Hot Routes: Trade Values

 

The mission of this article is to make our in-house experts sizzle and bristle over the hot-button issues that face dynasty owners. Our experts make the entire route tree HOT as they address topics from the world of IDP, Devy, Start/sit, Non-PPR, PPR and everything in between. Try not to get burned by all the fiery YAC below! This is Dynasty Hot Routes!

**This week is all about actual dynasty trades that have occurred lately**

Contender gets stronger: Team A (contender) receives Rob Gronkowski & a 2018 mid-2nd. Team B receives Jamison Crowder & 1.11. Pick a side?

Joshua Johnson – This trade seemingly helps both teams. Team A was obviously very solid, he or she was picking 1.11. I would think if you are trading for Gronk that TE is your biggest weakness. Sacrificing a young WR and a late first is a pretty reasonable gamble for the top player at his position. Team B clearly has work to do and purging your older assets when they can still perform at an elite level is never a bad idea. Crowder is little polarizing but his talent has really shined through so far during his young career. His future is a little murky with QB Kirk Cousins potentially on the move but talent is talent.

Shaun Laibe – At first glance, Team A seems to have gotten the better end of this deal. Assuming he is healthy, Gronk is the most unstoppable TE in the league. He is the sort of difference maker that turns a good fantasy team into a great one. With that said, Gronk has not played a full 16 game season since 2011. Team B probably knows this and accomplished their goal of getting a solid WR (Crowder) and a Gronk replacement at pick 1.11 (possibly Njoku or Engram). Still, I’m siding with Team A here. If you have the chance to win your league this season, I recommend doing everything you can do better your odds. Acquiring Gronk does just that.

Brian Hawkes – I’m taking side A. The draft pick swap is a virtual wash. That being said, if you’re offered Gronk for Jamison Crowder…that’s a no brainer. Gimme the Gronk side all day, every day.

Brad McDaniel – This appears to be a good trade for both sides. If I have to pick a side, I’d pick Team A’s side, but I love what Team B is doing. I’m in full move Gronk while I can mode right now. It’s nice to have Gronk on your roster but wishing he was healthy has gotten old. Team B could stay put with Crowder and 1.11 and most likely draft another TE, but Crowder has so much value right now, why not try to move him for even more?

Emmett Kiernan – I’ll take the Gronk side. Crowder is a safer player but he does not offer nearly the same upside as Gronk. When that beast stays on the field there is nobody in the game like him.

Shane Manila – Although this is a fair trade give me the Gronkowski side. Looking at the draft picks exchanged, you’re most likely looking at a difference of a ½ round. Taking a glance at next season’s draft class the 2018 rookie draft looks deeper and stronger than this draft class. That might make those picks a wash. If Gronkowski is healthy, an ever present if, he’s going to help the contending team immensely this upcoming season. 

When Gronk is right he’s easily the best TE in real and fantasy football, by a wide margin. But Gronk isn’t always healthy and with multiple back surgeries, there’s legitimate concern for how much longer he can play. When you have the chance to for a championship you have to take it, so give me the Gronk side.

Cellar dwellers orphan sacrifices player for two higher picks: Team A (cellar dweller) receives 2.10 & 2.11. Team B receives Tavon Austin & 3.05. Pick a side?

Joshua Johnson – As someone who was bought and sold Austin I can tell you this is a pretty solid return. Depending on your league size it not always smart to trade veterans away for picks. However, after doing several rookie drafts I believe round two is teeming with useful talent. The Cellar Dweller gets two higher picks and stands a chance at fortifying his future depth.

Shaun Laibe – This one is easy, I’m going with Team A. When rebuilding a bad team, you should do your best to distance yourself from guys like Tavon Austin. Austin is a mediocre WR5 at best. The roster spot used on him would be better spent on any up and coming prospect. Austin is a guy you might use as a bye week fill-in, but not the kind of player you can count on for solid week to week fantasy points. Moving up in the draft and adding an additional pick is the only move here for the cellar dweller owner. If I owned this team, I’d be trying to swing more deals like this.

Brian Hawkes – I’m going side A here. Austin isn’t a piece that is making a difference for anyone. Give me two swings to strike gold over a known, average player (Austin) and a later swing.

Brad McDaniel –  Tavon Austin has always been a throwaway piece for me. Or is it throw-in piece? Couldn’t tell ya because I’ve never owned a share. That said, give me the unknown of two higher draft picks in this deal because, like any good fantasy owner, I think I can do better than you with those picks.

Emmett Kiernan – Team A and it is not close. Tavon Austin does not have a bright fantasy future.

Shane Manila – Tavon Austin is terrible. I don’t think he should be rostered in anything other than best-ball leagues. Or leagues that give scoring for disappointing, over-drafted gadget wide receivers, maybe he’s worth a  roster spot in a league like that. I’d like to give kudo’s to whatever owner was able to trade him for anything of value, kudo’s good sir or madam.

Is the trade return enough for a WR1? Team A receives T.Y. Hilton. Team B receives 1.06 & 2.07. Pick a side.

Joshua Johnson – I actually turned down those exact picks for Michael Thomas (Saints). I guess since Hilton is older it seems a little fairer. Yet, Hilton is only turning 28 years old this November. He could potentially have four to six years of elite production left. Not mention he has a stable QB in Andrew Luck who is clearly entrenched as the starter in Indy. So I guess I don’t get this trade at all. With the 1.06 the best you can hope is John Ross and/or Joe Mixon and at the 2.07 you might get Jamaal Williams, Jamal Adams, Evan Engram of Carlos Henderson. 

All those players are useful talent but not elite besides maybe Adams. I would have to see how the picks turn out to make a formal decision on this trade. I would also like to say I would trade that for Hilton but I would not accept that as compensation for his services.

Shaun Laibe – This is one of those rare deals where both teams seem to benefit. Team A gets a low-end WR1 and Team B gets two good draft picks. Pick 1.06 has been a common landing spot for the Charger’s rookie WR, Mike Williams. Assuming that is the pick here, Team B immediately gets a highly skilled replacement for Hilton. Pick 2.06 is a wildcard, but Team B could potentially grab another high upside WR like Zay Jones, Curtis Samuel or Chris Godwin. Assuming Team A is contending and Team B is rebuilding, this trade works both ways.

Brian Hawkes – I’ll take side A. We play to win the game! You hope a draft pick gives you TY-esque production. I want the proven commodity (among the most consistent producers at his position) who is paired with a stable, young QB and has a significant financial commitment from the Colts for several years.

Brad McDaniel – I like Team A getting T.Y. Hilton here. I just drafted Hilton at 2.01 in a startup and I wouldn’t take those picks for him. If Team B is rebuilding, then I get it, but they didn’t get enough in return.

Emmett Kiernan – Hilton side for sure. He has been one of the best receivers in the league over the last five years and still has a few elite seasons left in him.

Shane Manila – Not enough. Looking at the last full month of rookie ADP this trade would net you, Mike Williams and Zay Jones. I like Williams and Jones well enough but neither is a sure-fire prospect. Giving up the WR5 (17.0 FPPG) in 2016 to for two iffy prospects feels light to me. Top 24 wide receivers usually repeat that feat the following season, so you’re looking at worst a WR2 season for Hilton in 2017 and most likely at least several years after that.

From the team here at DFF please have a happy Memorial Day. Anyone that has served has our eternal gratitude and respect.

jjohnson

I am searching for the meaning of every bump on the pigskin. From leather helmets to a league with no point after attempts, I am researching with a wide shovel. -married/father/music fan/Raider Nation baby/deli meat enthusiast/three-cone extremist

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