Trying to forecast the dynasty stock market can be a daunting process. We have to account for what seems to be limitless variables. Coaching changes, draft picks, age, and even contracts all factor into whether we should buy, hold, or sell a player.
“IT’S JUST BUSINESS. EVERYTHING IS JUST BUSINESS WITH US: BUY FOR A NICKEL, SELL FOR A DIME.” – SPIROS “VONDAS” –THE WIRE
In my opinion, no quote could ever better encapsulate the meaning of “Buying Low and Selling High” than the one posted above. Whereas Vondas was referring to something else entirely, this quote always comes to mind when pondering the trade market. Below I will analyze the buys, sells, holds from the Los Angeles Chargers. But I would like to make one point clear before we dive into those players. Each league and team construction will greatly determine if a player is a buy, sell, or hold. I hope this list will help you in your quest to dynasty dominance. Enjoy.
Philip Rivers, QB
Following the NFL draft, everybody is all sorts of excited for Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston with all their new weapons. While it is rightfully deserved, they’re overlooking a proven veteran signal caller on the West Coast, Philip Rivers. Yes, he’s 35, but he hasn’t missed a game in 11 years and is under contract until 2019. Did you know that Rivers is 8th all-time in both quarterback rating and passing touchdowns, and is 12th overall in passing yards? Rivers is as good as they come in real life and for fantasy. Unless you’re in total rebuild mode, let everybody else overpay for the unproven Mariota and Winston while you get Rivers for less. With most of his weapons healthy, the Chargers revamped his offensive line, and some additional playmakers added in the draft (Mike Williams)…Yes please, all of the Rivers in 2017.
Branden Oliver, RB
Branden Oliver looked good in 2014 when he finished as RB30 in PPR formats. He followed that up with a subpar 2015 and missed all of 2016 with a torn Achilles. That being said, Melvin Gordon has not played a full 16 games in either of his two NFL campaigns, and Oliver is the only decent backup the Chargers have on their roster. As he’s shown in 2014, he can shine as the Chargers pass catching option and change of pace back. If you’re an opposing defensive coordinator and the Chargers come out with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Antonio Gates, Hunter Henry and Branden Oliver on 3rd and 8, who is the guy you’re going to be paying the least attention to? Oliver is a sneaky, sneaky play in 2017, especially in best ball leagues. The last season he was healthy, he had 6 games where he scored double-digit fantasy points including back-to-back 22 and 28 point games. Do you like cheap, low-owned sleepers? Here’s your guy.
Hunter Henry, TE
There’s not much to say here. As a rookie Henry burst onto the scene and finished as a top 20 fantasy tight end while splitting time with Antonio Gates. He’s 22 years old and has already proven to be a more than capable contributor at the NFL level. The sky’s the limit when Gates retires…he might even be in the conversation for the overall fantasy TE1 sooner rather than later.
Melvin Gordon, RB
I’m not a fan of Wisconsin running backs in the NFL. Had you steered clear of every single Wisconsin running back in the NFL since Alan Ameche in the 1950s, you’d have fared very well…but I digress. Even if Melvin Gordon is the best back the school has ever produced, he went from a zero-touchdown rookie year to a 10-touchdown sophomore campaign. This turnaround was fueled by short-yardage touchdowns, and a heavy workload that came as a result of a number of injuries the Chargers suffered on the offensive side of the ball. He averaged 3.5 yards per carry in 2015, and if you take away his biggest gain of 48 yards last year, he averaged 3.7 yards per carry in 2016. I don’t trust him and would suggest you don’t either. His price is sky high – sell now, and get a haul in return.
Antonio Gates, TE
Since 2004, Antonio Gates has never finished worse than 13th in PPR scoring. Even as an oft-injured 36-year-old last year, he finished as a TE12. At this point, each season could be his last. If you’re pushing for a championship this year, he’s a hold…but if you’re not a contender, sell the ageless wonder while you still can get some value in return. Gates’ contract is up after this year, and with the younger, talented Henry behind him, it’s likely he’ll be retiring or find himself on another roster in 2018. Unless you’re getting points for Hall of Fame inductions, it’s now or never if you’re looking to get some return.
Keenan Allen/Tyrell Williams/Travis Benjamin/Mike Williams/Dontrelle Inman, WR
The talent around Philip Rivers is a positive for his fantasy value, but it’s a nightmare to project fantasy value for the receiving options on the Chargers. Until all of the training camp battles play out, it’s hard to know who is who and what is what; Players returning from injury, unknown rookie commodities, it’s a depth chart mystery galore in the City of Angels. At this point, if you have any of these players you just need to hold them until their roles get defined. It’s going to be fun to watch the Chargers in 2017, and hopefully, your guy is the player who emerges among these pass catchers.
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