Here’s a look at my player stock report for June 2017.
Buy: CJ Anderson
This seems like the easiest buy in dynasty right now. Before you call B.S., let’s take a look at the situation that 26-year-old CJ Anderson finds himself in out there in the Mile High city. Kapri Bibbs is gone via a draft weekend trade with San Francisco. DeVontae Booker is still in Denver, but could only manage 386 yards and 4 TDs last year in relief of Anderson. Booker was supposed to be the lead back the last nine games of the season after Anderson’s year ended due to a knee injury.
Booker ended up losing that starter’s role to the aforementioned Bibbs due to the fact that his play was terrible. The Broncos did bring in Jamaal Charles this past May, but it was on a very team-friendly contract and there is no guarantee that Charles will actually make the final roster.
Denver has a new defensive minded head coach, Vance Joseph, the former defensive coordinator of the Miami Dolphins. Denver will want to pound the rock, hide the sketchy QB play of Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch, and let that defense ball out. The offensive line got help in the form of free agent Ronald Leary, formerly of Dallas, and rookie Garrett Bolles.
Anderson is due $4.5 million in 2018 and 2019. There is no cap relief for Denver if they were to cut him in either 2018 or 2019. The Broncos’ cap is getting hit for the entire $4.5 million in 2018 and 2019, regardless of whether Anderson is on the roster or not. Common sense would dictate that he will still be a viable part of the Denver running game through 2019 based on his contract and the fact that he will only be 28 years old going into that 2019 season. Add it all up and it feels like a bounce back for Anderson, so strike now before this becomes obvious to your league mates.
A contender. Someone that might be one piece away from contending or winning it all. For instance, a team that could use depth behind the likes of DeMarco Murray or LeSean McCoy.
What to Pay
A late 1st round rookie pick feels right. The value between a late first and Anderson are about the same depending on which trade calculator you want to use, but an early second may get it done too. Hopefully, his owner isn’t a contender and would see that 2nd as part of his build. I would also consider offering a future late 2nd and a development player like Kenny Golladay or Jeremy McNichols. Anything more than this is an overpayment.
Sell: Tyreek Hill
This one feels obvious given the recent departure of Jeremy Maclin and all the positive momentum that it has had on Hill’s and to some degree Chris Conley’s value. Dynasty owners only have the rumor and innuendo that Hill is the de facto #1 now that Maclin is gone. I’m not buying it. He didn’t have one game over 100 yards receiving in 2016. He had two games where his average depth of target was negative, literally a negative ADOT in two separate games! Hill had three games where his average depth of catch was negative as well.
KC will do everything in their power to try and get Hill involved, but Travis Kelce is the target monster in KC with 117 in 2016. Kelce’s targets will only surge in Maclin’s absence. Hill is electric and may not be on your “sell” list right now if your league awards points for return yardage, but he doesn’t fit the bill of a true #1. Andy Reid loves a speedy WR, but Hill isn’t DeSean Jackson and Alex Smith doesn’t have a Michael Vick arm.
The gambler – Every league has one. The owner who likes exciting players and likes to talk about all the big plays that this guy is going to make. He’s probably not contending and really doesn’t care. He has no regard for rookie picks and this could be your ticket to a nice pay day.
What to Sell for
All you can get! And do it before the market cools. I’ve seen Hill go for rookie first-round draft picks since the news broke on Saturday June 3rd. I don’t see that price lasting long. A rookie 1st or early 2nd is a great return on investment for a guy that was on a lot of waiver wires at the start of the 2016 season.
Hold: Spencer Ware
Spencer Ware is a classic example of one of my favorite maxims, “Never negotiate out of fear.” We’re talking about a player that had 1368 yards from scrimmage last year in 14 games. The issue here is that Ware only had three rushing TDs and owners tend to overemphasize TDs, a metric that is tough to calculate. Now we add in rookie Kareem Hunt, who could be the hottest late first-round rookie out there. Everyone naturally assumes that Hunt is just going to stroll into KC and take the lead back role, but let’s look a little deeper.
Andy Reid, Kansas City’s Head Coach, had Brian Westbrook as a rookie in 2002. Westbrook had 46 carries in 2002 while incumbent Duce Staley had 269. Westbrook didn’t lead the Eagles in carries until his 3rd year in the league, which was 2004. Then there was the case of LeSean McCoy in 2009. McCoy did lead the Eagles in carries as a rookie with 155 carries, but those 155 carries were only 55% of the total RB carries in 2009.
Andy Reid will use Hunt and there is very little doubt about it, but there is no guarantee that Hunt is going to come in and be a bell cow back. Will he get the 214 carries that he had last year? Probably not, but he will get enough work to be a low-end RB2/Flex in 2017. Don’t give Spencer Ware away because of some random article that you’ve read in May or June.
No one, unless they’re paying retail.
What to Sell For
Retail, in my opinion, is two second-round rookie picks. That could be in 2017, 2018 or 2019 depending on when your rookie draft is scheduled. I would also consider a WR or TE with an ADP that matches Ware’s, which was player #70 according to the overall ADP for May 2017 on dynastyfootballfactory.com.
In May, WRs in that range were Golden Tate, Emmanuel Sanders, Martavis Bryant and Sterling Shepard. TEs in this range include Zach Ertz and Jimmy Graham.
Be nice to all your potential business partners in trades out there. Remember the advice of legendary poker player Amarillo Slim, “You can shear a sheep many times, but you can only skin him once.”
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