There comes a time, over the course of every Dynasty league, when owner’s must face the decision to move on from the loyalty they have kept for their historically productive veterans. The best thing we, as devoted Dynasty owners, can do in an effort to lessen the gravity of these difficult decisions, is to never get emotionally attached to any one player and always be willing to trade anyone at any given time. As we all know, Father Time plays no favorites. As such, the 2015 season is no different when it comes to being tasked with having to make that bold decision which will have a direct impact on your Dynasty future.
In this article we will be exploring a few of cases, where a “changing of the guard” could very well be what the 2016 season will bring. Therefore, these players need to be given serious consideration to buying now, while selling those players of which only Father Time owns equity.
Buy: Brock Osweiler
Brock Osweiler represents much more than simply the “Next Man Up,” in the Mile-High city. In fact, in what has only been a short stint ,as the Broncos starter he has proven his mettle and demonstrated for the Broncos brass that he is more than capable of leading the Denver Broncos in the post-Manning era. Should Osweiler assume command of the Broncos in 2016 he will have plenty of ammunition to utilize, as the Broncos boast exceptional talent at every skill position.
Sell: Peyton Manning
There really is no need to discuss the reasons to sell Manning period. However, if he returns to a starting role in 2016 and unless you are playing in a 2 QB format, Manning simply isn’t worth rostering.
The Running Backs
Buy: Alfred Morris
Full disclosure: I am not an Alfred Morris fan. With that said, I believe he is worth a buy. His value continues to plummet while the Redskins continue to slowly transition into the Matt Jones era, which isn’t much of a surprise since Morris will be a free agent in 2016. Bottom line, I simply do not see him returning to Washington. Where will be land? I have no clue. My personal belief that the best fit for Morris would be in a Patriots uniform. Blount is also a free agent in 2016, so it may not be such a stretch after all.
Regardless, whereever he goes, Morris is still young and has been a very productive back while with the Redskins. In fact, he has rushed for over 1000 yards in every season since being drafted in the 6th round in 2012. Although Morris will likely never be a PPR asset he can still be a more than serviceable RB2 in the right system and you can likely get him for pennies on the dollar at the moment.
Sell: Frank Gore
The Gore era, as a productive NFL caliber running back, is over. I was of the opinion that it was over long before Indianapolis even brought him over. I imagine the idea was to bring in Gore to give Luck a sturdy and reliable veteran back to help with the development of some of the younger players, while also serving as a viable production option from time to time. The offense was never designed to let a running back go bananas, especially when your quarterback is Andrew Luck.
Frank Gore has served his tour of duty and earned the respect he deserves for the success he has had. Nevertheless, the time is now to unload your Gore shares. Hopefully you have already purged your rosters or moved him earlier in the season. If not, you may find the trade market rather bare for his services. Nonetheless, try to sell before the inevitable pre-2016 dump.
The Wide Receivers
Buy: Travis Benjamin
If you are a current Benjamin owner, then more power to you. If you are seeking to acquire shares of Benjamin now is the time to strike. Unfortunately, for most the trade deadlines have passed. Fear not, because regardless of what happens from here on out this season you can use the “Josh Gordon is returning” excuse to help sway owners from what may be a lofty return on their Benjamin investment. Certainly Gordon’s return will play a part in TB’s value but I believe they could compliment one another very well, no matter who is throwing them the ball. I don’t foresee Benjamin becoming a WR1 but I do see his ceiling as a low-end WR2 while making a solid weekly WR3.
Sell: Steve “The Ageless One” Smith, Sr.
Prior to his season ending injury Steve Smith Sr. was well on is way to proving that age is just a number. It is unfortunate that an injury derailed what was declared as his final season in the NFL. For those owners who held on to him too long there may be a silver lining waiting to be unveiled. The word is, that Smith Sr. actually wants to return in 2016. If this is indeed the case, then try until you are blue in the face to get that ROI as quickly as you can. I believe that whether or not he returns in 2016, the effects of age, injury and the career long wear and tear will have finally caught up to him.
The Tight Ends
Buy: Zach Ertz
Zach Ertz is a gifted athlete. Zach Ertz plays in an offense that does in fact utilize the tight end position. Did I mention Zach Ertz is a tight end? Oh, sorry. Ertz is not just a tight end, he is a damn good tight end. The problem isn’t his physical prowess or athletic ability, the issue with Ertz is he has been consistently used with inconsistency. Whether this is a result of Chip Kelly being an egomaniac or maybe he just hates Fantasy Football, but why in the world would Brent Celek ever see playing time when Ertz is healthy? Granted Ertz hasn’t always been 100% but Celek has stolen enough thunder from Ertz for even a blind person to notice. Okay, maybe a blind person who plays fantasy football, but you get my point. He is being under utilized. Thus, the price tag on Ertz will be close to nothing so the investment will be more than affordable. Take the gamble and buy. It can’t get any worse and his ability is on par with the elite at the tight end position.
Sell: Antonio Gates
Simply put, Antonio Gates has been one of the greatest tight ends to play the game. Unfortunately, for fantasy owners he is also one of the most frustrating players to own due to always being on the injury report. Doesn’t Mr. Gates realize we need concrete assurances for our weekly starters? All joking aside, it is time to move away from Antonio Gates, especially in Dynasty leagues. The recent PED ban, increasing injuries and his age are all red flags that need to be considered. They are also causing headaches for fantasy owners who took the gamble by drafting him. Steer clear from Mr. Gates outside of anything more than a seasonal league. Although, he may not even be a safe play in those formats either. I am of the belief that Gates may not even be the TE1 in San Diego come next season, but before that debate even gets started he first will need a new contract, since he becomes a free agent at the end of 2015.
One of the keys to sustainable success in Dynasty football is to perform your best Kenny Rodgers impression and “Know when to Hold’em and know when to Fold’em”. Timing is everything. Although there is no exact science in knowing when to “Sell” a player, there is something we do know and that is, age is an opponent which no player can defeat. In that same breath, keep in mind that the players which I have recommended to “Sell” is not to say they can’t remain production assets in 2016 or even beyond. It is merely a suggestion to move these players at a time when you can still maximize a return on your investment. Therefore, don’t be afraid to make the bold decision and look towards the future. In Dynasty football, the quickest path to success is by becoming a “vigilante of vigilence” and “always be building”.
Disclaimer – Never simply drop a player who has name recognition. Always explore trade opportunities before you simply cut bait, especially when big names are involved. Remember one persons trash is another persons treasure.
Thanks for reading. You can find me on Twitter @DynastyFFactory.