh buddy! Let’s all sit back and watch these two QBs light it up. Both are playing well of late and the supporting casts are getting healthier and more productive. Defenses on both sides are suspect so, that only adds gas to the fire these offenses will be on. All the key offensive players should be squeezed into your lineups.

Carolina -3.5 hosts the Saints with a total of 52. The Panther defense is playing better lately, but Brees and company will have little problem with that secondary. I expect the Panthers to do as they please against the Saints defense as well. Look for this one to be another enjoyable, back and forth shootout. The only (slight) reservation here is that this is the Thursday night game, which have traditionally disappointed.

Oh boy… New England -13 visiting the San Francisco 49ers, 51 o/u. Brady and his bunch will be looking to take out some frustration here after their loss last week to the Seahawks. I expect the Pats to do whatever they want on offense but I also think SF may be able to score in the low 20s even if some of that is in garbage time. The only fear here is that Brady and the passing game let off the gas if they get out to a large lead.

The Packers travel to Washington with a total of 50.5 and the Redskins favored by 3. Let’s be blunt here, GB defense sucks. So in this one we expect the Skins to be able to score in bunches via the air and then Rodgers and company playing catch-up again with a lot of meaningless garbage yardage and scoring. The Green Bay secondary is particularly bad, and all of Washington’s WRs should see significant targets and production.

Really the only games we’d probably look to stay away from except for the studs of course would be Arizona at Minnesota at 40.5 and The Rams hosting the Dolphins with an o/u of 40, although with Goff starting it might be a good spot to stream Miami defense. The Buccaneers are only projected to score 18 points this week, the lowest on the board, so you might look to fade everybody there this week. Also, the Bears sure look like they’ve already packed it in for the year, so their projected total of 19 is a big red flag too. Finally, the Seahawks appear to have hit their annual late season stride- surge is more like it- and the unfortunate opponent this week is the Eagles who are projected to score less than 20 points too, so you might be best served to stay away from all Eagles and Target all Seattle players.

Featured Starts:

Quarterback: Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills. “Tygawd” is currently on a streak of great games and is a must-start. T2 is playing at a high level and taking on the Bengals mediocre defense. I like T-Mobile’s chances for 20+ fantasy points and maybe even another nickname after this game in Cincinnati in which we will probably see him score by both air and land. – Jeremy Browand @DFF_Madman

Running Back: Dion Lewis, New England Patriots. Lewis returns to the fold against the most favorable matchup a Running Back could ask for. I do believe it’s Blount’s backfield for the time being, but there are a ton of points to be had for the New England backs. Lewis will probably see a light workload in his first game this season, but the matchup is too great for me to pass up. If Lewis is active for the game I will have him in my lineup. – Lawrence Chaney @pacificscouting

Wide Receiver: Jamison Crowder, Washington Redskins. I’m a big Crowder fan and feel like this is a great opportunity to promote him in primetime on Sunday Night Football against a defense that just gave up 5 passing TDs. I expect Washington to have a great day through the air, and for Crowder to be a main beneficiary of that. – Eric Iannaccone @pprranks

Tight End: Dennis Pitta, Baltimore Ravens. Pitta isn’t going to be a guy that propels a team into weekly wins, however he is a guy that you can count on to give a good base at a position that lacks surefire starts each week. Pitta has yet to catch a touchdown this season and has yet to become a redzone threat. Ultimately, I expect him to garner you a solid five catches, along with his current average, and 40-50 yards. He faces a Cowboys defense that should allow him to hit those numbers this week. – Shaun Crandall @WhiskeyD0G

Defense/Special Teams: Arizona Cardinals. Playing at Minnesota, facing a terrible Vikings run game and a highly suspect, under performing Sam Bradford, on a 4 game losing streak. Minnesota has looked awful since their 5-win start to the season, I expect turnovers in bunches for the Cardinals.  – John DiBari @dibari22

IDP Starts: courtesy of our very own J.T. Maynard @FatAdamSchefter.

LB – Vontaze Burfict, Cincinnati Bengals. I think the Bengals LBs will have their hands full with Shady and the league’s top rushing QB.

Last Week: Derrick Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs. 6 points (Bust-O-Rama!) This dude craps out the week I pick him! Ugh!

DB- Harrison Smith, Minnesota Vikings. Let me first say he is my favorite Safety in the league and I had him on many championship teams. He goes up against David Johnson this week. Start him.

Last Week: Kenny Vaccaro, New Orleans Saints. 31 (Exceptional!) *His highest score all year, btw.

DL – William Gholston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He looks like he has been a steady 10-15 point producer the last couple of weeks. Ride the wave!

Last Week: Timmy Jernigan, Baltimore Ravens. 12 points (Solid) He has cooled off as of late.

Wildcard – LB Vincent Rey, Cincinnati Bengals. This must start comes courtesy of my dude “Uncle B.” He thinks Rey will have a great game because of his coverage skills. I hope you’re right!

Last Week: Nigel Bradham, Philadelphia Eagles. 10 points (Serviceable) The Philly D- Line is doing a grand job!

*My MFL IDP league records: 7-3, 7-3, 7-3, 5-5. Took a hit in my home league losing 291-271. It hurt, but it was to an honorable opponent. This is a division game coming up for some in week 11. Good luck and Kick some butt!

JT will be on Twitter before the 1pm est. Sunday games if you have any questions about your IDP lineups, hit him up @FatAdamSchefter.

Featured Sits:

Quarterback: Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles. I think Mr. Philly Franchise is up for an awful game this week. Seattle is on the upsurge with a few healthy starters back on their notorious defense. The Eagles have been playing pretty well, but the Seahawks are going to own the right coast birds of prey in Seattle this week. – Jeremy Browand @DFF_Madman

Running back: Jay Ajayi, Miami Dolphins. The Rams matchup well with the Dolphins and have been a tough draw for Running Backs on their home turf. Ajayi has absolutely turned the Dolphins season around, but the presence of Aaron Donald will be a huge factor in this game. Ajayi is coming off of a 9 point performance and I don’t think he will be able to get it going this week either. I can see the Rams defense focusing solely on the Dolphins run game forcing them to be more one dimensional. Jeff Fisher has a reputation to uphold and will need a win this week to get back to .500. The only way I see that happening is if they shut down Ajayi. – Lawrence Chaney @pacificscouting

Wide Receiver: Julian Edelman, New England Patriots. The Patriots should get out to an early lead and have little reason to throw the ball much in this game. Blount should dominate this one on the ground. There won’t be enough passing volume to support Edelman this week. Unless Edelman suddenly becomes Brady’s focal point, which he hasn’t been all season. – Eric Iannaccone @pprranks

Tight End: Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs. Tampa Bay has kept most of the opposing Tight Ends in check, with the exception of Greg Olsen, who torched them for 9 receptions and 181 yards. Kelce and the Kansas City Chiefs might find themselves in grind it out type of game with rushing yards being the dominant stat. Kelce has the potential to catch a touchdown this week, but don’t expect a heavy volume of receptions.  – Shaun Crandall @WhiskeyD0G

Defense/Special Teams: New England Patriots. After getting dominated physically be Seattle last week, the Pats travel cross country to play in San Francisco. Although I still think they win easily, their front 7 was exposed last week and Kaepernick appears to have his wheels back. I expect the 49ers to get crushed, but garbage time production will cut into the Pats final numbers this week. – John Di Bari @dibari22

Staff Starts:

Jeremy Browand: @DFF_Madman

Running Back: Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers

Wide Receiver: Michael Thomas, new Orleans Saints

Tight End: Julius Thomas, Jacksonville Jaguars

Team Defense: Miami Dolphins

Lawrence Chaney: @pacificscouting

Quarterback: Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins

Wide Receiver: Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers

Tight End: Dennis Pitta, Baltimore Ravens

Team Defense: Miami Dolphins

Eric Iannaccone: @pprranks

Quarterback: Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills

Running Back: Legarrette Blount, New England Patriots

Tight End: Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions

Team Defense: New York Giants

Shaun Crandall: @WhiskeyD0G

Quarterback: Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals

Running Back: Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams

Wide Receiver: Terrelle Pryor, Cleveland Browns

Team Defense: New York Giants

John Di Bari: @dibari22

Quarterback: Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs

Running Back: Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns

Wide Receiver: Pierre Garcon, Washington Redskins

Tight End: Julius Thomas, Jacksonville Jaguars

Mining for Gold: Here we will give you a few deeper league start recommendations for those of you in huge, deep leagues. Not necessarily ringing endorsements but, a few names to plug-and-play if injuries and bye weeks have put you in a bind.

QB: Brock Osweiler, Houston Texans.

RB: Shaun Draughn, San Francisco 49ers. Kenneth Dixon, Baltimore Ravens. Chris Thompson, Washington Redskins

WR: Malcolm Mitchell, New England Patriots. Roger Lewis, New York Giants. Marqise Lee, Jacksonville Jaguars. Seth Robert, Oakland Raiders. Adam Theilen, Minnesota Vikings. Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs. Eli Rogers, Pittsburgh Steelers. Chester Rogers, Indianapolis Colts.

TE: Vance McDonald, San Francisco 49ers.

Staff Sits:

Jeremy Browand: @DFF_Madman

Running Back: Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams

Wide Receiver: Jarvis Landry, Miami Dolphins

Tight End: Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles

Team Defense: Cincinnati Bengals

Lawrence Chaney: @pacificscouting

Quarterback: Sam Bradford, Minnesota Vikings

Wide Receiver: Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina Panthers

Tight End: Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys

Team Defense: Houston Texans

Eric Iannaccone: @pprranks

Quarterback: Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers

Running Back: Thomas Rawls, Seattle Seahawks

Tight End: Dennis Pitta, Baltimore Ravens

Team Defense: Houston Texans

Shaun Crandall: @WhiskeyD0G

Quarterback: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Running Back: Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints

Wide Receiver: Cam Meredith, Chicago Bears

Team Defense: Seattle Seahawks

John Di Bari: @dibari22

Quarterback: Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals

Running Back: Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints

Wide Receiver: Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders

Tight End: Cameron Brate, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Last week’s record: WOOF! Sometimes you’re the hammer, sometimes you’re the nail and last week we were the nail. Collectively, we weren’t embarrassingly bad, but we were far from good. Following a couple really solid weeks in a row, I guess some regression was to be expected. That being said, we went 21-29 overall, and a really awful 9-16 on our “Start” plays, hopefully if you took any of our advice you hit on those 9 winners. Oh well, we must move on and look ahead and we hope to improve on those numbers this week. As the old saying goes, “You can’t win ‘em all”.

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Good luck in Week 11. Time has really flown by this season, right? Once this week is wrapped up most players only have 2 more weeks of the fantasy football regular season left and for those of you not in line to make the playoffs, it’ll already be time to start looking ahead to 2017. Thank you for reading and thanks to the staff here at DFF- Jeremy, Lawrence, Eric, Shaun, Rick & J.T.- that help me make all this possible.

 

jdibari

Chicagoan living in Las Vegas. Fantasy Football writer & Director of In-Season Analysis for Dynasty Football Factory, blogger for USFantasy and contributor to TheFakeHockey. Member FSWA.

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