For the first time in what seems like eons I am sitting down to write. The circumstances surrounding my ability to put the written word into action is based largely on the fact that we just suffered one of the worst storms in state history today and I’m one of the lucky 110,000 city residents without power. Perhaps the man upstairs was sending me a message or perhaps I’ve simply suffered from apathy. Who knows. Regardless, I thought this was the perfect time to clear out the creative cobwebs and put this dark, quiet time to good use. Note: I am thankful I at least had a charged laptop ready for me to get to work so, let’s get started.
As fanatical fantasy footballers we all strive for one thing each season and that’s to take home the ‘ship. So, whether you’re a re-draft owner or dynasty owner the mission is the same. Just win baby! However, the mission for us dynasty owners is a wee bit different. As dynasty owners we not only strive to reach the pinnacle and take home the title, we are also methodically plotting and constantly strategizing on how to build a sustainable title contender year in and year out. After all, that’s the ultimate reason we’ve chosen to play within the uber-competitive realm of dynasty football right? Therefore, as we navigate our way through the dictatorship that is being a dynasty owner, we often find ourselves at a crossroads when it comes to separating emotion from sense and sensibility.
As we all know, one of the most effective ways to build a dynasty is by continuously remaining accountable, knowledgeable and steadfast in our mission, yet flexible enough to make the sensible call when it comes to roster management. A philosophy I’ve adopted for this particular purpose is a simple one… “Always Be Building”. Although it’s simply stated and direct it can also be misinterpreted. Some might view this tactic as anything from blowing up your team and hitting the reset button to selling off players for less than proper value just because you are a homer for a particular player. Therefore, in an effort to explain this philosophy as effectively as possible here is the definition I have developed…
Always Be Building – is the act in which an individual is constantly seeking knowledge. An individual who encompasses the traits of sense and sensibility through the incremental manipulation of a given situation, in an effort to insulate their position through discovery or acquisition of assets and/or value.
The cornerstone to any successful dynasty owner is a very simple one…it’s remaining informed. Knowledge is power and we fantasy players have a wealth of resources at our disposal to gain such knowledge. However, not only is the absorption of knowledge paramount to success, but specifically how you act on it carries equal importance. Therefore, one of the most impactful steps you can take as a fantasy owner and by extension, dynasty owner, is to remain an active, yet responsible, participant in the trade market.
This article won’t dive into how we let our emotional attachments abstain us from moving “our” guy, rather, we will be discussing two philosophies of the trading process. One is a more commonly used term that most of you are already familiar with… “selling high”. The second term is more of an unwritten, cerebral approach and not a term you see used a lot and that’s… “selling hype”. Make no mistake, both are unique in and of themselves and I’ll explain why. First let’s start by talking about the philosophy and intentions behind each term before we get into the practical application of how knowing the difference can be a weapon in your arsenal.
The act of “selling high” is one we’ve heard often. Article upon article is written illuminating the benefits and motivations on why do to so. Therefore, there is no need to dig into that area yet again. Selling high is a simple concept. It’s the obvious play. You sell high on players that are defined as proven top end producers such as; Julio Jones, AJ Green, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Rodgers, Le’Veon Bell, etc. The act of selling high is designed to accomplish one ultimate goal and that’s to insulate your team with production depth. Never should you “sell high” on one of these types of players and only get one player in return. That’s not selling high, that’s swapping production. I’ve cautioned fantasy owners for years on the negatives in moving a “stud” for a “stud”. It’s a poor use of your premium resources plain and simple.
I realize some of you are saying to yourselves, but what if I had an injury and needed a replacement, or I am deep at one position and weak at another and the team I am dealing with has the opposite issue so, it’s fair and makes sense for both of us. Okay, sure. There is always a way to justify it, I get that, but at the end of the day these premium resources should ultimately be used to strengthen your entire unit and not a singular position. This my friends, is where sense and sensibility comes in to play.
In most cases, one player won’t typically change the dynamic of your dynasty team or for that matter, create a sustainable dynasty juggernaut. Remember, the dynasty experience is a marathon, not a sprint. Certainly, timing is everything and if you’re willing to throw caution to the wind to win the title and rebuild in the off-season then so be it. However, from a value and “dynasty” building stand point you would be better served to maximize the ROI on your premium asset, insulate your dynasty team, while setting yourself up to remain competitive for not only the short, but long term, rather than just one season. Hence, why you’re in a dynasty league right?
I think we can all agree that there is nothing better than capitalizing on the communal “hype” surrounding a player, whether that be through the acquisition, or selling of said player. For my money, I prefer being on the side of the latter. Reflecting back on the selling high section, you won’t be identifying players like the aforementioned ones when you’re looking at “selling hype”. Those players have already earned their stripes. The players you identify as candidates for “hype” are going to be your lesser established players, your players who either have yet to peak and/or are being “buzzed” during the off-season, OTA’s, pre-season, etc. Before I continue, let me preface what I am about to say by saying that I won’t be assessing player’s values in this piece, rather simply discussing the act of selling “hype”.
Identifying the “Hyped”
This off-season is no different than any other. There are a bountiful number of players we could discuss who are positioned beautifully as a “hype” candidates. However, for this exercise I’ll be placing my focus on just one… second year WR Tyler Lockett of the Seattle Seahawks. For those of you Lockett fans who are now suffering from a conniption fit, just keep in mind, we aren’t going to canvass his ADP or analytically microscope his past & future potential, etc. We are simply dissecting the player through employing sense and sensibility paired with some general statistics for his “hype” candidacy and how you can capitalize on it.
When speaking about Lockett, Seahawks head coach, Pete Carroll recently stated: “he’s a starting receiver for us” and “is right in the middle of all our planning”. For those Lockett owners out there this is music to your ears and rightfully so. By all accounts T-Lock is in-line for a solid 2016 season and his dynamic play-making ability should make for some must-watch TV. Having said that, let’s take a look at why he falls directly on my “hyped” list.
For starters, let’s just look at some simple bullet points.
*Doug Baldwin led all receiving categories.
- He was 2nd in receptions with 51. (Kearse, 49 & Graham, 48)
- He was 3rd in receiving yards with 664. (Kearse, 685 & Graham, 605)
- He was 3rd with 69 total targets. (Graham, 74 & Kearse, 68)
- Seattle ranked 28th in pass attempts in 2015.
- Seattle ranked 25th in completions in 2015.
- The Seahawks recently resigned Baldwin to a 4-year, 46mil dollar contract extension with 24.25 million guaranteed.
- Seattle drafted 3 RBs, 1 WR & 1 TE in the 2016 NFL Draft.
Okay, so all of the above highlighted information is by no means saying that Lockett can’t be a “breakout” candidate in 2016. However, he did end his rookie season as the WR43 in 2015 playing in every game and finished with a PPR line of 155.40 fantasy points. So, can Lockett do better in 2016? I certainly hope so. But the question you have to ask yourself is…will he realistically be anything more than a boom or bust WR4? Is he worth holding onto for his “upside” or would you better served leaning on his current “hype” and move him now before having a dead asset on your hands? C-Patt anyone?
Here’s where the “hype” factors in. Take all the current buzz fed news out there on Lockett and sell, Sell, SELL! Maximize your return on a player who…mark my words…will NOT be a difference-maker for your team in standard PPR formats. Okay, sure, if you have return yards or some other extenuating variables in your scoring system perhaps you hold. But, Lockett represents the pitch perfect candidate to parlay immediately for an overpriced return.
Don’t allow the emotion of the moment to dictate your moves. Get informed and break it down. You don’t need to over analyze this stuff. Just look at the basics. Keep it simple. Allow sense and sensibility to guide you and you’ll be okay. Bottom line…if you can parlay your Lockett share into a 2017 1st & 2nd round pick…you do it! Gain the knowledge, assess the values, and strike while the irons hot and remember…Always Be Building!
Thanks for reading! I hope you kept with me the whole way through. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @DynastyFFactory. Go forward and conquer!