Most Overrated First Round Dynasty Draft Pick
Jeremy: For me, it’s John Ross. So, he runs fast… does that make him one of the top dynasty WRs in this class? Nope. I’ve seen him drafted as high as WR2. He’s ranked close to that as well, at WR3. I see the talent. I’ve watched the games and the highlights. But he has a long list of injuries (knee: torn ACL, torn meniscus and microfracture surgery; and labrum) and I don’t see the skinny, fragile fella avoiding them once he lines up in the pros. I never draft return guys in the first round and I rarely draft slot receivers in the first round. I don’t care that he ran the fastest 40-yard dash in NFL combine history. John Brown is better than John Ross – and the reason we love Brown is the low cost to buy. John Brown is not a WR1, and John Ross won’t be either. I would trade the opportunity to draft John Ross for John Brown plus… I’d even go for Jamison Crowder. And I think I hear Tyreek Hill saying, “@ImFasterThanYa on the field.” In this draft alone, I’d take JuJu Smith-Schuster and a couple other WRs ahead of Ross based on what I see as greater opportunity to become WR1s in dynasty. More than likely, I’d take a great RB followed by WR Taywan Taylor in later rounds. Even Curtis Samuel (RB or WR?) is a better pick. John Ross will end up as the trap of this rookie WR class. Over the 2017 NFL season, his stock is going to drop faster than Usain Bolt setting world records.
John: It’s a toss-up between JuJu Smith-Schuster and Dalvin Cook – for opposite reasons. My disdain for Smith-Schuster is no secret. While I’ve always been lower than most, landing in Pittsburgh is probably ideal. On the other hand, Big Ben has got what, maybe two more years left? Then, who is going to be Smith-Schuster’s QB? For dynasty, his long-term potential takes a big hit. Cook couldn’t have landed in a worse spot. Minnesota just brought in Latavius Murray and they have an abomination of an offensive line. In PPR leagues, Cook may have some value, but he’s going to take a few years to appreciate and some new linemen to become fantasy relevant. I also hate Mike Williams’ landing in San Diego Los Angeles; the Chargers are just too crowded with pass-catching options.
JT: Mike Williams. He is a poor man’s Alshon Jeffery. Overblown and overrated, jump-ball, possession receiver who will get shut-down by some of the bigger, physical corners that are taking over in the NFL. Seriously, when was the last good WR with the last name of Williams? I love when he is picked in front of me in rookie drafts by some half-wit! (Wink, wink!)
Chris: Joe Mixon! He is a less agile, less productive, less talented – Giovani Bernard. The only thing he has going for him is weight – not BMI, I’ll point out, which is actually the one that’s important. The Bengals will probably try to give him the job in camp, but I have no confidence in the Air-Puffed version of Gio to keep it. At best, he’s mixed up in the committee RB situation, ruining any remaining value in that backfield.
Mixon punched a girl in the face early in his college career. Now, many are drafting him before McCaffrey in rookie drafts. Thoughts? Is Mixon even better than McCaffrey without the off-field baggage?
John: I just finished an article about Mixon and his standing in the fantasy community. Basically, I don’t care what he does in his personal time. And nobody should. It comes down to fantasy points to me, and that’s it. On a personal level, I think he’s a scumbag, but go through the NFL police blotter sometime. Guess what? There are hundreds of players who are as bad as, or worse than, Mixon. I like McCaffrey more as a player, but Mixon is right behind him. Cincinnati loves a redemption story, but it’s almost comical at this point. It’s like a gang whose colors are tiger stripes. But none of that matters for fantasy.
JT: Of the football heroes that you love, think about how many of them have most likely done something (not on video mind you) that is terrible – even on the level of wrong that Mixon has done – albeit when he was just essentially a dumb, young kid. I’m not saying it was a great choice, but it could’ve been an even more unspeakable act like rape, murder, etc. Once again, for you word-twisters out there, I am not saying what he did was okay. Do me a favor by thinking back to remember a time when you made a bad choice or hurt someone when you were young. We all have done something in the past. So, let’s forgive the kid and see if we can reform him. That is what the Bengals brass is going to try. If any team can reform Mixon, it is this coaching staff. He can be a really solid RB in the NFL if he works hard and keeps his mind focused.
Chris: Considering how many NFL players we currently draft that have had issues, I’m not going to address the off-the-field. However, I have Jeremy McNichols and Aaron Jones ranked higher than Joe Mixon, so there’s that. The idea of Mixon being better than my RB1 Christian McCaffrey is laughable.
I don’t know what all the film guys see, but what I see is a college RB in a committee who completely failed to claim the backfield as his own. I don’t care if Samaje Perine is an NFL RB now too. In the NFL, they are ALL NFL running backs! If Mixon couldn’t run away with the job in college, then projecting him to do so in the NFL is a failed process.
Jeremy: The Bengals basically run a halfway house, so Mixon being drafted there is understandable. I’m not sure how this kid kept his scholarship. While Oklahoma is notorious for keeping and acquiring criminals, Mixon should have been permanently suspended from the team and not playing football. If Mixon had been a student at Ohio State or Michigan, he would have been released from the football team. He broke a girl’s face. He didn’t need to do it. It wasn’t self-defense. It wasn’t a mistake. It was the instinct of a character-flawed individual. A crime, period. A violent crime. Once it became obvious that he showed no remorse after the incident, I was convinced that he’s a violent punk and to never draft the future ex-con. Now, his responses about the incident are scripted and sound rehearsed. I still don’t hear the apologetic, remorseful person that says they made a terrible mistake. It seems like a joke to him. Yes, he will end up doing something else down the line. You can have him, Cincinnati. Low hanging fruit is just too compelling for Mike Brown, so enjoy another rotten apple. You have several others in Pacman Jones and Vontaze Burfict, so Joe will fit right in. He could have killed that girl, and he shouldn’t have been allowed to keep playing football on scholarship after that incident. The whole thing stinks. I’m not touching him in rookie drafts. If he’s available when I’m on the clock, I will either select a different player or trade the pick. And this all distracts us from the part about him being overrated altogether.
The top offensive player in this draft is Christian McCaffrey, not to mention the top RB, despite the results of this silly Twitter poll that demonstrate 56% of respondents are totally nuts:
Are you drafting Joe Mixon before Christian McCaffrey? If so, please reply with additional info. (mostly so I can be in leagues with you).
— Dynasty Madman (@DFF_Madman) April 11, 2017
Ishmael Zamora & KD Cannon Went Undrafted. Why? – John Di Bari
The short answer is that they’re both not as good at football as the fantasy football community believed going into draft season. Plain and simple. If anything was made clear by the 2017 draft, off-the-field issues are only important in name. Gareon Conley was accused of sexual assault the week of the draft – he still went early in the draft to the Raiders. Mixon was drafted in the early 2nd. Cleveland drafted Caleb Brantley, who allegedly knocked a woman’s tooth out prior to the draft. Dede Westbrook was taken in the 4th round after getting kicked out of 15-minute interviews at the combine, and he has two domestic violence arrests. Zamora and Cannon both fell because they are products of a system that doesn’t translate to NFL football. Look at recent Baylor players in the NFL, they’re all trash. Zamora beat up a puppy too, and only a complete psychopath would think that’s okay.
Numbers Don’t Lie – Chris Bean
A badass player that is still underrated.
Ameer Abdullah is a ******* Ninja. I don’t know what else to call a 5’ 9”, 205Lb. RB with a 10.74 Agility Score(98th percentile) and a 137.3 Burst Score(98th percentile). Abdullah is one of those little, light-blue quarter machine Ninjas with the added ability to teleport several feet in any direction. Abdullah had 23 touches in 2-games in 2016 before tearing a ligament in his left foot and ending his season. He amassed 101 rushing yards at 5.6 yards per carry, and 57 receiving yards on 5-targets.
Detroit’s run game never recovered after Abdullah’s injury. One of the league’s worst running teams behind Football Outsiders 31st Ranked offensive line in Adjusted Line Yards, and the 4th highest stuffed-run rate in the NFL for the 2nd year in a row. Detroit trotted out glorified pass-catcher Theo Riddick, rookie Dwayne Washington, and 2nd year back Zach Zenner – all to disastrous results. Not only did the offensive line fail to open running lanes, but the replacement RBs all failed to produce at the second level or beyond.
Did I mention Ameer Abdullah is a ******* Ninja? 30.4-Percent of his career carries were for >5 Yards behind that very same offensive line. Additionally, he has a career stuffed run rate of only 18%. Sounds a lot like the salve to their troubled run game.
The icing on the cake is: Detroit didn’t draft an RB this year. They didn’t sign a free agent RB. You know what Detroit did? They signed offensive tackle Rick Wagner for 5 Years/ $47.5mil and offensive guard TJ Lang for 3 years / $28.5m. Advice: Go get Ameer Abdullah and watch him explode in 2017!
Plugging the Gaps
IDP Players I’m drafting higher than average – JT Maynard
Josh Jones, Green Bay Safety – Watching this dude’s film was like watching a sledgehammer going through concrete. I just love the physical, “balls to the wall” approach of Mr. Jones. He will be an asset to the back-end of that Packer defense and the back-end of your rookie drafts. At NC State, he led the Wolfpack in tackles (109) last year while allowing zero touchdown passes in coverage. With a blazing 4.41 second 40-yard dash time and impressive and somewhat surprising combine numbers, I can see him starting by next year. So go and grab him in your IDP leagues!
Todd Davis, Broncos ILB – This underrated linebacker is almost going undrafted in some of my leagues. I picked him up last year and he performed well in the injury absence of Brandon Marshall. He is the starter now and I can see him getting 80-100 tackles this year. If Marshall is slowed again, expect the latter.
Cover – 2
Overrated and Underrated players to consider in your rookie IDP drafts – JT Maynard
Duke Riley, Falcons ILB – He may be a common name in certain IDP circles, but to newer dynasty owners he is probably not yet a household name. He checks all the boxes for me. Fast, tough, smart and gritty. He will add some bulk in the pros and will be reunited with his former college teammate Deion Jones in Atlanta – and become a starter sooner than some think. What a stupid swing and miss from New Orleans passing up this LSU beast in the draft! The Falcons have put together a tremendous defense. They cut the crust off that shit sandwich.
Raekwon McMillan, Dolphins ILB – I might burn in the frigid, boner-killing Ohio permafrost for this one, but I just don’t see it from this young man. Some say it was that he was surrounded by NFL-caliber talent which minimized his game. I just don’t buy it. It’s the same with Malik Hooker. Both players just don’t “bring the boom.” I love my Buckeyes, but Mr. McMillan needs to really step-up his game in the pros for me to turn this into a positive take. Too many grab tackles and too often getting engulfed by offensive lineman like a peewee player who has just wet himself because his mommy took his iPad away. If he does get some playing time behind an aging vet like Lawrence Timmons, I hope he makes the most of it.
I want to thank all of these guys for jawing with me about dynasty football and some recent controversies:
You can find me on Twitter: @DFF_Madman